Latest news with #Gadigal
ABC News
15 hours ago
- Entertainment
- ABC News
Could a new copyright lawsuit from Disney change the way we use AI?
Disney and Universal are suing AI image generator Midjourney, in what could be a landmark case for copyright and generative AI. Could it change how creative industries deal with machine-made 'art'? Also, the Australian government is forcing Apple to loosen its App Store restrictions, allowing iPhone users to download apps from outside the walled garden. What might that mean for developers and everyday users? Plus, a researcher exposes a major privacy flaw, revealing every phone number linked to a Google account using just one Gmail address. And we unpack 'vibe-coding' -- the strange new world where AI writes code based on vibes, not logic. GUESTS: Alex Kidman, freelance tech journalist and editor of freelance tech journalist and editor of Georgia Dixon, Managing Editor of WhistleOut Singapore This episode of Download This Show was made on Gadigal land. Technical production by Craig Tilmouth and Carey Dell.
ABC News
a day ago
- Business
- ABC News
Alan Kohler on inflation and the Israel-Iran conflict
Sam Hawley: A week since Israel began the conflict with Iran, there's been no great shock to the global economy. But a further escalation in the conflict could see crude oil and petrol prices surge, leading to nations, including Australia, having to deal with rising inflation once again. Today, the ABC's finance expert, Alan Kohler, on what that would mean for us and why, for now at least, we shouldn't be too worried. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Alan, when wars break out, we know it can have a huge impact on the global economy and on the Australian economy, on us. We saw that, of course, most recently when Russia invaded Ukraine, didn't we? Alan Kohler: We did. There tends to be two sorts of impact. One is short-term, one is longer-term. So the short-term impact tends to be negative, in the sense that the oil price goes up. So when Russia invaded Ukraine, the oil price jumped 30%. News report: With war in Europe continuing and some oil producers unwilling to increase production levels amid global demand, there's no relief in sight for customers. News report: Petrol prices have gone up and up and up. At the end of February, they hit an eight-year high of around $1.82 a litre. In the last two weeks, bowsers have hovered around $2.20. Alan Kohler: But within eight weeks, the oil price was back at its pre-invasion level, and that's because the impact longer-term is to weaken the global economy, to reduce demand. And so there tends to be kind of this two-part for all of these kind of things. Sam Hawley: Alright, well, let's unpack then what we could see now this Israel and Iran conflict is underway. And, of course, there's a prospect that it could escalate. So let's start with the price of oil. What are we seeing so far? Alan Kohler: So, so far, we saw when Israel attacked Iran on Friday, the oil price jumped 10 or 11% immediately. News report: Escalating attacks between Israel and Iran prompt new fears of a global energy crisis and recession. News report: Crude oil prices spiked by more than 10% as the escalation of the Middle East tension threatened supply. Benchmark Brent crude prices climbed above 76 US dollars a barrel to the highest level since February this year. Alan Kohler: And then it started to fall and went a lot of the way back to where it had been. That was on Monday and Tuesday. And then, since then, as Donald Trump has increased his bellicose rhetoric and started talking about possibly attacking Iran himself, that is to say America, getting involved, the oil prices started to rise, not sharply, but steadily. And it's close to being back to where it was on Friday. So it got to 76 dollars a barrel on Friday and now it's back to 73, 74 dollars a barrel. But again, it's not what you'd say some sort of big dramatic impact so far. And I think part of the reason for that is that the expectation is that global oil supplies will exceed demand this year. The International Energy Agency put out a report on Tuesday in which it forecast demand and supply this year for oil and it's forecasting an excess of supply over demand. And the other factor is that Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of oil a day and the expectation would be that even if that was completely knocked out, the other suppliers, in