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The Age
2 hours ago
- Politics
- The Age
How could Iran hit back after US strike?
The US military has a presence at no fewer than 20 bases in the Middle East and the surrounding regions. The majority of these would be within the 2,000km range of Iran's Sejil-2 ballistic missile. Its bases in Iraq and Syria would likely be first on the hit list, with Tehran then turning its attention to outposts in Arab countries. Any attempt to strike US military facilities in the Middle East is likely to be less effective than the ballistic missile attack on two US bases in Iraq in January 2020 to avenge the assassination of Qassim Solemaini, ordered by Donald Trump at the end of his first term. Although the attacks on the two American bases caused no fatalities, partly because Iran had issued a warning in advance, 110 servicemen suffered concussions and other brain injuries because of the force of the impact. So great was the cause of the damage that it may have deterred Mr Trump from retaliating. Washington also has two hulking aircraft carriers, with a third en route, deployed to the Middle East, which would be considered prime targets for Iranian missiles. Targets Israel has proven just how hard ballistic missiles, which are fired up high into the Earth's atmosphere before travelling to the ground at supersonic speeds, can be to intercept, even with what is considered to be one of the most sophisticated air defence systems in the world. The US military possesses at least two tried and tested surface-to-air systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles – Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defence, known as THAAD. And they've slowly been redeploying these systems from Asia to the Middle East for months amid mounting tensions between its ally Israel and Iran, and its Islamist proxies. Its bases in Iraq – Erbil and Ain al‑Asad air bases – have Patriot batteries positioned at them, which have been previously used to fend off militant attacks. American commanders also ordered for Patriots to be removed from South Korea and placed at Isa Air Base, Bahrain, and Al Udeid Air Base in recent months. Capacity Of course, mass barrages of ballistic missiles can confuse and overwhelm these systems, as witnessed in both Israel and Ukraine. US servicemen and women will, however, be quietly confident that the Israel Defence Force has significantly reduced Iran's capacity to launch hundreds of missiles at once. Iranian salvos have drastically shrunk in size in recent days. What started as 100-projectile blitzes aimed at Israel has been reduced to just dozens of missiles being fired off at any one time. Iran's production capacity has been significantly eroded, with Israel striking various elements of the supply chain in recent days. Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert, said: 'Iran is heavily constricted in the missile domain. 'The likelihood that Iran can cause a large amount of damage is very, very slim. 'It could also be counterproductive because if you strike American infrastructure, there will be an even greater cost because you risk the Americans getting involved and really getting involved. So I think that's also a huge political consideration.' Proxies Iran's network of regional proxies was always considered its first line of defence. Hezbollah and Hamas were responsible for keeping Israel's military occupied and unable to strike at the Islamic Republic. The Yemen-based Houthi rebels also distracted the West by targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Militant armed by Iran have been responsible for deadly attacks on the US base in Iraq, using one-way attack drones. It's most likely that the Houthi rebels will once again resume targeting American shipping containers travelling through the Red Sea. The militants had briefly paused attacks on American ships after Donald Trump ramped up strikes on the group. In Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah would likely carry out its threat to 'act directly against its [US] interests and bases across the region', if the US president joins the war against Iran. But Israel's decimation of these proxy groups - chiefly Hamas and Hezbollah - in the past year is one saving grace that will comfort the Americans. 'The fact that virtually the only missiles and drones that are launched against Israel right now are coming from Iran is striking,' Dmitri Alperovitch, chair of the Silverado Policy Accelerator think tank in Washington, said. Strait of Hormuz Tucked between the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf's western flank lies one of Tehran's most powerful weapons against the West. Nothing hurts a government more than the price of oil, and this narrow stretch of water between Oman and Iran is vital in the global supply. The Islamic Republic has the means to effectively shut down access to the strait, crippling shipping through the region, as there are no alternative routes. The threat of its closure is perhaps why the USS Nimitz, one of America's largest aircraft carriers, is being moved into the region. Iran could quite easily close the strait by mining it, repositioning mobile ballistic missile launchers, and using maritime drones. It employed similar tactics during the so-called Tanker Wars of the 1980s – although it never fully succeeded, largely due to Royal Navy and later US Navy efforts to escort commercial vessels through the Gulf. This, US officials fear, would keep American naval warships in the Persian Gulf. 