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Express Tribune
2 hours ago
- Politics
- Express Tribune
Death wish or stress test?
Listen to article In the past three years, humanity has seemed to teeter on the brink of extinction. When the war in Ukraine began, many of us struggled to visualise the full scope of the threat we faced. Any miscalculation could have brought the war to Europe, where two nuclear powers sit. Further escalation could have led to an extinction-level event — once the nightmare of the Cold War — by dragging the US directly into war with Russia. Last month, we witnessed another episode of extreme brinkmanship, where — compelled by the desire to maintain its muscular image — a populist government afflicted with a shrinking mandate risked full-blown war with its neighbour. India's policy decisions these days seem to have little to do with rationality. It often convinces itself that it can offset the consequences of its actions through a mix of diplomacy, espionage, propaganda and wealth. Since few have dared to challenge the incumbents in New Delhi, their incremental brinkmanship (2016, 2019, 2025) did not come into sharp relief — until now. But the fact is that had President Trump not intervened, or had Pakistan's conventional defences not held, we could have been trying to survive in a nuclear wasteland. Now, yet another gift that keeps giving: Israel's incremental belligerence. First Gaza, then Lebanon, Syria, Yemen — and now Iran. In Iran, it seeks to destroy its nuclear programme and, if possible, overthrow the state. Israel now claims to have destroyed most of the nuclear infrastructure above ground, but lacks the bunker-busting munitions to destroy the underground facility at Fordow. That is why it urges the US to enter the fray. This is a curious development, because until recently, Israel had no shortage of bunker busters. Consider the indigenously developed Spice systems and Rafael's Rocks family of weapons. For instance, the MPR-500 is a smart bomb designed to wreak havoc underground. In Gaza, while claiming to destroy Hamas's fortified underground network of tunnels, Israel regularly used 5,000-lb GBU-28 laser-guided bunker-busting bombs — originally deployed during Operation Desert Storm. A Jerusalem Post report dated 28 September 2024, titled 'Inside Israel's Operation: Step-by-Step Breakdown of How Nasrallah Was Eliminated' by Amir Bohbot stated: Netanyahu gave the go-ahead for the targeted assassination that would shake the Middle East and the Arab world. The Air Force command gave the green light to arm aircraft with bunker-busting bombs. You're telling me that after invading a potentially nuclear-capable country, Bibi Netanyahu suddenly realised, "Oops, we didn't check the depleted inventory"? That would be like Elon Musk taking you to Mars and suddenly realising he forgot to arrange water or oxygen for the colony. What is going on? Bibi can be accused of many things, but such debilitating oversight is not one of them. When you listen to Israeli hawks in the media, you realise they're talking about altogether different weaponry. They want the US to use low-yield nuclear weapons. You may rightly ask: Israel is a nuclear state — why would it need another country's help when it could act alone? Because it has long maintained a façade of deliberate nuclear ambiguity. In fact, the Israeli nuclear programme is the Middle East's worst best-kept secret. Even so, since when has Israel cared about international law or diplomatic niceties? The objective is clear: to drag the US into a murder-suicide pact — at least diplomatically. Once it becomes America's war, Israel cannot be held solely accountable for starting such a large-scale conflict. But revisit the unofficial ask: low-yield nukes are still nukes. Use them to destroy a nuclear facility, and imagine the ramifications — not only for the country being attacked, but for the international order. A nuclear incident could trigger a chain of events that draws other nuclear-capable great powers into the fight. That is the very definition of a world war. It is as if the human race has suddenly developed a death wish. Why else would anyone risk nuclear war if they and their people want to live? Given that the triggers for such wars are usually a mix of national anxiety and rage over human loss (Pahalgam, 7 October), where leaders ostensibly vow to avenge such deaths and ensure nothing like it happens again — how can they not see that the consequences of their actions could lead to far wider devastation, killing far more people and destabilising global security? How many millions would have died if India and Pakistan had turned nuclear? Do these missile exchanges between Israel and Iran not kill people on both sides? Imagine the fear and anxiety among civilians across the region. I'm not preaching. I'm asking legitimate questions. Do these