particular the UAE, Saudi Arabia and others, could easily cover that loss and probably would. So there's no kind of panic going on, even at the prospect that Iran is completely removed as a supplier of oil. Sam Hawley: Yeah, alright. But just a reminder, of course, the price of oil matters to us because it matters to the cost of petrol. Alan Kohler: Oh, well, look, I think the expectation would be that what happened on Friday would put about 12 cents per litre on the bowser price of petrol. At the moment, we're looking at an extra 8 or 9 cents per litre. Sam Hawley: Well, Alan, Jim Chalmers, the Treasurer, he says he's being briefed daily about the consequences of this conflict on the economy. Jim Chalmers, Treasurer: Big risk here is obviously oil prices. We saw a big spike on Friday in the price of oil. That has implications for Australians at the petrol bowser. And there's a lot of concern about what it might mean, not just for inflation, as important as that is, but also global growth. Sam Hawley: A week into this new conflict between Israel and Iran, there hasn't been a huge shock, of course, for our economy yet or a huge shock for oil prices. But there is so much uncertainty, isn't there, Alan? And there is a number of factors that go into that. Let's start by discussing the Straits of Hormuz. What happens there is really important, isn't it? Just explain that. Alan Kohler: Well, it's the narrowest part of the Persian Gulf between Iran and Oman. And it's theoretically possible for Iran to block it by bombing ships that go through it. And I think it's fair to say that ships are starting to avoid it already. They're certainly avoiding the Red Sea, but because of Yemen, what the Yemenis are doing. But yes, look, there's 25% of the world's seaborne oil goes through the Straits of Hormuz. So, yeah, that'll be a big deal if they block that, if they're able to. I mean, there's a bit of a question as to whether they can actually do it. And I think it's fair to say that it's not entirely in their hands. I mean, they could try, but then both America and Israel would probably see to it that they can't. Sam Hawley: Yeah. Alright. Well, Iran is positioned on the northern side of the Straits. There is a slight concern, isn't there, that that could actually happen. That would have a huge impact, wouldn't it, if that did happen? Alan Kohler: Oh, yeah, sure. Sam Hawley: And there's a lot of unknowns at the moment, but that would have a huge impact on the price of oil. Alan Kohler: Potentially would, yeah. If the Straits of Hormuz were successfully blocked by Iran, that would have a big impact on the oil market. The oil price would spike, and the global economy would suffer as a result. And so would ours. Sam Hawley: Well, another factor, Alan, that we should watch out for is if Israel targets Iran's Kharg Island. Tell me about that. Alan Kohler: It's where Iran produces its oil. I think about 90% of its oil comes from Kharg Island, and, you know, it's vulnerable. It's kind of an island off Iran in the Persian Gulf, and it could be destroyed, I think. It's fair to say. Sam Hawley: Yeah, and a lot of that oil goes to China, I think. Alan Kohler: That's right. In fact, if not all of it, certainly most of it goes to China because of the sanctions that were imposed by Western countries on Iran. So, look, I think the expectation is that Israel would look to destroy Kharg Island if it was trying to bring about a regime change in Iran, because the feeling is that if Iran went broke, then the regime would tend to possibly be overthrown because there would be no money for anybody. And so that's certainly a possibility that they'll do that. They seem to be more interested in bombing, you know, the uranium enrichment sites than that at this stage. Sam Hawley: Mm. Alright, well, the impact on our economy does all sort of hinge on the cost of oil. As you say, it's pretty stable at the moment. It's been going up and down a bit. But just explain to me so we understand this. When we pay more for oil and then petrol, that can really hurt us in so many ways, can't it? When the cost of petrol goes up, that means the cost of lots of other things goes up too. Alan Kohler: Well, of course, that's right. We haven't got that many electric cars and electric trucks yet. We're still filling the cars up with petrol mostly and it obviously acts like a tax increase and, you know, obviously increases the