'Mine clearance is one of the US Navy's few weaknesses,' Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy officer, wrote in the Telegraph this week. For Tehran, closing the strait is one of the most likely ways of bringing the US into the conflict. Mr Trump was happy to expend billions of dollars in strikes against Houthi rebels, the Iranian-backed militia, when they attempted to snarl up Western shipping through the Red Sea. The US president is acutely aware of global oil prices, and with a fifth of global petroleum shipped through Hormuz. Any blockages would likely lead to him sanctioning some strikes to restore shipping. The other fact that makes this option particularly nuclear for Tehran is that China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, uses the strait for shipping its purchases. This hasn't stopped Iran from meddling with shipping through GPS navigation interference. Two tankers collided and caught fire on the narrow stretch of water after allegedly being impacted by the disruption. US officials have claimed the GPS meddling originated from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, located just north of the strait. Some analysts believe Iran is unlikely to carry out such threats, fearing it would provoke Arab states into the conflict and complete Tehran's global isolation. Oil fields If the Iranian regime believed it faced an existential crisis or the irreversible destruction of its nuclear programme, it could play what analysts describe as its 'last big card' by also attacking energy infrastructure in the Gulf. The world got a glimpse of what could be to come in 2019 when drone and missile strikes hit the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility – but both the US and Saudi governments accused Iran of orchestrating the attacks. The attacks temporarily knocked out half of Saudi Arabia's oil production, triggering a sharp spike in global energy prices. Abqaiq, which processes seven million barrels of crude a day – more than two-thirds of Saudi Arabia's production capacity – would almost certainly be a prime target if Iran followed through on its threats. Other potential targets include oil and LNG terminals in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as oil tankers moving through the region's waters. In May 2019, limpet mines damaged three tankers and a bunkering ship off the coast of Fujairah in the UAE. No one claimed responsibility, but Western officials suspected Iranian frogmen were behind the attacks. Cyber Over the years, Iran and its regional proxies have claimed responsibility for numerous cyberattacks against Israel. They include destroying data, phishing campaigns and information operations. Given the threat poses a danger to both civilian and military worlds, the US government has been appealing for information on Iranian hackers responsible for targeting critical infrastructure. A $US10 million reward was posted for details on a group, known as CyberAv3ngers, who US officials have linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Experts, however, say Iran may struggle to properly deploy cyberattacks at a time when its regime is under threat. 'The regime is under existential threat. Iranian cyber is a toy,' Alperovitch said, adding that it was unlikely Tehran would lean on this as a serious offensive tool against the Americans.
Sydney Morning Herald
2 hours ago
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
How could Iran hit back after US strike?
The US military has a presence at no fewer than 20 bases in the Middle East and the surrounding regions. The majority of these would be within the 2,000km range of Iran's Sejil-2 ballistic missile. Its bases in Iraq and Syria would likely be first on the hit list, with Tehran then turning its attention to outposts in Arab countries. Any attempt to strike US military facilities in the Middle East is likely to be less effective than the ballistic missile attack on two US bases in Iraq in January 2020 to avenge the assassination of Qassim Solemaini, ordered by Donald Trump at the end of his first term. Although the attacks on the two American bases caused no fatalities, partly because Iran had issued a warning in advance, 110 servicemen suffered concussions and other brain injuries because of the force of the impact. So great was the cause of the damage that it may have deterred Mr Trump from retaliating. Washington also has two hulking aircraft carriers, with a third en route, deployed to the Middle East, which would be considered prime targets for Iranian missiles. Targets Israel has proven just how hard ballistic missiles, which are fired up high into the Earth's atmosphere before travelling to the ground at supersonic speeds, can be to intercept, even with what is considered to be one of the most sophisticated air defence systems in the world. The US military possesses at least two tried and tested surface-to-air systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles – Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defence, known as THAAD. And they've slowly been redeploying these systems from Asia to the Middle East for months amid mounting tensions between its ally Israel and Iran, and its Islamist proxies. Its bases in Iraq – Erbil and Ain al‑Asad air bases – have Patriot batteries positioned at them, which have been previously used to fend off militant attacks. American commanders also ordered for Patriots to be removed from South Korea and placed at Isa Air Base, Bahrain, and Al Udeid Air Base in recent months. Capacity Of course, mass barrages of ballistic missiles can confuse and overwhelm these systems, as witnessed in both Israel and Ukraine. US servicemen and women will, however, be quietly confident that the Israel Defence Force has significantly reduced Iran's capacity to launch hundreds of missiles at once. Iranian salvos have drastically shrunk in size in recent days. What started as 100-projectile blitzes aimed at Israel has been reduced to just dozens of missiles being fired off at any one time. Iran's production capacity has been significantly eroded, with Israel striking various elements of the supply chain in recent days. Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert, said: 'Iran is heavily constricted in the missile domain. 