leaders not mind the annihilation of the human race? If they don't — why? It is easy to explain this fatalism within the Abrahamic faiths. All three major monotheistic religions share a similar eschatology. While the timing of the end is still a matter of debate in Islam, Christianity and Judaism, many believe that the three millennia allotted to human existence are over, and therefore the end is nigh. Despite considerable wiggle room, Muslims face a different dilemma: since no specific date is given, many feel free to see the end whenever they want. After every few centuries, they find themselves in a bind and start thinking the end is near — ergo, Al-Qaeda and ISIS's end-times wars. This may explain the tragedy of monotheists. But why are people of polytheistic or pantheistic orientation — like many Indians — not afraid to risk it all? That's when you realise that religious fanaticism might be one factor driving brinkmanship, but eschatology is not the sole reason. We don't know what is in Bibi or Modi's hearts, but we know that they excel at exploiting religiosity and the fanaticism of division to stay in power. To do so, they also promise their people a resurrection of golden past glories in a modern setting. But in Bibi's case, it is clear that even that promise is a means, not an end. As I've mentioned before, he faces many criminal charges — some so petty that mentioning them alongside a prime minister's title seems insulting. In India's case, it is apparent that its ruling elite wants China and America to start a war that will weaken both, allowing India to silently claim the superpower crown. If I weren't Popperian in outlook, I would have thought that history either seeks the destruction of humankind or intends to subject it to a stress test. But even so, my paranoid mind — shaped by science fiction and conspiracy thrillers — keeps pushing me in that direction.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump undecided on joining war on Iran as Khamenei warns him not to attack
Donald Trump said he had not decided whether or not to take his country into Israel's new war, as Iran's supreme leader said the US would face 'irreparable damage' if it deployed its military to attack. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel had made a 'huge mistake' by launching the war, in his first comments since Friday. 'The Americans should know that any US military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage,' he said in a statement read out by a presenter on state TV. Tehran was preparing missiles and other equipment to strike US bases in the region if Washington joined the war, the New York Times reported, citing US intelligence officials. Hours later, Trump said Iranian officials had made contact to request a meeting and proposed a visit to the White House. He told reporters on the White House lawn that he felt 'it's very late to be talking' but he had not yet made a final decision about entering the war. 'I may do it, I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do,' he said. That lack of clarity about what comes next may extend to the president himself, who was still in deal-making mode, one ally said. The US is understood to want to keep all its options open to exert maximum pressure on Tehran. It was moving air tankers for midair refuelling to Spain and Greece, where they could be used to supply B-2 bombers on a long run from the Whiteman airbase in Missouri to Iran. It is understood that no request has been put to the UK for use of the Diego Garcia airbase in the Indian Ocean for a B-2 bombing run or of the Akrotiri airbase in Cyprus for the refuelling aircraft, though the latter is considered likely. Other US military assets are on their way. The Pentagon ordered the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier to sail from Singapore to the Middle East, which is expected to take between five and seven days. The USS Carl Vinson is already in the Arabian Sea. Qatar and Oman were trying to mediate a ceasefire, the Jerusalem Post reported, hours after at least one aircraft associated with the Iranian government flew to Muscat in Oman, flight tracking showed. Iran sent a message that it was willing to negotiate a deal with the US, but Israel needed to 'calm things down', a source told the Jerusalem Post. Trump's claim that Iranians had offered to come to the White House for talks prompted an enraged response from Iran's mission to the UN. 