price of deliveries and everything. So fuel tends to go through the entire economy when the price goes up. And so it acts like interest rates in a way. A rise in interest rates slows the economy because it affects so many people. The majority of people have a mortgage and that therefore affects them and also the businesses. So it's a fuel increase, price increase, acts a bit like an interest rate increase. Sam Hawley: Yeah, and that all leads to rising inflation, obviously, which the Reserve Bank has just brought under control. Alan Kohler: That's right. And so that's the fear is that if inflation rises as a result of rising fuel costs, then the interest rate cuts that are currently expected will not arrive. And so it's a sort of a double whammy, really. You get the higher petrol price and then you get less of a rate cut or no rate cut maybe. Sam Hawley: Can we look ahead any further at this point or is it just completely unknown what the Reserve Bank would have to do at this point? Looking right now, are we still going to get those two or three extra rate cuts? Alan Kohler: Well, look, in terms of the futures market, last Thursday, the futures market expectation for a rate cut in July was 97%, so virtually a certain 100%. And on Monday, it came down to 80%. So still very likely the rate cut in July, according to the futures market, but less likely than it was. And I think that's fair enough. I mean, my expectation is that there won't be a cut in July because I think the Reserve Bank has made it pretty clear they're not that keen on back-to-back cuts sort of in a row. And that means that there wouldn't be one in July, but there would be one in August and then not one in September and then one in November. I think it's still reasonable to expect two more rate cuts this year from the Reserve Bank, but obviously, you know, that depends on what happens from here. But as things stand with the petrol price where it is, I think that you can still expect rate cuts. But as I said, a petrol price increase acts like a rate hike in a way, and so that would sort of tend to cut it out. I mean, it's kind of a bit complicated in the sense that, yes, a petrol price increase increases inflation and therefore makes it less likely that the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates, but it also tends to slow the economy, which is what the Reserve Bank is trying to fight against. So the Reserve Bank is cutting interest rates because it wants to boost the economy. But if petrol prices go up and it acts like a rate hike, then in order to counteract that, the Reserve Bank might be inclined to cut interest rates more to try to counteract the impact of the petrol price increase. So it depends on how it actually unfolds and what actually does happen to inflation rather than, you know, the sort of theories about it. Sam Hawley: All right. Well, no need by the sound of it for the Reserve Bank to panic just yet. But if this becomes an extended conflict, if other nations, including, of course, the United States, gets involved, I guess that could change the whole scenario. Alan Kohler: Look, it could. I think the markets are pretty calm at the moment because the expectation is that it'll all be confined to Iran and that if the worst happens and Iran is removed as a producer of oil, then everyone can handle that. It'll be okay. The only problem would be if it really did expand to include other big oil producers, which is not out of the question but very, very unlikely. You know, Iran has threatened in the past and has used its proxies in Yemen to attack Saudi Arabian production facilities. So it's not completely out of the question that Iran would have a go at that. But, you know, I think they're on the back foot at the moment. There's no doubt about it. I mean, they're in trouble, Iran. And I don't think that there's any expectation, really, that they're going to be in any kind of position to attack anyone else. So, you know, I think that it doesn't look that likely that it's going to spread and become a major conflict where Iran attacks someone else. I just don't... That doesn't look like it's at all likely. Sam Hawley: Alan Kohler is ABC TV's finance expert. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead and Sam Dunn. Audio production by Adair Sheppard. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. ABC News Daily will be back again on Monday. Thanks for listening.
