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Business Standard
12-06-2025
- Climate
- Business Standard
IMD says monsoon might reach many parts of North-West India by June 25
After stalling since May 26, the southwest monsoon is expected to make a strong revival, covering most parts of Central and East India by June 18 and subsequently advancing over many parts of Northwest India during the following week, ending June 25. Northwest India includes the capital Delhi and its adjoining regions, which have been reeling from a severe heatwave in recent days. The heatwave is expected to abate over most parts of North India in the next two days, with temperatures likely to drop by 2–3 degrees Celsius (°C), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be above normal across most parts of the country, except for the South Peninsular region, where below-normal rainfall is expected during the week ending June 19, the Met department added. The pause in the southwest monsoon after its early onset has pushed the rainfall deficit to nearly 34 per cent, compared to around 25 per cent as of June 9. The IMD said neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions currently prevail over the Equatorial Pacific region. The latest climate model forecasts suggest that these neutral conditions are likely to persist throughout the monsoon season. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are also being observed over the Indian Ocean. However, the latest forecast indicates that weak negative IOD conditions are likely to develop during the season. The Met department added that the Madden-Julian Oscillation, another weather phenomenon that influences the southwest monsoon, is likely to remain weak in the coming weeks. 'No significant change in maximum temperatures is likely over Northwest and Central India during the next two to three days, followed by a gradual fall of 2–4°C. In East India, no major change is expected in maximum temperatures over the next 24 hours, followed by a gradual drop of 2–3°C over the subsequent four days,' the Met said. For the week starting June 19, the IMD said maximum temperatures are likely to decrease over Northwest India compared to the previous week. 'These are likely to be below normal across most parts of the country, except for areas in Northwest India — specifically the Western Himalayan region and Rajasthan — where temperatures are expected to remain near normal,' the Met department said. For the June to September period, the IMD has revised its monsoon forecast for 2025 upwards to 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), compared to 105 per cent predicted in April. It also forecast that June rainfall would be above normal, at over 108 per cent of LPA. The seasonal forecast carries a margin of error of plus/minus 4 per cent. The LPA of seasonal rainfall over the country for the period 1971–2020 is 87 centimetres. The Met department also said that the monsoon is expected to be normal to above normal in almost all homogeneous regions of the country, except the Northeast and parts of Bihar. Only Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya are likely to receive below-normal rainfall this year, the IMD's regional forecast said.
News18
12-06-2025
- Climate
- News18
Monsoon Arrived 8 Days Early In Kerala, Why Has It Progressed So Slow Since Then?
Last Updated: By early June, the monsoon's pace slackened. Rainfall eased in most southern and northeastern parts of the country. Even flood-affected areas in the Northeast began to dry up. The southwest monsoon, a lifeline for agriculture and water needs, arrived with a bang but has since entered a puzzling pause. When it reached Kerala on May 24, eight days ahead of schedule, it sparked widespread celebration across the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) called it the earliest onset since 2009. Hopes soared as rain lashed southern parts of the country. But now, deep into the second week of June, the monsoon's momentum has mysteriously stalled, leaving much of the country grappling with heat and uncertainty. The monsoon's early entry wasn't just confined to Kerala. It simultaneously swept into Lakshadweep, Mahe, southern Karnataka, parts of Tamil Nadu, and Mizoram, an unusually widespread onset that delighted meteorologists and farmers alike. The last week of May saw intense rainfall in Kerala, with red alerts issued in multiple districts due to flooding and landslides. But by early June, the monsoon's pace slackened. Rainfall eased in most southern and northeastern parts of the country. Even flood-affected areas in the Northeast began to dry up. According to private forecaster Skymet, the monsoon's advancement has hit a temporary wall, particularly in northeastern states. Meteorologists attribute the sluggish progress to a mix of global atmospheric and oceanic shifts. The early burst was helped by favourable conditions like the active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a moving pulse of cloud and rainfall over the tropics, and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The absence of El Nino, a phenomenon that typically suppresses monsoon rains, also worked in the country's favour. But June brought a shift. The MJO lost steam, weakening the systems that propel the monsoon northward. In addition, the seasonal low-pressure area that usually drives the monsoon's inland advance remains south of its expected position, restricting rain to southern coastal regions. Despite the slowdown, the IMD has issued a new round of forecasts that may bring hope. Between June 11 and 17, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected to return to Kerala and Lakshadweep. Wind speeds may reach 60 km/h, and isolated areas could see extreme rain from June 14 to 17. However, the monsoon remains sluggish over Maharashtra, Goa, and much of the Northeast. The early-season flooding in Kerala is giving way to heat and humidity, a pattern mirrored in several parts of the country. Will Monsoon Regain Momentum? The IMD remains optimistic about the broader monsoon season. It has projected overall rainfall at 105% of the long-period average, an encouraging sign for agriculture and the economy. Yet, weather experts caution that early onset does not guarantee a successful or well-distributed monsoon. In 2009, the monsoon had also arrived early, on May 23, but June that year saw a severe 48% rainfall deficit, and August followed with a 27% shortfall. The memory of that anomaly is prompting meteorologists to urge caution amid early excitement. First Published: June 12, 2025, 14:25 IST
