Latest news with #JuanSoto
New York Times
5 hours ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Five bats fantasy baseball managers can actually drop, based on projections
If you stick closely to projections (as I do) and play a lot of keeper leagues (as I do), you take the long view on hitters most of the time. They'll come back around and play to the talent levels they've shown before, of course, why wouldn't they? Projections look at the sum of a player and put together the good times and the bad times and produce the most likely outcomes, and usually, those are about as rosterable as they were when you acquired the player. Advertisement But sometimes even the projections move enough on a player that we should recalibrate our feelings. If you've lost the projection systems, you've lost your last defender. To see which players have seen their projections move the most, I took preseason OOPSY projections from Jordan Rosenblum and compared them to his rest-of-season projections. Here are the 15 players who have seen their projections move downward the most compared to preseason expectations. I've listed them along with their Yahoo roster rates. There are already some obvious flaws with this approach. There are the hitters who might have taken a haircut but are still projected among the best hitters in the game, like Juan Soto, Mike Trout, and Gunnar Henderson. Nobody is advocating dropping these players. League average OPS is .712, and they're all 100-plus points clear of that, even with their reduced projections. There are also hitters here who will provide fantasy value with their legs, as Matt McLain, Michael Harris II, and, to a lesser extent, Kristian Campbell and Spencer Steer are non-zeroes on the basepaths. And then there are players who nobody had rostered anyway, like Joey Ortiz. Ahem. So let's try this another way. Which hitters have seen their OPS projections drop at least 10 points, but are sorted by the worst OPS projections (minimum 250 projected plate appearances)? Surely these players are not great, and maybe also on the precipice of losing their jobs? Nobody on this list was projected to have a league average OPS, and then they played so poorly that they saw their projections drop further. Speed once again is a complicating factor, but it's still instructive to note that while Parker Meadows has the defensive chops to keep his job despite poor OPS projections, the Miami Marlins just moved Xavier Edwards to second base. He's a sell in keeper formats if he has any value, because legs can only take a player so far. The next problem is that once you scan over to the roster levels, you'll see that nobody was really all-in on these players anyway, with a notable exception or two. Advertisement We still have the stolen base problem. Let's try one last way. Here are the players who have lost the most projected fantasy value since the preseason, using OOPSY in the FanGraphs auction calculator with 15-team Roto 5×5 settings. I've removed players who are currently in the minors or suffering from long-term injury, or who were projected for negative value to begin the season, in order to make this list more useful. This once again has some less-than-useful information. Nobody is still holding on to Orlando Arcia at this point since he lost his starting job and is a utility player, and ownership levels in a lot of the other categories are pretty low. Nobody is dropping Yordan Alvarez despite the change in projected outcomes. But there are also some interesting names on here for those who were holding out hope for players like Brandon Marsh and Lane Thomas — if they are basically underwater in 15-teamers with five outfielders, by sober projections, then there's no reason to keep holding them for the future in most leagues. Let's highlight five bats who have shown up on a lot of these lists but aren't slam-dunk drops at first glance. Recently, Adames has performed a little better, and that coincides with his rolling swing speed finally poking about the 75th percentile for the first time this season. But it's a long swing, and if you judge him instead by swing acceleration (which considers contact point), he just nudged above the 10th percentile. The thing is, we've seen this from Adames before, so it's not too surprising. Many of his numbers seem right in line with what he did in 2023, when he had a .217 average and hit 24 homers (except worse in the power department, really). That year, he was the 20th-best shortstop when all was said and done. Even if he picks it up and ends up near those numbers, the stolen bases aren't going to be there like last year, and maybe there's someone out there who can be better than 20th for you at the position? He's still a $3 player in 12-team leagues with a middle infield slot, according to OOPSY rest-of-season projections, but that's droppable territory if you see something better out there. Of the players highlighted here, McLain is the toughest drop