Time Out
2 days ago
- Entertainment
- Time Out
Sydney has just welcomed a brand-new culture hub in the heart of the CBD
There was a time when Martin Place was all about shoe shiners and corporate coffee stops. But with venues like The International, Centro 86, Morena and the boundary-pushing City Recital Hall breathing new life into the area, those days are behind us. The CBD heartland (and Sydney Metro superhub) has been quietly glowing up over the past few years, and today, it's officially launching its rebrand. MP District is Martin Place 2.0: a cultural corridor connecting Sydneysiders to some of the best venues in the city, all with the help of a nifty online tool known as a 'cultural concierge'. Intrigued? Us too. First up, let's cover the area itself. MP District stretches from George Street to Macquarie Street, and incorporates some of the Time Out team's favourite CBD venues (we're guessing they might be your favourites too). MP District members include two of the city's very best cultural institutions (Theatre Royal Sydney and the City Recital Hall), Time Out Sydney's cocktail bar of the year Centro 86 and the magnificent new multi-level venue The International. The precinct is also home to some of the city's most historic buildings including the 151-year-old General Post Office (GPO) and the State Library of NSW. To help Sydneysiders make the most of the close proximity of these Sydney icons, MP District has launched a first-of-its-kind 'cultural concierge' tool. The online tool allows you to follow curated trails through this buzzing pocket of the city, or create your own itinerary based on what you hope to see, do, drink and eat. Want to score a deal at happy hour, then catch a show, then get a late-night bite? Or keen to explore some art, eat lunch somewhere new and round out your day with some retail therapy? The cultural concierge tool will map out your evening for you, helping you to milk Sydney's newest precinct for all it's worth. Located on the traditional lands of the Gadigal people, MP District is essentially a new chapter for this section of Sydney's CBD – turning what was once a relatively soulless corporate corner of the city into a connected, vibrant destination in its own right. Janson Hews, MP District President, explained 'MP District is more than a place to pass through, it's a precinct to linger in, connect and return to.' You can learn more about MP District and try the cultural concierge service for yourself via the MP District website. See you in the CBD. .
ABC News
3 days ago
- Politics
- ABC News
Was Iran really about to build a nuclear bomb?
Sam Hawley: Israel has been ramping up pressure on Donald Trump for the US to join its strikes on Iran. But does the Iranian regime have the nuclear capability? The Israeli leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, says it does. Today, nuclear weapons expert Ben Zala from Monash Uni on Iran's nuclear program, and whether Israel really needed to strike now. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Ben, we're watching missiles fly between Israel and Iran, and it really at this point does not look like this will be a short war, does it? Dr Ben Zala: No, unfortunately, I don't think it does. Israel is clearly taking its time in hitting various sites. News report: After weeks of threats, explosions across Iran. Dr Ben Zala: It's rolling this out over a number of days now, even in the initial wave of attacks when it began on Friday. For those of us in the sort of nuclear community who were watching this, there were a number of sites that we were quite surprised that hadn't been hit straight away. They then were hit over the course of the weekend. News report: Smoke rose over the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, the IAEA, saying it had contacted Iranian authorities about radiation levels. Dr Ben Zala: So this is clearly planned to be carried out in waves. This doesn't feel like just a targeted strike on the nuclear program. This really is much wider. Sam Hawley: Yeah, Israel's even hit the state broadcaster in Iran while it was on air. It's targeting deep inside the capital. That's right. As well, isn't it? It's very extensive. Dr Ben Zala: Yeah, it is extensive. And those sort of strikes, as you say, against state TV, against airports, against various military facilities, not just those related or that in principle could be related to the nuclear weapon program, a clandestine program. This really is a very large scale strike. And so this appears to be part of the gambit here that the Israelis are thinking, we know that we can't necessarily wipe out the entirety of the nuclear weapons program if that's what the Iranians were getting close to building. So what we're going to do is actually go one better and see if we overthrow the actual regime. Sam Hawley: And Ben, are we any clearer at this point on what Israel has actually achieved, how much of Iran's nuclear program it's wiped out at this point? Dr Ben Zala: Look, we're not terribly clear on that and we won't be for some time. Of course, the Israelis are making grand claims about having really set back the program by a long way and that they think they've collapsed the underground facility at Natanz, which is an enrichment plant and so forth. What we do know from the satellite images that we can see for ourselves, that certainly the above ground facilities have been