Latest news with #EnergyAspects
Bloomberg
11 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Hot July Weather Seen Pressuring Europe's Power Supplies
Hotter weather in Europe this summer risks driving up demand while causing output from hydropower and nuclear plants to fall, according to research firm Energy Aspects. Higher-than-usual temperatures across western Europe next month could add about 3 gigawatts of extra demand, it said, while generation from hydro and nuclear power is expected to take a hit of a similar dimension.
New York Times
5 days ago
- Business
- New York Times
Israel Bombards Tehran, Setting Oil Facilities Ablaze
Nearly all of Iran's oil exports come from the Port of Kharg Island Oil Terminal on a small coral land mass in the northern part of the Persian Gulf off the Iranian coast. The conflict between Israel and Iran spread on Saturday to Iran's energy infrastructure, raising fears about energy supplies from the Middle East. Iran's oil ministry blamed Israeli drones for attacking part of the South Pars natural gas field, one of the world's largest, and a refinery, causing fires at both. In a later wave of attacks, Israel struck Tehran's main gas depot and one of the country's largest oil refineries in separate parts of the capital, according to Iranian state news media. It is not clear how far Israel intends to go in attacking Iran's energy facilities, a crucial source of export cash for the country as well as domestic energy that looks particularly vulnerable. This is 'a warning shot that Israel is willing to hit Iranian energy infrastructure if Israeli civilians are targeted,' said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, a research firm. Other Iranian installations are at risk, analysts say. 'There is one clear target that would make it very easy if Israel or the United States wanted to impact Iran's oil exports,' Homayoun Falakshahi, senior analyst for crude oil at Kpler, a research firm, said during a webinar on Friday. 'And this is Kharg Island.' Nearly all of Iran's oil exports leave from tankers at berths around Kharg Island, a small coral land mass in the northern part of the Persian Gulf off the Iranian coast, potentially making it a target in a protracted war, analysts say. Iran has been developing another terminal in Jask, a coastal city just outside the Strait of Hormuz on the Gulf of Oman, but its capacity appears to be limited, Mr. Falakshahi said. Israel's energy system also looks exposed, analysts say, which could potentially restrain its attacks. Were the fighting to escalate to major energy installations across the region, the consequences could be serious not only for Iran and its neighbors but for their customers, especially in Asia, and world markets. Oil prices have already jumped since the Israeli attack early Friday. Any escalation that might appear to threaten international supplies could send prices soaring. Iran's coastline stretches along the northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passageway through which tankers and other ships must pass on their way from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. Iran has a history of interfering with shipping in the area. Kpler has estimated that 21 percent of the world's liquefied natural gas, most of it from Qatar, flowed through this gauntlet in 2024. A hefty 14 million barrels of crude oil a day also moves through the strait, according to Kpler's estimates. The conflict with Israel comes at a delicate point for Iran's petroleum industry, which is a crucial pillar for its economy and its ability to fund its nuclear program. Strikes on the Iranian facilities could potentially negate years of effort to rebuild production from the low levels at the beginning of this decade when President Trump pulled out of a deal reached by President Barack Obama under which Iran agreed to curbs on its nuclear program in return for an easing of sanctions, including on its oil sales. Oil production in Iran has increased around 75 percent to about 3.4 million barrels a day from depressed 2020 levels, while exports have roughly tripled, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency and Kpler. FGE, an energy consulting firm, estimates that Iranian energy export revenues, including oil products and electricity, have almost quadrupled since 2020 to $78 billion in 2024. Even before the Israeli strikes, Iran faced major handicaps. Although it has some of the world's richest troves of oil and natural gas, it has strained to exploit them largely because of protracted political tensions with the West dating to the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. These frictions have led to sanctions and other restrictions that have kept Western firms from working in Iran for decades. Lack of capital and expertise has limited development of oil and natural gas fields and access to major investment projects like liquefied natural gas facilities that might have benefited the Iranian industry. Qatar, whose huge gas fields in the Persian Gulf border Iran's, has become rich through L.N.G. development with western partners like Shell and Exxon Mobil, which allow the natural gas to be exported to Europe and Asia. Despite having large natural gas resources, Iran has