for a couple of reasons, though. First, second base is a really tough position this year. It's only produced six players who would be above-replacement players without the positional adjustment (shortstop has 16), and the lesser-rostered, better-projected second basemen ahead of McLain (Jonathan India, Luis Garcia Jr.) aren't slam-dunk decisions. Second, he's stealing bases and likely to finish the season with at least a shot at a 20-20 season. But the batting average isn't going to be great, and the power, which wasn't supported fully by his batted-ball stats, has not returned (and wasn't helped by a loss of bat speed). If the steals won't mean that much to you, McLain could be a drop in shallower leagues. Advertisement Everything has gone badly for Santander in Toronto. The strikeout rate went up (career-worst), the fly-ball rate went down, the hard-hit rate went down (five-year low), as did his barrel rate (career-worst) and max exit velocity (career-worst). His bat has lost over a mile per hour of bat speed (to the point that it's almost average from the left side), and his swing has gotten flatter in terms of tilt, so he's just pulling balls on the ground now. Jorge Soler, who is rostered in a third of the leagues as Santander, is projected to be better. In the deepest leagues, you just have to hold and hope, but projections have him under $3 going forward in 15-team leagues with players like Alec Burleson and the returning Luke Raley ranked higher. You probably have a better option on your wire versus waiting for him to get healthy. Steer's lack of bat speed this year can indeed be most likely attributed to his spring injury to the shoulder, but it's also true that there's no evidence in his rolling swing speed graphs that the joint is feeling any better in recent days. Keeper league players have a harder decision — Steer could use a full healthy offseason, most likely, and any return of bat speed could make him a viable 20-10 guy again — but in leagues playing just for 2025, the four stolen bases aren't enough to hang around for. Christian Encarnacion-Strand projects better and is out there in nearly three-quarters of Yahoo leagues, and if you need some stolen bases, Jake Cronenworth is rostered in fewer leagues and projects better. There are better options than Steer right now in all but the deepest leagues. In 12-team leagues with a middle infielder slot, OOPSY projects Story to be below replacement, which might be surprising at first. He has double-digit homers and steals and has had his moments this year. But the real tragedy of leaving Coors Field behind is that his batting average is no longer buoyed by altitude. Now he strikes out 30 percent of the time and has the batting average to match. It's a bit like McLain — how much batting average do you want to pay for your 20/20 season — but at a position where there are more options. Even if you want power and speed, Masyn Winn and Ezequiel Tovar might be able to help you without hurting in batting average as much. Looking at roster rates, though, Story has probably already been dropped in most leagues where he should have been, and is a tentative hold in the deepest leagues. (Photo of Willy Adames: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Mets Send Message to Juan Soto After Major News on Thursday
Mets Send Message to Juan Soto After Major News on Thursday originally appeared on Athlon Sports. New York Mets superstar Juan Soto didn't look like himself to start the season, but it was only a matter of time before he regained his powers at the plate. Advertisement The four-time All-MLB honoree slashed .232/.347/.345 in April and .219/.345/.448 in May, but he was slashing .340/.522/.700 in June ahead of Wednesday's 0-for-4 against the Atlanta Braves. If he continues to bat over .300 in the coming months, the Mets could run away with the NL's top seed. New York entered Thursday atop the NL East despite Soto slashing just .248/.387/.462 on the season. For context, his career slash line is .282/.418/.527. New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto (22)© Eric Canha-Imagn Images Soto reminded the baseball world what he's capable of with his latest history-making accomplishment on Thursday. The 26-year-old notched his 1,000th career hit, joining Mickey Mantle and Mel Ott as the only players to ever record 1,000 hits, 700 walks, and 200 homers before turning 27 (h/t Bob Nightengale of USA Today). He turns 27 on Oct. 25. Advertisement The Mets reacted to this news with a post on X. Soto signed with the Washington Nationals as an international free agent in 2015 before making his MLB debut in 2018. The native Dominican was the runner-up for the NL Rookie of the Year Award that season and helped lead the Nationals to their first-ever championship the following season. Soto won the NL batting title in 2020 with a .351 average and was the NL MVP runner-up in 2021. The Nationals traded him to the San Diego Padres in August 2022, who then sent him to the New York Yankees in December 2023. He then helped lead the Yankees to their first World Series appearance in 15 years before signing a record 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets in December 2024. Advertisement Related: New Report on Juan Soto's Treatment of Mets Teammates Related: Mets Legend Issues Strong Message to Juan Soto After Third Straight Loss This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 19, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