The Hindu
29-05-2025
- Climate
- The Hindu
Unusually high-speed winds over Kerala, a throwback to 2018
The unusual pattern of high-speed wind in Kerala since the onset of the monsoon bears close resemblance to the wind that lashed the State in 2018, just ahead of the August floods that year. The speed of the monsoon low-level jet measured in the wind profiler radar of the Cusat's Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR) was 20 m/s (approximately 72 kmph) at around 2 km height from the surface on Thursday. In 2018, the core speed of the monsoon low-level jet was about 20 m/s on August 14, the day ahead of the flood. This is unusual considering the climatological normal of the low-level jet speed over Kerala, which used to hover around 10-15 m/s, said Ajil Kottayil, scientist, Advanced Centre for Automatic Radar Research. The higher speed of westerly winds will normally pump a large quantity of moisture from the Arabian Sea to the land. Further, the orographic lifting of clouds, including their depth and extent, would be higher than normal during such situations, leading to intense spells of rain over the land, said Mr. Kottayil. In various districts The automatic weather stations under the India Meteorological Department also recorded high gusty winds across the State. Palakkad recorded 68.5 kmph strong wind followed by Wayanad 66.6 kmph, Idukki 61.1 kmph, Thiruvananthapuram 55.5 kmph, Kannur 53.7 kmph, Pathanamthitta 53.7 kmph, Ernakulam 53.7 kmph, and Kasaragod 51.8 kmph during the 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Thursday. Neetha K. Gopal, IMD Director, Thiruvananthapuram, told The Hindu that this unusually high speed of wind has been observed since the onset of the monsoon on May 24. The speed and gustiness of the wind are higher than those normally observed during monsoon. The speed and depth of the wind influence the rain. It is not known what's driving the enhanced speed of the low-level jet, said Ms. Gopal. Global factors Though global factors such as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are neutral, conditions akin to La Niña, a climate pattern characterised by unusually cold surface water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, are prevailing, although temperature criteria technically do not allow it to be termed La Niña. Further, the atmospheric conditions are favourable for a wet spell over Kerala, she added. Local whirlwinds Along with this, the frequency and intensity of short-lived micro-scale whirlwinds reported in the State are also unusually high this time, causing widespread damage to properties. Whirlwinds normally seem to be local, with their causes also either regional or local. One of the main reasons for the development of localised whirlwinds is the climatic changes within the region, especially the decrease in monsoon rainfall and rise in temperature. The increased temperature in the absence of rain at one place may produce gustiness while raining, according to experts.
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Business Standard
27-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
IMD raises monsoon rain outlook to 106% of the long-period average
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday raised its monsoon forecast for 2025, projecting rainfall at 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), up from 105 per cent predicted in April. It also expects June rainfall to be 'above normal', at over 108 per cent of the LPA. Cumulative monsoon rainfall between 105 per cent and 110 per cent of the LPA during the June-September period is considered 'above normal'. The seasonal LPA for the country, calculated over the period from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 centimetres. The forecast for seasonal June-September rainfall carries a margin of error of +/- 4 per cent. The agency said rainfall across nearly all of India's homogenous regions — except the Northeast and parts of Bihar — was likely to be normal to above normal this year. Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya could see below-normal rains, according to IMD's regional outlook. 'Above-normal' June rainfall is expected to keep maximum temperatures across most of India at or below seasonal averages, with no heat waves anticipated. The month typically receives 165.4 millimetres of rainfall. Monsoon rainfall in the 'core zone' — which comprises key rain-fed agricultural regions — is also forecast to be above normal, with a 56 per cent probability of strong precipitation. Good monsoon rain across key rainfed regions in central and western India could significantly boost pulses and oilseed output, potentially reducing the country's dependence on high-cost imports. Overall, a strong and well-distributed southwest monsoon is expected to bolster kharif crop production and leave behind significant residual soil moisture for a healthy rabi harvest. Agriculture was projected to account for about 16.35 per cent of India's gross domestic product (GDP) in FY25, according to the government's second advance estimate. A robust harvest could help the government curb food inflation and provide more room for the Reserve Bank of India to cut benchmark interest rates in FY26. It may also encourage the government to be more liberal on farm exports. The central bank has forecast 6.5 per cent GDP growth and 4 per cent retail inflation for FY26. Food inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, dropped to 1.78 per cent in April, from 2.69 per cent in March. Oils & fats and fruit were the only categories with double-digit inflation in April. 