'No Iranian official has ever asked to grovel at the gates of the White House,' the mission posted on a social media account. The foreign ministers of the UK, France and Germany are planning to meet their Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, in Geneva on Friday in what could represent a potential diplomatic breakthrough after five days of Israeli bombing. Final confirmation from Tehran is still pending, but if confirmed it would represent the first face-to-face diplomatic meeting since the crisis began. In a social media post late on Wednesday, Araghchi wrote that Iran 'remain[s] committed to diplomacy. As before, we are serious and forward-looking in our outlook.' The talks in Geneva will focus on how Iran is willing to reduce or close its nuclear programme, and will also be attended by the EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas. But Araghchi has refused to meet Donald Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, on the grounds that the US is supporting Israel's attacks. The Trump administration had initially distanced itself from the war, saying Israel had acted alone, but in recent days it has stepped up its rhetoric and its military presence in the Middle East. Iran's Fordow nuclear facility is at the heart of demands for the US to join the war, both in Israel and from hawks in Washington. Damage from strikes on other facilities could be repaired within months, Israeli military officials and nuclear experts say. Destroying or crippling Fordow would have much more of a long-term impact. It is buried deep below a mountain near the holy city of Qom, and the only munitions that could possibly damage or destroy it are the most powerful US bunker-buster bombs, which only US B-2s can carry. Israel's national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, said the war had been an entirely Israeli campaign but it 'will not end without damaging Fordow', in an interview with Israel's Channel 12 television. If the US does not join, Israel may still have military options but they would be riskier and more complicated. It could fly in special operations troops for a ground operation, like one that targeted a missile factory in Syria last year, or disable Fordow by attacking critical support systems such as its power supply. Israel says it launched the war in self-defence, to destroy Iran's nuclear programme, but Netanyahu and several ministers have made no secret of their desire for regime change. Trump reportedly vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Khamenei, and critics have questioned why Israel targeted civilian institutions such as the state broadcaster. On Wednesday, the defence minister, Israel Katz, said Israel was bombing 'symbols of power' in Iran and suggested the regime could be in its last days. 'A tornado is sweeping through Tehran,' he wrote in a post on X. 'Symbols of power are being bombed and collapsing, from the broadcasting authority and soon other targets, and masses of residents are fleeing. This is how dictatorships collapse.' The escalating conflict has prompted a growing international chorus of concern. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, offered to mediate between Iran and Israel, after one of his top diplomats urged Washington not to consider 'speculative options' for intervention. On a sixth night of attacks, Israel bombed a site that manufactured uranium centrifuges and also said it had targeted a missile component factory and destroyed five attack helicopters. Iran's military has been battered but not fully destroyed. An advanced Israeli drone was shot down on Wednesday, despite Israel claiming control of the skies over western Iran and Tehran. Overnight, Iran fired 15 missiles at Israel. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Israeli strikes had hit two centrifuge productions in Iran, one in the capital and another just outside it. Iran has reported at least 224 deaths from Israeli attacks, mostly civilians, although it has not updated that toll for several days. A US-based watchdog, Human Rights Activists in Iran, says at least 585 people have been killed and more than 1,300 injured. Iranian attacks on Israel have killed 24 people, all civilians. Israeli air defences have intercepted most of the 400 missiles fired by Tehran, with only about 10% hitting targets inside the country. Israel could become more vulnerable if the war continues much longer as supplies of its most effective air-defence missiles are running low, the Wall Street Journal has reported, citing a US official. Its Arrow interceptors are complex missiles that cost several million dollars each, and they have a long production process. Related: Israel's assumption US would get drawn into Iran war is being put to the test Although the US has been supporting Israel's defences with Thaad ground-based systems, interceptions by F-16 jets and missiles launched by the navy, it does not have unlimited supplies of these defensive systems either. Iran is thought to still have a substantial proportion of the estimated 2,000 missiles that were in its arsenal at the start of the war. Israeli strikes have focused on launcher systems that are needed to fire them. Additional reporting by Quique Kierszenbaum
France 24
2 days ago
- Politics
- France 24
Iran-Israel war: a lifeline for Netanyahu?