'The likelihood that Iran can cause a large amount of damage is very, very slim. 'It could also be counterproductive because if you strike American infrastructure, there will be an even greater cost because you risk the Americans getting involved and really getting involved. So I think that's also a huge political consideration.' Proxies Iran's network of regional proxies was always considered its first line of defence. Hezbollah and Hamas were responsible for keeping Israel's military occupied and unable to strike at the Islamic Republic. The Yemen-based Houthi rebels also distracted the West by targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Militant armed by Iran have been responsible for deadly attacks on the US base in Iraq, using one-way attack drones. It's most likely that the Houthi rebels will once again resume targeting American shipping containers travelling through the Red Sea. The militants had briefly paused attacks on American ships after Donald Trump ramped up strikes on the group. In Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah would likely carry out its threat to 'act directly against its [US] interests and bases across the region', if the US president joins the war against Iran. But Israel's decimation of these proxy groups - chiefly Hamas and Hezbollah - in the past year is one saving grace that will comfort the Americans. 'The fact that virtually the only missiles and drones that are launched against Israel right now are coming from Iran is striking,' Dmitri Alperovitch, chair of the Silverado Policy Accelerator think tank in Washington, said. Strait of Hormuz Tucked between the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf's western flank lies one of Tehran's most powerful weapons against the West. Nothing hurts a government more than the price of oil, and this narrow stretch of water between Oman and Iran is vital in the global supply. The Islamic Republic has the means to effectively shut down access to the strait, crippling shipping through the region, as there are no alternative routes. The threat of its closure is perhaps why the USS Nimitz, one of America's largest aircraft carriers, is being moved into the region. Iran could quite easily close the strait by mining it, repositioning mobile ballistic missile launchers, and using maritime drones. It employed similar tactics during the so-called Tanker Wars of the 1980s – although it never fully succeeded, largely due to Royal Navy and later US Navy efforts to escort commercial vessels through the Gulf. This, US officials fear, would keep American naval warships in the Persian Gulf. 'Mine clearance is one of the US Navy's few weaknesses,' Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy officer, wrote in the Telegraph this week. For Tehran, closing the strait is one of the most likely ways of bringing the US into the conflict. Mr Trump was happy to expend billions of dollars in strikes against Houthi rebels, the Iranian-backed militia, when they attempted to snarl up Western shipping through the Red Sea. The US president is acutely aware of global oil prices, and with a fifth of global petroleum shipped through Hormuz. Any blockages would likely lead to him sanctioning some strikes to restore shipping. The other fact that makes this option particularly nuclear for Tehran is that China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, uses the strait for shipping its purchases. This hasn't stopped Iran from meddling with shipping through GPS navigation interference. Two tankers collided and caught fire on the narrow stretch of water after allegedly being impacted by the disruption. US officials have claimed the GPS meddling originated from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, located just north of the strait. Some analysts believe Iran is unlikely to carry out such threats, fearing it would provoke Arab states into the conflict and complete Tehran's global isolation. Oil fields If the Iranian regime believed it faced an existential crisis or the irreversible destruction of its nuclear programme, it could play what analysts describe as its 'last big card' by also attacking energy infrastructure in the Gulf. The world got a glimpse of what could be to come in 2019 when drone and missile strikes hit the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility – but both the US and Saudi governments accused Iran of orchestrating the attacks. The attacks temporarily knocked out half of Saudi Arabia's oil production, triggering a sharp spike in global energy prices. Abqaiq, which processes seven million barrels of crude a day – more than two-thirds of Saudi Arabia's production capacity – would almost certainly be a prime target if Iran followed through on its threats. Other potential targets include oil and LNG terminals in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as oil tankers moving through the region's waters. In May 2019, limpet mines damaged three tankers and a bunkering ship off the coast of Fujairah in the UAE. No one claimed responsibility, but Western officials suspected Iranian frogmen were behind the attacks. Cyber Over the years, Iran and its regional proxies have claimed responsibility for numerous cyberattacks against Israel. They include destroying data, phishing campaigns and information operations. Given the threat poses a danger to both civilian and military worlds, the US government has been appealing for information on Iranian hackers responsible for targeting critical infrastructure. A $US10 million reward was posted for details on a group, known as CyberAv3ngers, who US officials have linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Experts, however, say Iran may struggle to properly deploy cyberattacks at a time when its regime is under threat. 'The regime is under existential threat. Iranian cyber is a toy,' Alperovitch said, adding that it was unlikely Tehran would lean on this as a serious offensive tool against the Americans.