recently struggled to produce enough fuel to prevent power cuts. Much of Iran's petroleum infrastructure, including the refineries that supply products like gasoline to local markets, are old. If these facilities suffered significant damage, Iran 'might struggle more than maybe other countries' to find the spare parts and international support to repair them, Mr. Bronze said. Sanctions also mean that few customers are willing to buy Iranian oil. Nearly all of Iran's crude exports go to China. The main buyers are small refiners there, known as 'teapots' Mr. Falakshahi said, that are able to extract a substantial discount of up to $7 a barrel from the Iranians. If those refiners were unable to buy Iranian crude, they would need to look elsewhere, potentially tightening global markets. Even before the current conflict, signs were emerging of pressure on Iranian oil exports. The Trump administration has been tightening sanctions that saw a de facto easing in the Biden administration. Chinese imports dropped substantially in May, according to Kpler's estimates. Analysts say Israel's energy infrastructure could also prove vulnerable. Already, the Israeli government has as a precaution ordered a production halt at two of the country's three offshore natural gas platforms, including Leviathan, which is operated by Chevron. Gas fuels most of Israel's electric power generation. If this stoppage continued, it could also reduce or halt gas exports to Egypt, hurting customers there. Israel is also heavily dependent on imported oil brought through the port of Ashkelon in the south of the country. 'They are also very fragile,' Mr. Falakshahi said of Israel. The Saudis and the United Arab Emirates have worked in recent years to ease tensions with Iran and head off future incidents like the attack on a Saudi Aramco facility called Abqaiq in 2018 that temporarily knocked out about half of the kingdom's export capacity. Those attacks were claimed by the Houthi militant group in Yemen, but the United States at the time blamed Iran for them. Analysts have said it is conceivable that if Iran feels sufficiently threatened, it could target petroleum installations in those countries again. The question is,' Mr. Bronze said, how would Iran respond 'if it feels like its core economic interests, its energy system, have been attacked.' Farnaz Fassihi contributed reporting.
New York Times
6 days ago
- Business
- New York Times
Live Updates: Israel Bombards Tehran, Setting Oil Facilities Ablaze
Nearly all of Iran's oil exports come from the Port of Kharg Island Oil Terminal on a small coral land mass in the northern part of the Persian Gulf off the Iranian coast. The conflict between Israel and Iran appeared to be spreading on Saturday to Iran's energy infrastructure, raising fears about energy supplies from the Middle East. Iran's oil ministry blamed Israeli drones for attacking part of the South Pars natural gas field, one of the world's largest, and a refinery, causing fires at both. It is not clear how far Israel intends to go in attacking Iran's energy facilities, a crucial source of export cash for the country as well as domestic energy that looks particularly vulnerable. 'This is a first salvo into energy and a warning shot that Israel is willing to hit Iranian energy infrastructure if Israeli civilians are targeted,' said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, a research firm. Other Iranian installations are at risk, analysts say. 'There is one clear target that would make it very easy if Israel or the United States wanted to impact Iran's oil exports,' Homayoun Falakshahi, senior analyst for crude oil at Kpler, a research firm, said during a webinar on Friday. 'And this is Kharg Island.' Nearly all of Iran's oil exports leave from tankers at berths around Kharg Island, a small coral land mass in the northern part of the Persian Gulf off the Iranian coast, potentially making it a target in a protracted war, analysts say. Iran has been developing another terminal in Jask, a coastal city just outside the Strait of Hormuz on the Gulf of Oman, but its capacity appears to be limited, Mr. Falakshahi said. Israel's energy system also looks exposed, analysts say, which could potentially restrain its attacks. Were the fighting to escalate to major energy installations across the region, the consequences could be serious not only for Iran and its neighbors but for their customers, especially in Asia, and world markets. Oil prices have already jumped since the Israeli attack early Friday. Any escalation that might appear to threaten international supplies could send prices soaring. Iran's coastline stretches along the northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passageway through which tankers and other ships must pass on their way from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. Iran has a history of interfering with shipping in the area. Kpler has estimated that 21 percent of the world's liquefied natural gas, most of it from Qatar, flowed through this gauntlet in 2024. A hefty 14 million barrels of crude oil a day also moves through the strait, according to Kpler's estimates. The conflict with Israel comes at a delicate point for Iran's petroleum industry, which is a