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Al Jazeera
13 hours ago
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
‘Says one thing, does another': What's Trump's endgame in Iran?
Washington, DC – Over the past week, United States President Donald Trump has been issuing statements on Iran that appear to be contradictory. He has called for ending the war and hinted at peace coming 'soon', only to then suggest that assassinating Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could be an option for the US along with joining Israel's bombing campaign. In the latest turn, the White House said on Thursday that Trump will make a decision on whether to join the war within two weeks. These changes in the president's stance has some observers thinking that Trump may not have a clear strategy or endgame; rather he is being dragged to war by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been seeking US attacks on Iran for decades. Alternatively, could Trump be using his increasingly bellicose rhetoric against Iran to compel Tehran to agree to entirely give up its nuclear programme? If so, experts warn that brinkmanship could turn into an all-out war between the US and Iran. Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council, said Trump could be attempting to build leverage with threats to strongarm Iran into accepting his demands of 'total surrender'. 'I think he's trying to present himself as this madman who is unpredictable, and in so doing, he can then insist on this very hard line that Iran has refused to accept for decades of full dismantlement of its enrichment programme,' Abdi told Al Jazeera. Another possible explanation of Trump's latest statements, Abdi added, is that he is 'being taken for a ride by Bibi Netanyahu to commit the United States to a full-on war with Iran'. Iranian American analyst Negar Mortazavi also said that Trump is being 'outmaneuvered' by Netanyahu. 'I don't even know if President Trump knows what he wants,' Mortazavi told Al Jazeera. 'He campaigned as the president of peace … he promised he's going to end conflicts. Russia-Ukraine hasn't ended. Gaza has escalated, and he just let the third big Middle East war – which looks like a regime-change war – start under his watch. So, he says one thing he does another.' Israel launched its bombing campaign against Iran last week, two days before US and Iranian officials were set to meet for a sixth round of talks in Oman. Hours before the Israeli assault began, Trump renewed his commitment to diplomacy. And the initial US response to the Israeli strikes was to stress that Washington is not involved in the attacks. In subsequent days, however, Trump appeared to take credit for the Israeli bombing campaign. 'We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,' he wrote in a social media post on Tuesday, without elaborating on who the 'we' was. 'Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn't compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured 'stuff.' Nobody does it better than the good ol' USA.' Israel's strikes have targeted Iran's air defences, military and nuclear facilities, oil infrastructure and residential buildings, killing hundreds of people, including top military and political officials as well as many civilians. Iran has responded with hundreds of ballistic missiles that have killed at least 24 Israelis and left widespread destruction across the country. Israeli officials claim they are trying to destroy Iran's nuclear and missile programmes, but also note that their military campaign could lead to the collapse of the Iranian governing system, which they say would be a welcome development. However, it is widely believed that Israel would need US help to destroy Iran's main uranium enrichment facility, Fordow, which is buried inside a mountain. Mortazavi said war hawks and Israeli officials appear to be making the case to Trump that bombing Fordow will be an easy task. 'Instead of a regime change war – a devastating, unnecessary war with Iran, which he has been warning everyone and running against in his campaigns, they're just making this look like, 'Oh, you just use your bunker busters once and done.''But Iran has promised to retaliate harshly against any US attack. Thousands of US troops in the region could come under Iranian missile strikes. If the war escalates, Iran could also disrupt shipping lanes in the Gulf – a major lifeline for global energy. Iranian lawmakers have already suggested that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz that connects the Gulf to the Indian Ocean and through which 20 percent of the world's oil flows. Mortazavi said escalating the conflict will have 'catastrophic' consequences for the region. 'It will look like Iraq and Afghanistan combined, if not worse. Iran is a big country,' she said. In Iraq, Bush's regime-change war led to years of sectarian bloodshed and the rise of groups like ISIL (ISIS). In Afghanistan, US forces fought for 20 years after deposing the Taliban from the capital Kabul, only to see the group swiftly return to power as US troops withdrew. Even if Iran's governing system is toppled under US and Israeli blows, experts warn that US war hawks should be careful what they wish for. Iran is a country of more than 90 million people. The fall of the government could lead to internal conflict, displacement crises and regional – if not global – instability, analysts say. 'This is not a colour revolution. This is going to be war and chaos, potentially civil war, and unrest,' Mortazavi said. Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of the rights group DAWN, said that even if Trump is trying to gain leverage with his threats and is not seeking war or regime change in Iran, it's a risky strategy. 'The possibilities of the assaults on Iran escalating into not just a broader regional war, but potentially a global war, are extremely high,' Whitson told Al Jazeera. 'And so, continued belligerence and hostile rhetoric from President Trump is only throwing fuel on the fire.'