On the eve of launching strikes on Iran, his government looked to be on the verge of collapse, with a drive to conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews threatening to scupper his fragile coalition. Nearly two years on from Hamas's unprecedented attack in 2023, Netanyahu was under growing domestic criticism for his handling of the war in Gaza, where dozens of hostages remain unaccounted for. Internationally too, he was coming under pressure including from longstanding allies, who since the war with Iran began have gone back to expressing support. Just days ago, polls were predicting Netanyahu would lose his majority if new elections were held, but now, his fortunes appear to have reversed, and Israelis are seeing in "Bibi" the man of the moment. – 'Reshape the Middle East' – For decades, Netanyahu has warned of the risk of a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran -- a fear shared by most Israelis. Yonatan Freeman, a geopolitics expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said Netanyahu's argument that the pre-emptive strike on Iran was necessary draws "a lot of public support" and that the prime minister has been "greatly strengthened". Even the opposition has rallied behind him. "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is my political rival, but his decision to strike Iran at this moment in time is the right one," opposition leader Yair Lapid wrote in a Jerusalem Post op-ed. A poll published Saturday by a conservative Israeli channel showed that 54 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the prime minister. The public had had time to prepare for the possibility of an offensive against Iran, with Netanyahu repeatedly warning that Israel was fighting for its survival and had an opportunity to "reshape the Middle East." During tit-for-tat military exchanges last year, Israel launched air raids on targets in Iran in October that are thought to have severely damaged Iranian air defences. Israel's then-defence minister Yoav Gallant said the strikes had shifted "the balance of power" and had "weakened" Iran. "In fact, for the past 20 months, Israelis have been thinking about this (a war with Iran)," said Denis Charbit, a political scientist at Israel's Open University. Since Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Netanyahu has ordered military action in Gaza, against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon and the Huthis in Yemen, as well as targets in Syria where long-time leader Bashar al-Assad fell in December last year. "Netanyahu always wants to dominate the agenda, to be the one who reshuffles the deck himself -- not the one who reacts -- and here he is clearly asserting his Churchillian side, which is, incidentally, his model," Charbit said. "But depending on the outcome and the duration (of the war), everything could change, and Israelis might turn against Bibi and demand answers." – Silencing critics – For now, however, people in Israel see the conflict with Iran as a "necessary war," according to Nitzan Perelman, a researcher specialised in Israel at the National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) in France. "Public opinion supports this war, just as it has supported previous ones," she added. "It's very useful for Netanyahu because it silences criticism, both inside the country and abroad." In the weeks ahead of the Iran strikes, international criticism of Netanyahu and Israel's military had reached unprecedented levels. After more than 55,000 deaths in Gaza, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, and a blockade that has produced famine-like conditions there, Israel has faced growing isolation and the risk of sanctions, while Netanyahu himself is the subject of an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes. But on Sunday, two days into the war with Iran, the Israeli leader received a phone call from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has held talks with numerous counterparts. "There's more consensus in Europe in how they see Iran, which is more equal to how Israel sees Iran," explained Freeman from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Tuesday that Israel was doing "the dirty work... for all of us." The idea that a weakened Iran could lead to regional peace and the emergence of a new Middle East is appealing to the United States and some European countries, according to Freeman. © 2025 AFP
Int'l Business Times
2 days ago
- Politics
- Int'l Business Times
Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline For Netanyahu?
The Iran-Israel war has helped strengthen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu domestically and overseas, just as his grip on power looked vulnerable. On the eve of launching strikes on Iran, his government looked to be on the verge of collapse, with a drive to conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews threatening to scupper his fragile coalition. Nearly two years on from Hamas's unprecedented attack in 2023, Netanyahu was under growing domestic criticism for his handling of the war in Gaza, where dozens of hostages remain unaccounted for. Internationally too, he was coming under pressure including from longstanding allies, who since the war with Iran began have gone back to expressing support. Just days ago, polls were predicting Netanyahu would lose his majority if new elections were held, but now, his fortunes appear to have reversed, and Israelis are seeing in "Bibi" the man of the moment. For decades, Netanyahu has warned of the risk of a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran -- a fear shared by most Israelis. Yonatan Freeman, a geopolitics expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said Netanyahu's argument that the pre-emptive strike on Iran was necessary draws "a lot of public support" and that the prime minister has been "greatly strengthened". Even the opposition has rallied behind him. "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is my political rival, but his decision to strike Iran at this moment in time is the right one," opposition leader Yair Lapid wrote in a Jerusalem Post op-ed. A poll published Saturday by a conservative Israeli channel showed that 54 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the prime minister. The public had had time to prepare for the possibility of an offensive against Iran, with Netanyahu repeatedly warning that Israel was fighting for its survival and had an opportunity to "reshape the Middle East." During tit-for-tat military exchanges last year, Israel launched air raids on targets in Iran in October that are thought to have severely damaged Iranian air defences. Israel's then-defence minister Yoav Gallant said the strikes had shifted "the balance of power" and had "weakened" Iran. "In fact, for the past 20 months, Israelis have been thinking about this (a war with Iran)," said Denis Charbit, a political scientist at Israel's Open University. Since Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Netanyahu has ordered military action in Gaza, against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon and the Huthis in Yemen, as well as targets in Syria where long-time leader Bashar al-Assad fell in December last year. "Netanyahu always wants to dominate the agenda, to be the one who reshuffles the deck himself -- not the one who reacts -- and here he is clearly asserting his Churchillian side, which is, incidentally, his model," Charbit said. "But depending on the outcome and the duration (of the war), everything could change, and Israelis might turn against Bibi and demand answers." For now, however, people in Israel see the conflict with Iran as a "necessary war," according to Nitzan Perelman, a researcher specialised in Israel at the National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) in France. "Public opinion supports this war, just as it has supported previous ones," she added. "It's very useful for Netanyahu because it silences criticism, both inside the country and abroad." In the weeks ahead of the Iran strikes, international criticism of Netanyahu and Israel's military had reached unprecedented levels. After more than 55,000 deaths in Gaza, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, and a blockade that has produced famine-like conditions there, Israel has faced growing isolation and the risk of sanctions, while Netanyahu himself is the subject of an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes. But on Sunday, two days into the war with Iran, the Israeli leader received a phone call from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has held talks with numerous counterparts. "There's more consensus in Europe in how they see Iran, which is more equal to how Israel sees Iran," explained Freeman from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Tuesday that Israel was doing "the dirty work... for all of us." The idea that a weakened Iran could lead to regional peace and the emergence of a new Middle East is appealing to the United States and some European countries, according to Freeman. But for Perelman, "Netanyahu is exploiting the Iranian threat, as he always has."