crucial pillar for its economy and its ability to fund its nuclear program. Strikes on the Iranian facilities could potentially negate years of effort to rebuild production from the low levels at the beginning of this decade when President Trump pulled out of a deal reached by President Barack Obama under which Iran agreed to curbs on its nuclear program in return for an easing of sanctions, including on its oil sales. Oil production in Iran has increased around 75 percent to about 3.4 million barrels a day from depressed 2020 levels, while exports have roughly tripled, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency and Kpler. FGE, an energy consulting firm, estimates that Iranian energy export revenues, including oil products and electricity, have almost quadrupled since 2020 to $78 billion in 2024. Even before the Israeli strikes, Iran faced major handicaps. Although it has some of the world's richest troves of oil and natural gas, it has strained to exploit them largely because of protracted political tensions with the West dating to the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. These frictions have kept Western firms from working in Iran for years. Lack of capital and expertise has limited development of oil and natural gas fields and access to major investment projects like liquefied natural gas facilities that might have benefited the Iranian industry. Qatar, whose huge gas fields in the Persian Gulf border Iran's, has become rich through L.N.G. development with western partners like Shell and Exxon Mobil, which allow the natural gas to be exported to Europe and Asia. Despite having large natural gas resources, Iran has recently struggled to produce enough fuel to prevent power cuts. Much of Iran's petroleum infrastructure, including the refineries that supply products like gasoline to local markets, are old. If these facilities suffered significant damage, Iran 'might struggle more than maybe other countries' to find the spare parts and international support to repair them, Mr. Bronze said. Sanctions also mean that few customers are willing to buy Iranian oil. Nearly all of Iran's crude exports go to China. The main buyers are small refiners there, known as 'teapots' Mr. Falakshahi said, that are able to extract a substantial discount of up to $7 a barrel from the Iranians. If those refiners were unable to buy Iranian crude, they would need to look elsewhere, potentially tightening global markets. Even before the current conflict, signs were emerging of pressure on Iranian oil exports. The Trump administration has been tightening sanctions that saw a de facto easing in the Biden administration. Chinese imports dropped substantially in May, according to Kpler's estimates. Analysts say Israel's energy infrastructure could also prove vulnerable. Already, the Israeli government has as a precaution ordered a production halt at two of the country's three offshore natural gas platforms, including Leviathan, which is operated by Chevron. Gas fuels most of Israel's electric power generation. If this stoppage continued, it could also reduce or halt gas exports to Egypt, hurting customers there. Israel is also heavily dependent on imported oil brought through the port of Ashkelon in the south of the country. 'They are also very fragile,' Mr. Falakshahi said of Israel. The Saudis and the United Arab Emirates have worked in recent years to ease tensions with Iran and head off future incidents like the attack on a Saudi Aramco facility called Abqaiq in 2018 that temporarily knocked out about half of the kingdom's export capacity. Those attacks were claimed by the Houthi militant group in Yemen, but the United States at the time blamed Iran for them. Analysts have said it is conceivable that if Iran feels sufficiently threatened, it could target petroleum installations in those countries again. 'The question is,' Mr. Bronze said, how would Iran respond 'if it feels like its core economic interests, its energy system, have been attacked.' Farnaz Fassihi contributed reporting.
Business Insider
07-06-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Dangote's $20B refinery sources U.S. crude, raising questions on Nigeria's output
The Dangote refinery, the largest crude processing facility in Africa, has been importing significant quantities of U.S. crude WTI, highlighting an apparent inconsistency given Nigeria's status as Africa's top oil producer. Africa's largest refinery, Dangote, imports significant quantities of U.S. crude, despite Nigeria being Africa's top oil producer. The refinery processes U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Midland crude for its technical advantages, such as higher yields and gasoline blending improvements. Current Nigerian crude production capacity cannot fully supply the refinery's needs, leading to a reliance on imports. Following a prolonged back-and-forth between Nigeria's national petroleum company, the Dangote $20 billion refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), has turned to the US crude oil market in 2025, sourcing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Midland crude, a Bloomberg's ship tracking data noted. The refinery's intake of American crude has risen to roughly one-third, almost