very, very extensively damaged. So there was an above ground section at the Natanz site, for example, and you can look at the satellite images before the attack and look at it afterwards and there are just buildings that are no longer there, structures that are blown wide apart. But what we don't know is how extensive has the damage been, how successful have these attacks been on the underground facilities. And these are facilities both at Natanz and also at Fordow, which the Iranians have been digging deep, deep underground and fortifying. They've been putting these under layers and layers and layers of concrete for years. They've been expecting an attack of this kind from Israel at some point. And so they've been preparing the sites to try and withstand as much of an attack as possible. Sam Hawley: And as I understand it, the US is the only nation that has the type of weaponry that can get to some of those bunkers. Dr Ben Zala: That's right. Yeah. What we call bunker busting weapons. So what you would really need is the kind of 20,000, 30,000 pound bombs that only the US has. And so far there doesn't seem to be any indication that the US giving these to Israel to use or allowing them to use it. And the US seems to be completely avoiding being drawn into doing any military strikes themselves. Sam Hawley: Well, Donald Trump says he had nothing to do with the Israeli strikes. He left the G7 summit in Canada early, where world leaders had been discussing the crisis. Donald Trump, US President: Well, I think this, I think Iran basically is at the negotiating table. They want to make a deal. And as soon as I leave here, we're going to be doing something. But I have to leave here. I have this commitment. I have a lot of commitments. I have a commitment to a lot of countries. Sam Hawley: In an interview with ABC America, Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, indicated he does want America to be drawn into this. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli PM: To have nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to your cities. Today, it's Tel Aviv. Tomorrow, it's New York. Look, I understand America first. I don't understand America dead. That's what these people want. They chant death to America. Dr Ben Zala: I mean, the best news for Israel would be joint strikes carried out by the Americans and the Israelis, because that means they would have the full force of the American military behind them. That seems unlikely to me for now. If in Iran's response in its retaliation towards Israel, if that in the end broadens out and targets certain American interests in the region, particularly things like military bases or any other military capabilities that are in the region at the time, that could be very difficult for Trump to avoid. Sam Hawley: Let's look, Ben, more deeply at why Israel has attacked now. Israel's Prime Minister says Iran could have made a nuclear bomb in a very short period of time and it posed an existential threat to Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli PM: If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. It could be a year. It could be within a few months, less than a year. This is a clear and present danger to Israel's very survival. Sam Hawley: Tell me, does the evidence as far as we know, support that view? Dr Ben Zala: Not as far as we know, no. That's the simple answer. The answer to this is there have been estimates around how close Iran is to building a nuclear weapons program that have been around for years. And according to the Israelis, they've been months away from building the bomb for years now. So the Israeli assessments and estimates are a little hard to take on face value. The best assessments from the expert community, those who follow these issues, but as it were, don't have a dog in the fight, aren't trying to influence policy one way or the other, is somewhere around two to three years is probably a more accurate estimate. They certainly weren't anywhere near having a workable nuclear weapons program in the timeline that Netanyahu was talking about when he said a year or even months. And they certainly didn't have assembled usable weapons ready to go or even close to doing so. Whether, even if they did, that would represent an existential threat to Israel, that really depends on how you feel about the whole issue of nuclear deterrence. I mean, the strange thing in this is that the Israelis are demonstrating to us that they actually don't believe in nuclear deterrence because they have their own nuclear weapons program. They've had it since the late 1960s. It's sort of the world's worst kept secret. Israel neither confirms nor denies the existence of its nuclear weapons program. But thanks to leaks from Israeli scientists and assessments from intelligence agencies from all around the world, we all know that they do. And therefore, if Iran was to be successful in building a nuclear weapons program, if you think nuclear deterrence works, which is presumably why you have a nuclear arsenal in the first place, well, there's no reason to think that the Iranians wouldn't be deterred from using them by an Israeli nuclear retaliation, just like anyone else would. So the idea that Iran getting nuclear weapons suddenly poses an existential threat to Israel is a strange one when you factor into account that Israel itself already has nuclear weapons and has