Mint
3 days ago
- Politics
- Mint
Israel-Iran News LIVE: Ali Khamenei refuses to surrender, warns of ‘irreparable damage', Trump responds
Israel Iran News LIVE: Amid intensifying tensions between Isarel and Iran for the 6th straight day, Israel Defence Force claimed that it struck over 20 military targets of its arch rival on Wednesday. As per IDF's post on X, the airstrikes targeted Tehran's uranium enrichment and centrifuge sites, missile and air defence production facilities and nuclear weapons R&D centres on Wednesday. This was followed by barrage of missile fire from Iran as alerts were sounded across various regions of Benjamin Netanyahu's state. This comes a day after US President Donald Trump demanded that Iran should surrender without conditions and warned Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that US has knowledge of his whereabouts. On Wednesday, Iran's supreme leader made his second public appearance since the Israeli strikes began and rejected US' calls for surrender. He issued a warning stating that any military involvement by the Americans would cause 'irreparable damage to them." Meanwhile, European diplomats are preparing to hold talks with Iran on Friday. On Tuesday, Israel claimed responsibility for the killing of the most senior military commander of Iran — General Ali Shadmani. He was appointed to the top leadership position a week ago after the death of his predecessor, General Gholam Ali Rashid in Israel's surprise attack. Follow updates here: 19 Jun 2025, 07:36 AM IST Donald Trump reacted after Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei refused to surrender. The US president on Wednesday said, 'I have a plan for everything... anything could happen.' Expressing frustration over Iran's decision, he remarked, 'They should have made the deal. I had a great deal for them.' 19 Jun 2025, 07:32 AM IST According to Washington-based human rights organisation, Human Rights Activists, at least 639 people have been killed and 1,329 injured in the strikes in Israeli strikes on Iran.
Sky News AU
4 days ago
- Politics
- Sky News AU
‘The world awaits' Trump's next move after call for Iranians to evacuate Tehran
Sky News host Chris Kenny discusses the questions surrounding United States President Donald Trump's 'next move' amid his warnings for Iranians to evacuate Tehran. 'In the Middle East the conflict between Israel and Iran continues as the world awaits US President Donald Trump's next move,' Mr Kenny said. 'Israel has targeted air attacks on Iranian installations near Tehran and in other parts of the country as President Trump has claimed the Israel Defence Force controls the skies above Iran.'
The Print
6 days ago
- Politics
- The Print
PM Modi talks to Netanyahu, emphasises need for early restoration of peace in West Asia
India had earlier in the day expressed its deep concern at the recent developments between Iran and Israel'We are closely monitoring the evolving situation, including reports related to attacks on nuclear sites,' the Ministry of External Affairs said in a urged both sides to avoid any escalatory steps and expressed its willingness to offer all possible support. PM Modi shared India's concerns and emphasized the need for early restoration of peace and stability in the region.'Received a phone call from PM @netanyahu of Israel. He briefed me on the evolving situation. I shared India's concerns and emphasized the need for early restoration of peace and stability in the region,' PM Modi said in a post on X. New Delhi: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday and briefed him on the evolving situation in the wake of Operation Rising Lion launched by Tel Aviv against Iran. 'Existing channels of dialogue and diplomacy should be utilised to work towards a de-escalation of the situation and resolving underlying issues. India enjoys close and friendly relations with both the countries and stands ready to extend all possible support,' the statement said. 'Our Missions in both countries are in contact with the Indian community. All Indian nationals in the region are advised to exercise caution, stay safe and follow local security advisories,' it added. Earlier in the day, the Israel Defence Force (IDF) said Israel has launched a 'precise, preemptive strike' in Iran. The spokesperson BG Effie Defrin said the strikes aimed at damaging Iran's nuclear program and in response to the Iranian regime's ongoing aggression against Israel. 'For years, the Iranian regime has called for the destruction of the State of Israel, planning and advancing concrete military plans to do so. Over the past few months, intelligence has shown that Iran is closer than ever to obtaining a nuclear weapon. This morning, the IDF began pre-emptive and precise strikes targeting the Iranian nuclear program in order to prevent the Iranian regime's ability to build a nuclear bomb in the immediate timeframe,' he said the airstrikes were aimed at protecting Israel's right to exist and for their future. 'We have no choice. We are operating against an imminent and existential threat. We cannot allow the Iranian regime to obtain a nuclear weapon that would be a danger to Israel and the entire world. This operation is for our right to exist here, for our future and for our children's future. The State of Israel has the right and the obligation to operate in order to protect its people and will continue to do so,' he had announced the launch of a large-scale military campaign, Operation Rising Lion, aimed at dismantling what he described as an existential threat posed by Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. Netanyahu said Israel had struck multiple high-value Iranian targets in a decisive first strike. 'Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival,' he said, adding that the mission would continue 'for as many days as it takes to remove this threat. 'The Israeli leader accused Iran of pursuing a nuclear weapons programme in defiance of global warnings, pointing to enriched uranium stockpiles capable of producing multiple nuclear bombs. 'In recent years, Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs. Nine,' he noted, warning that Tehran had taken 'steps to weaponise this enriched uranium' and could develop a nuclear weapon within months. This report is auto-generated from ANI news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content. Also Read: Iran knows a real war against Israel would be costly. It's smarter to carry on anti-US tirade