double the proportion seen during its 2024 startup phase. More notably, the surge in U.S. crude imports persists despite Nigeria's status as Africa's top crude oil producer and key OPEC member. However, the country's crude production capacity is limited, and it struggles to meet the Dangote refinery's needs and broader national demands. Critics argue that the factors behind Dangote's crude reroute stem from concerns over logistics and technicalities. According to Randy Hurburun, senior refinery analyst at Energy Aspects, technical advantages play a key role. WTI Midland offers higher yields of reformate and improved gasoline blending characteristics. Additionally, the shift is a consequence of the recent downturn in Asian demand for U.S. crude, driven in part by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, which has made more Midland oil available on the global market. As a further consequence, the refinery's ramp-up has led to a tightening of Nigerian crudes, a Dangote spokesperson confirmed, noting that June's crude intake will likely include an even higher share of U.S. supply. Bloomberg added that the event would allow U.S. crude to gain a larger share of Dangote's imports compared to Nigerian crude. Dangote refinery's refining capacity The Dangote Refinery, situated in the Lekki Free Zone near Lagos, Nigeria, has a designed processing capacity of 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day (bpd), making it Africa's largest oil refinery and the world's largest single-train facility. The refinery, located near Lagos, began producing diesel and naphtha in early 2024, with gasoline output commencing in September. As of early 2025, the refinery was operating at approximately 85% capacity, processing around 550,000 bpd. To meet its crude requirements, the refinery has been importing significant quantities of U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. In June 2025, it booked approximately 300,000 bpd of WTI, and in July, it planned to import at least 5 million barrels, equating to about 161,000 bpd Once fully operational, it is projected to meet Nigeria's entire domestic demand for refined petroleum products while generating surpluses for export across Africa and beyond. The image of Nigeria, a nation rich in oil, importing crude may seem ironic, but the Dangote refinery's sourcing strategy highlights broader challenges in the country's upstream sector, including underinvestment, theft, and operational inefficiencies. In contrast, the U.S. shale sector remains agile and export-oriented, with competitive grades like WTI Midland offering technical and economic advantages for large-scale processors. As Nigeria continues to reform its petroleum sector and attract new upstream investment, the success of the Dangote refinery could mark a turning point in reducing dependence on imported fuels – albeit fueled, for now, by American crude.
CNA
05-06-2025
- Business
- CNA
Saudi Arabia lowers July oil prices for Asia after OPEC+ supply boost
Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, on Wednesday lowered its July prices for Asian buyers after OPEC+ hiked output for a fourth month although the price cut was smaller than expected. Saudi Arabia's state firm Aramco cut the official selling price for the flagship Arab light crude it sells to Asia for July to $1.20 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, 20 cents lower than June and the lowest since May. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia are raising output. Eight OPEC+ countries on Saturday agreed to another big increase of 411,000 bpd for July, having increased output by the same amount in May and June. However, Saudi Arabia's 20-cent price cut was smaller than the 40-cent to 50-cent reduction expected in a Reuters survey. "A smaller reduction was likely due to strong domestic crude burn in Saudi Arabia and refinery runs that could limit barrels available for export," said Richard Jones, an analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects. The Middle East typically burns crude and high-sulphur fuel oil for power between June and August, for the peak demand season. Analysts expected Saudi to burn more crude oil for power generation this summer. Saudi crude OSPs set the price trend for other grades exported by Iran, Kuwait and Iraq, affecting about 9 million barrels per day of crude bound for Asia. The tables below show the full free-on-board prices for June in U.S. dollars. Saudi term crude supplies to Asia are priced as a differential to the Oman/Dubai average: July June CHANGE SUPER LIGHT 1.75 1.95 -0.20 EXTRA LIGHT 1.00 1.20 -0.20 LIGHT 1.20 1.40 -0.20 MEDIUM 0.75 0.85 -0.10 HEAVY -0.30 -0.30 0 Prices at Ras Tanura destined for United States are set against ASCI: July June CHANGE EXTRA LIGHT 5.75 5.65 0.10 LIGHT 3.50 3.40 0.10 MEDIUM 3.50 3.50 0 HEAVY 3.05 3.05 0 Prices at Ras Tanura destined for Northwest Europe are set against ICE Brent: July June CHANGE EXTRA LIGHT 4.85 3.05 1.80 LIGHT 3.25 1.45 1.80 MEDIUM 2.45 0.65 1.80 HEAVY 0.05 -1.75 1.80 Prices at Ras Tanura for Saudi oil destined for the Mediterranean are set against ICE Brent: July June CHANGE EXTRA LIGHT 4.75 2.95 1.80 LIGHT 3.05 1.25 1.80 MEDIUM 2.45 0.65 1.80 HEAVY -0.25 -2.05 1.80