had them for over half a century. Sam Hawley: The US, of course, has worked pretty hard, hasn't it, over many years to strike a deal with Iran to restrict its nuclear program, with varying success, of course. That all fell apart, didn't it, during Trump's first term? He actually tore it up, a nuclear deal, and now he's been trying to negotiate a new one, right? And now that's also fallen apart. But why on earth did Israel act when negotiations were still underway? Dr Ben Zala: Well, I think the key to the timing here is that they allowed the Trump administration to engage in what the Israelis clearly knew and what the rest of us clearly knew was a doomed attempt at trying to restore some kind of diplomatic solution here. Donald Trump, US President: I gave Iran 60 days and they said no. And the 61st you saw what happened. Day 61. So I'm in constant touch. And as I've been saying, I think a deal will be signed or something will happen, but a deal will be signed. And I think Iran is foolish not to sign one. Dr Ben Zala: As you say, the Iranians had already done this. They signed a deal in 2015 with the Obama administration, which put very effective limits on Iran's program. It didn't completely prevent it from developing a secret program or being close-ish to, but it put it a long way back. And it was working very well. And the Iranians were, regardless of how we feel about the regime, were actually abiding by the terms of the deal. And when Trump got into power, he was very opposed to it simply on the grounds that it was an Obama deal. That means that these most recent rounds of talks, when Trump in his second term decided that he wanted to restrike a deal, they were really up against it right from the outset, because you would have to convince the Iranians to come back and trust you again, despite the fact that it was that very administration that had pulled out of the last deal. And now the Israelis can say to the Trump administration, look, we gave you a chance, we allowed the talks to go on, you tried your best, but the Iranians are just throwing it back in your face. We face no decision here. We just have to act now. It gives them an air of legitimacy in their relations with Washington. Sam Hawley: Mm, all right. Well, Ben, as we discussed, Israel is likely to need America to completely wipe out Iran's nuclear program, those bunker busters. What do you think happens next? If Israel can't destroy it completely, this program, would Iran increase the speed of developing, say, a nuclear bomb? Dr Ben Zala: That's certainly one of the options. And I sadly, I think it's probably fairly likely. I would be surprised if Iran remained a signatory to the NPT. In fact, we've already seen Iranian lawmakers overnight putting together a bill for the Iranian parliament to suggest that Iran should withdraw from the nonproliferation treaty. Only one state has done that. That was North Korea. They withdrew in 2003. And then three years later, they tested their first nuclear weapon and have been nuclear armed ever since. That's probably the more likely outcome that I would see Iran going down in the short term. Sam Hawley: Mm, all right. Well, Ben, if Israel actually achieves what it says it wants to, what do you think? Would that actually make the Middle East a safer place in the long run? Dr Ben Zala: Not necessarily. It certainly will make Israel's other neighbours around them think twice about its relationship with Israel. I mean, the reality is Israel's Arab neighbours have been getting closer to Israel, closer but not close to Israel in recent years. But I think we would see other states in the region think very, very carefully about how they manage their relations with Israel, because this has demonstrated that if the Israelis deem you as a threat, you are fair game for a full-scale military attack. It will also shift the power balance in the region somewhat. I mean, this is a good news day for the Saudis, for example, who are no friends of the Iranians and really see themselves as regional rivals to Iran. So this is not the kind of thing that will necessarily bring peace and stability to the region instantly. And we will still have a region in which there is one nuclear-armed state in Israel, and the rest of them are not. And that means that the rest of them can be subject to sort of nuclear blackmail and nuclear coercion, because they don't have that deterrence relationship. There's no parity in their military relations. Sam Hawley: Ben Zala is a senior lecturer in international relations at Monash Uni. His work focuses on nuclear weapons. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead and Adair Sheppard. Audio production by Sam Dunn. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. Thanks for listening.
SBS Australia
5 days ago
- Entertainment
- SBS Australia
Eyes On Gilead Live + The Handmaid's Tale S6 Finale Watch Party
SUBSCRIBE to the Eyes on Gilead podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | RSS Join in the conversation: #EyesOnGilead Eyes on Gilead is an SBS Australia production. We acknowledge the Traditional Owners of Country throughout Australia, and Eyes On Gilead Live was recorded on the lands of the Gadigal people of the Eora nation. Host, producer: Fiona Williams Hosts: Haidee Ireland, Natalie Hambly, Sana Qadar Audio editor and mixer: Jeremy Wilmot Theme song: 'You Don't Own Me' from 'Girl Garage 2'