12 hours ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
MLB Reacts to Juan Soto Announcement on Thursday
MLB Reacts to Juan Soto Announcement on Thursday originally appeared on Athlon Sports. The New York Mets entered Thursday night with a 45–29 record, sitting atop the NL East. However, they're currently riding a five-game losing streak, with their last two defeats coming against division rival Atlanta Braves. Advertisement Despite the skid, Mets superstar Juan Soto has started to find his rhythm following a slow start to the season. Over his last 11 games, he's recorded five multi-hit performances, three home runs, six RBIs, and 12 runs scored—while continuing to post an elite walk rate that has helped him consistently reach base. On Thursday night, Soto added to his hot stretch with a hit in his first at-bat—and it was a milestone moment. The Mets and MLB announced that the hit was the 1,000th of his career, a feat achieved by just 1,346 players in MLB history. Even more impressive: Soto is still only 26 years old, with plenty of baseball ahead. MLB celebrated the moment on social media, posting, 'Congratulations to Juan Soto on collecting hit No. 1,000!' Soto is just the third player in MLB history—joining legends Mel Ott and Mickey Mantle—as the only players to record at least 1,000 hits, 200 home runs, and 700 walks before turning 27. Advertisement After beginning his career with the Washington Nationals—where he won a World Series in 2019—Soto had brief stints with the San Diego Padres and the New York Yankees. Yet, this past offseason, he made headlines by signing the largest contract in professional sports history: a 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets. New York Mets right fielder Juan SotoSam Navarro-Imagn Images Through his first 74 games in blue and orange, Soto is batting .248—a mark that's shown recent improvement—while tallying 14 home runs, 37 RBIs, and posting an .849 OPS. Related: Exciting Juan Soto News Emerges Before Mets-Braves Game This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 19, 2025, where it first appeared.
New York Times
13 hours ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Mets will need offense to step up to snap losing streak
ATLANTA — Before this week, the New York Mets' last memory of the visiting clubhouse at Truist Park was of revelry — of Freixenet and Coors Light and of demons exorcised in unforgettable fashion. And so the quiet in that clubhouse Thursday night, as players sat expressionless at their lockers, looking down at their phones, felt all the more conspicuous. Advertisement The Mets' malaise stretched into a second straight series sweep, this time a more demoralizing one to the division rival Atlanta Braves. New York's sixth straight loss came in a 7-1 rout, done in by a pitching staff that issued nine walks and a lineup that went 1-for-22 to close the game. 'These are good teams,' Brandon Nimmo said, 'and you need to play good baseball to beat them.' The Mets have not been playing good baseball over the past week. Manager Carlos Mendoza pointed to the starting rotation as a primary culprit: New York's starters, the strength of the roster until this point, have allowed 19 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings during the streak. But while the rotation might be a cause of the losing streak, the solution resides elsewhere. It's time for the Mets offense to step up. 1️⃣,0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ career hits for @JuanSoto25_! — New York Mets (@Mets) June 19, 2025 That's the way the Mets were built — for an elite offense to carry a pitching staff whose job was to keep it in games. Over nearly half the season, it has played out the other way, with New York's hurlers exceeding every expectation and shouldering the load in a 45-30 start. But that pitching staff is reeling and will be for at least a couple more weeks. It has lost Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill for at least the next month. Though Frankie Montas is returning next week, it's with a boatload of questions fueled by a 12-plus ERA over six rehab starts. The Mets will look to rookie Blade Tidwell on Friday in Philadelphia opposite Zack Wheeler. And the offense is in one of its worst slumps of the season. Over the past six games, New York's lineup is hitting .204 with a .279 on-base percentage, .289 slugging percentage and .568 OPS. Pretty much everyone outside of Starling Marte and Tyrone Taylor is going through it. Francisco Lindor is hitting .136, Ronny Mauricio .150, Juan Soto and Jeff McNeil .190 in that stretch. Advertisement 'It starts with smaller thinking,' Nimmo said. 