Fox News
2 days ago
- Politics
- Fox News
Tugboats, cruise ships and flights: Israel begins emergency evacuation of citizens amid Iran war
JERUSALEM – An emergency flight carrying Israelis stranded overseas due to the fighting with Iran landed in Tel Aviv on Wednesday morning, part of a special government operation to get them home. Some 100,000 to 150,000 Israelis were abroad when Israel Defense Forces fighter jets began striking Iran overnight on Thursday - seeking to destroy the Islamic Republic's nuclear program and its cache of conventional weapons. Israel immediately closed its airspace, halting all flights into the country, but some people have been so desperate to get home - despite the volleys of deadly ballistic missiles that have caused widespread damage and fatalities – that they have found some unconventional routes. Yaakov Katz, an author and former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post, had his flight from the U.S. rerouted to Cyprus on Thursday night as Israel launched its opening strike on Iran. In a lengthy social media post, he described being stuck for two days before finding a tugboat to take him and eight others back to Israel. "Nine of us squeezed onto a vessel captained by Eli, a veteran Israeli sailor who didn't ask questions - just took the wheel," he wrote in the post. Speaking to Fox News Digital, Katz said the boat ride was not simple. "I can't say it was the best conditions, but it was definitely doable for 17 hours," he described, adding that he wanted to be with his wife and four children while "our country is at war." "The thought of not being at home and not being with my family was very difficult, and despite the risks and, of course, the war itself, there's no place I think any Israeli would want to be at a time like this," said Katz. Shimi Grossman, a volunteer with rescue agency Zaka, also said he could not wait. He has spent the last two days making his way from the U.S. to London, then to Sharm al-Sheikh in Egypt. Speaking to Fox News Digital from there, Grossman said he was now planning to take a taxi to Israel's southern border crossing in Taba. "I needed to get back so I could help the people in Israel," said the medical volunteer. Others have waited tensely, watching as the missiles hit the country, sending civilians running into shelters, toppling buildings and killing more than 20 people. "It's torture," Josh Hantman, who was watching from London, told Fox News Digital. On Tuesday, a missile hit a bus depot less than a mile from his home. "Watching a ballistic missile, the size of a bus falling near your home where you know your wife and small kids are, it's incredibly difficult," he said. Transport Minister Miri Regev said the government was working on a detailed plan to bring all Israel's citizens home. Domestic airlines, she said, had already been relocated abroad and were waiting for an all-clear to return with passengers. Regev also said a "maritime route" from Cyprus and Greece would soon open. Israelis have been warned from traveling through neighboring Egypt and Jordan. For Uzi Sofer, the rescue flights came too late. On a business trip to Boston last week, he was returning to celebrate his daughter's wedding on Wednesday. "I was supposed to fly back on Friday for the wedding this week," he said, describing how he managed to reach Budapest, Hungary, but was now waiting for a rescue flight. Realizing her father would not make it back in time, however, his daughter decided to postpone her nuptials until next month. "I'm not stressed now, but I still want to be in Israel, I want to be with my family," he said, adding, "God willing, in July, I will get to celebrate twice – the wedding and Israel's victory over Iran."