Middle East Eye
6 days ago
- Politics
- Middle East Eye
These questions are often ignored in the Israel-Iran story. We asked a panel of experts
Israel's attacks on Iran on Friday and the killing of several high-level figures in its military and science sectors have roiled the region. Tensions between the two nations are well-documented and longstanding, and both the US and Israel have carried out attacks like this, albeit on a smaller scale, on other prominent Iranian figures in the past. But why does this keep happening, and how is the US trying to distance itself from it? Can Israel go this far without expecting its own officials to be targeted? And exactly how dangerous is it to strike nuclear facilities on either side? Middle East Eye put the lesser-asked questions to five experts on international relations, conflict, nuclear proliferation, and the region at large. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters Here is what they said, edited for length and clarity. If the US was informed ahead of time and also supplied weapons to Israel, how can Secretary of State Marco Rubio say the US was not involved? Jamal Abdi, President, National Iranian American Council: "This is about creating a narrative of plausible deniability to potentially give Iran a face-saving way to continue talking to the United States [towards a new nuclear deal]. I don't think it's going to work, and I think Trump has already stepped all over that by now, basically taking credit, after seeming to distance the US." Anthony Wanis-St John, conflict resolution specialist, American University: "It's a verbal obfuscation. It means that operationally, we didn't support it." Miles Pomper, Senior Fellow, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation: "Because the Russians and the Chinese are affiliated with the Iranians, [the US will] try not to elevate the level to something beyond a regional conflict, to some global conflict." What is the difference between a 'preemptive strike' and a 'preventive strike'. Are they not both acts of war? Wanis-St. John: "These are certainly acts of war. There's no question about it, the Israelis like to call attention and use "preemptive" and "preventive" doctrines in their military strikes, since every country under international laws and norms is allowed to defend itself against aggression, but no country is supposed to lawfully commit aggressions against another country." Sam Ratner, policy director, Win Without War: "'Preemptive strike' does seem to be, from a definitional standpoint, a misnomer from Israel... this is a war of choice from [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu." Pomper: "It's not a preemptive strike, because that would be [like] the Six Day War, where the planes are on the tarmac and about to attack you, and then you hit them. 'Preventive' is a stop to a long-term threat to Israel. And you know the Iranians aren't shy about threatening." Negar Mortazavi, host of the Iran Podcast: "If it's not [couched as] preemptive, then it will be seen differently both from the public opinion and the global opinion... and we know that Israel cares a lot about its image, about its standing in the international community, and that has deteriorated very fast [since its war on Gaza]." The international community has long tolerated, and sometimes cheered on, Israel's string of extra-judicial assassinations. Why? Abdi: "Israel has a lot of political power and very important friends, most importantly, the United States." Mortazavi: "Powerful western countries have provided not just financial and armed support, but also diplomatic support and cover to Israel in the UN Security Council... the contradiction - or in a way, that oxymoron - that Israel is dealing with, is that they're a country that came out of the United Nations [in 1948]." Ratner: "In the post-9/11 era in particular, we've seen not just from the Israeli government, but from Iranian governments, including our own, in fact, and in particular our own, a real sort of generational change of attitude toward the use of assassination. We see it in our drone programme. The erosion of the norm against assassination is bad for diplomacy, bad for international relations, and bad for peace." Looking at the nature of Israel's attacks, can Iran retaliate in the same way? Wanis-St John: "I'm not sure that they can, operationally. I've never seen Iran do that against Israel.... you really need a lot of information about where [targets] are and where they're moving and how they're protected at night. That requires a lot of infrastructure. I'm not sure that the Iranians have that." Abdi: "If we're saying there are no laws, there is no accountability, you can conduct extra-judicial killings with impunity, then it would seem that would no longer restrain any actor from engaging in the same types of activities. But we know that that's not how the world