'You can't try to do it all at once. You try to win the battles you control. That's where you start, and you go from there.' Yes, part of that is the terrific starting pitching the Mets are facing nightly. Unfortunately, that's not going to change soon. After getting Spencer Schwellenbach, Chris Sale and Spencer Strider at Truist Park this week, they'll see Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo (around promising rookie Mick Abel) in Philadelphia this weekend. They're in line to see Sale and Strider again next week. (They should miss Paul Skenes in Pittsburgh, for what that's worth.) 'That's the ultimate test,' co-hitting coach Jeremy Barnes said. 'We're going to see what plays out over the next little bit and how we respond to it. From that, we'll make adjustments.' 'We've just got to be able to dictate the at-bats,' Mendoza said before Thursday's loss. 'These guys are not only good, but they're going to attack. We've got to be able to attack them, too.' How do you dictate the at-bat against a pitcher with, say, Sale's stuff? 'We have to be aggressive,' Mendoza said. 'When he's coming in the zone, we've got to be able to put pressure on him. They are who they are, but we also know we're a good offensive team, too. We've got a lot of good hitters here.' The Mets did that for about a dozen batters Thursday against Strider. Five of those 12 reached, and even the outs were hard-hit. In the next dozen hitters against Strider, only four put the ball in play (one walk, seven strikeouts). Strider got ahead 0-2 on four of those seven strikeouts. That was a theme of the series. Of New York's 18 total hits, 11 came in the first three innings. In three games, the Mets generated five at-bats with a runner in scoring position after the third inning — three of which came when they were handed a ghost runner on second in Friday's 10th inning. Advertisement 'We've had a few bad games, but I don't think our offense is terrible the last few games,' Nimmo said. 'I think it's right around the corner.' It better be. This lineup was constructed to be the club's foundation. Just check out the level of investment. New York's top six hitters Thursday night are making $163.5 million this season combined. Their six regular starting pitchers so far this season? They're making $41.9 million. And so it's time for the offense to come out and beat a strong starter. It's time to win a game in which their own starter doesn't have it. The Mets have allowed as many as five runs in a game 17 times since the end of April; they've won only one of those games (against the historically bad Colorado Rockies, of course). It's time for the offense to carry the load. (Photo of Juan Soto reacting after an eighth-inning strikeout: Brett Davis / Imagn Images)
CBS News
14 hours ago
- Sport
- CBS News
Mets swept out of Atlanta, losing streak now at season-high 6 games
Matt Olson hit a three-run double, Spencer Strider struck out eight in six innings and the Atlanta Braves beat the Mets 7-1 on Thursday night to complete a series sweep that extended New York's season-worst losing streak to six games. New York's latest sloppy defeat, paired with Philadelphia's 2-1 win over Miami, left the Mets and Phillies tied for first place in the NL East heading into their upcoming weekend series. Mets pitchers issued nine walks, including a career-high six in 4 2/3 innings by starter Clay Holmes (7-4), who allowed three runs. Huascar Brazobán walked three while giving up four runs in relief. Strider (2-5) yielded one run and five hits with one walk. Olson added another double and two walks, and scored three runs. The Braves have won three straight and seven of nine. They trail the Mets and Phillies by 10 games one week after they were 15 games out of first place. KEY MOMENT With the bases loaded and Holmes facing a 3-2 count to Drake Baldwin in the fifth, the right-hander had an issue with the PitchCom device in his cap. After a new device was delivered from the dugout, Holmes threw ball four to force in a run that gave Atlanta a 2-1 lead. Brazobán followed with another bases-loaded walk, to Ozzie Albies. KEY STAT Juan Soto's single with two outs in the first for the Mets was his 1,000th career hit at age 26. UP NEXT The Mets had not announced a scheduled starting pitcher for Friday night's opener of a three-game series at Philadelphia. Right-hander Justin Hagenman, who was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse, was expected to be the answer or serve as a bulk reliever behind an opener, but he was needed as the Mets' second reliever against Atlanta. The Braves are expected to call up 20-year-old rookie Didier Fuentes for his major league debut to start at Miami and provide extra rest for the regular members of the rotation.