'Currently, neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific regions, while the latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, as well as other model forecasts, indicates that the neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is another factor that could influence Indian monsoon, is also expected to be weakly negative,' said IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra. He expressed confidence in the agency's 'above normal' forecast, citing improved accuracy in recent years. He said that between 2021 and 2024, IMD's average absolute error of the operational forecast was 2.28 per cent of the LPA for the second-stage forecast, and 3.15 per cent of the LPA for the first-stage forecast. 'This was well within the error range of +/- 4 per cent,' Mohapatra said. While the average absolute error of the forecast for the previous four years (2017 to 2020) of both first and second-stage forecasts was 7.5 per cent of the LPA. The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on May 24 this year, marking its earliest arrival over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it reached the southern state on May 23. The primary rain-bearing system set in over Mumbai 16 days before the usual date, making it the earliest since 1950. The southwest monsoon usually makes its onset over Kerala by June 1, reaches Mumbai by June 11, and covers the entire country by July 8. It starts retreating from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws completely by October 15. Meteorologists caution that the date of monsoon onset has no direct correlation with overall seasonal rainfall. Early or late arrival in Kerala or Mumbai doesn't necessarily determine the rain's progress or distribution elsewhere in the country, which is determined by large-scale variabilities and global, regional and local features. India saw 934.8 millimetres of rainfall in 2024 — 108 per cent of the average. In 2023, it had recorded 820 millimetres, 94.4 per cent of the average. It had seen 925 millimetres of rainfall in 2022; 870 millimetres in 2021; and 958 millimetres in 2020, according to the IMD data. (With agency inputs)
Hans India
27-05-2025
- Climate
- Hans India
India set for above-normal monsoon; boost to agriculture likely
New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its updated forecast for the 2025 Southwest Monsoon, bringing encouraging news for the country. According to the report issued on Tuesday, rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season from June to September is likely to be above normal across most parts of India. The all-India rainfall is expected to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4 per cent. This forecast raises hopes for a productive agricultural season and improved water availability, although it also calls for preparedness against weather-related risks. Significantly, the monsoon forecast is quite promising for Central and South Peninsular India, regions crucial for agricultural productivity, where above-normal rainfall is highly likely. Northwest India is expected to see normal rainfall. At the same time, Northeast India may see below-normal rainfall, raising some concern for the region's ecosystems and agriculture. The Monsoon Core Zone, which covers most of India's rainfed farming areas, is also expected to receive above-normal rainfall, providing a strong foundation for a successful Kharif crop season. June 2025, the first month of the monsoon, is expected to witness above-normal rainfall for the country as a whole. Most parts of India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, except for some areas in southern peninsular India, and parts of Northwest and Northeast India, where below-normal rainfall is anticipated. These early rains are vital for sowing operations and groundwater replenishment. Temperature predictions for June offer mixed signals. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal in most parts of the country, but many parts of Northwest and Northeast India may experience above-normal maximum temperatures. Minimum temperatures are anticipated to be above normal across most regions, except parts of Central India and the adjoining south Peninsula, which may record normal to below-normal minimums. Encouragingly, the number of heatwave days is likely to be below normal in most of Northwest, Central, and East India, reducing the risk of extreme heat events in early summer. Climatic factors contributing to this forecast include neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the Pacific Ocean and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions. However, models suggest a weak negative IOD may develop during the monsoon season. These conditions, while not extreme, will be monitored closely, as they can subtly influence monsoon behaviour. A detailed breakdown of rainfall predictions by meteorological subdivisions shows that 34 out of 36 subdivisions are expected to receive above-normal rainfall. This includes major agricultural regions such as Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. Only Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya are likely to experience below-normal rainfall, while a few northeastern and hilly regions may see near-normal rainfall. This optimistic monsoon forecast brings significant potential benefits. It is expected to boost crop output, ease pressure on irrigation systems, and support rural livelihoods. However, authorities and communities are urged to remain alert to possible challenges such as flooding, waterlogging, and landslides in vulnerable regions. Public health systems may also need to prepare for waterborne diseases and sanitation issues, particularly in densely populated areas. The IMD will continue to provide updated extended range forecasts and short to medium-range forecasts through its official website. These tools are essential for farmers, policymakers, and disaster management authorities to plan and respond effectively throughout the monsoon season. With careful planning and timely response, the 2025 monsoon could become a strong driver of agricultural growth and water security, even as the country remains watchful of the risks that come with it.