works, and that certain countries have been given a carte blanche to do whatever they want." Mortazavi: "The condemnation would be so different... imagine if the same was done by Iran. Israeli officials also have homes and families." Why can't Iran have a nuclear bomb if Israel does? Mortazavi: "Iran is a signatory to the NPT, the Non-Proliferation Treaty. They have committed to not building nuclear weapons [and] they have a civilian programme. According to US intelligence, they don't have a weapons programme. At the same time, Israel has an undeclared weapons programme [and] many nuclear warheads. They're not a signatory to any international monitoring and safeguards." Ratner: "Our position on this is that we are opposed to nuclear proliferation and [in favour of] nuclear disarmament. Nuclear weapons are unimaginably destructive forces, and the more hands those weapons are in, the more likely that nuclear warfare becomes. If we add another country to the nuclear club, how many more countries will join?" Abdi: "Iran has threatened before that if something like [Friday's attacks] happened, they would abandon the NPT, and then there would be no international law saying they're not allowed to build nuclear weapons. They could do what Israel did, and develop a clandestine programme, and not be held accountable to any treaties or agreements or anything, and it's just the law of the jungle, and everybody gets a nuke." Israel has always said it wants to take out Iran's nuclear facilities. Isn't that dangerous? Pomper: "I think, as opposed to attacking a nuclear power plant that's got actual radioactive material, like Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, it's different... You don't have that kind of concentration. And so you may have environmental and other damages, but you're not likely to get a widespread radiation danger from it." Wanis-St John: "They shouldn't really be targeted if they're not military programmes. No one has said that the Iranians are building a nuclear weapon at this time. They don't claim to be making one, and nobody on the outside claims that they are making one... The Israeli attack is really meant to send them a signal that any progress towards weapons-grade enrichment is not going to be tolerated by Israel." Ratner: "The bigger concern... is that Iran has made clear statements and threats that if the Israeli government strikes its nuclear facilities, that it will respond by striking US targets in the region. And what we see from Benjamin Netanyahu is a desire for exactly that to happen. His interest is in starting a chain of events that drags the US into war on his side, because the Israeli military would have a very difficult time pursuing regime change in Iran on its own."
The Guardian
05-06-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Venezuela warns US is dangerous anyway in Trump travel ban retort
Venezuela has hit back over the Trump administration's travel ban by warning that the US itself is a dangerous place, while Somalia immediately pledged to work with Washington on security issues. The mixed responses came after Donald Trump signed a ban targeting 12 countries also including Afghanistan, Iran and Yemen in a revival of one of the most controversial measures from his first term. 'Being in the United States is a great risk for anyone, not just for Venezuelans,' Diosdado Cabello, the interior minister in Caracas, said after the announcement, warning citizens against travel there and describing the US government as fascist. 'They persecute our countrymen, our people for no reason.' Dahir Hassan Abdi, the Somali ambassador to the US, said in a statement: 'Somalia values its longstanding relationship with the United States and stands ready to engage in dialogue to address the concerns raised.' Calls early on Thursday to the spokesperson of Myanmar's military government were not answered. The foreign ministry of Laos did not immediately respond to a request for comment, Reuters reported. There was no immediate response from Iran, but Jamal Abdi, the president of the National Iranian American Council, said: 'The impact of the ban will once again be felt by Americans who were denied the ability to see their loved ones at weddings, funerals, or the birth of a child.' The move bans all travel to the US by nationals of Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. Trump imposed a partial ban on travellers from seven more countries: Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan and Venezuela. Some temporary work visas from these countries would be allowed, his administration said. The bans would go into effect on Monday 9 June, the White House said. Trump said the bans were spurred by a makeshift flamethrower attack on a Jewish protest in Colorado that US authorities blamed on a man they said was in the country illegally. Reuters and Agence France-Presse contributed to this story
