Live Updates: Israel Bombards Tehran, Setting Oil Facilities Ablaze
Nearly all of Iran's oil exports come from the Port of Kharg Island Oil Terminal on a small coral land mass in the northern part of the Persian Gulf off the Iranian coast.
The conflict between Israel and Iran appeared to be spreading on Saturday to Iran's energy infrastructure, raising fears about energy supplies from the Middle East.
Iran's oil ministry blamed Israeli drones for attacking part of the South Pars natural gas field, one of the world's largest, and a refinery, causing fires at both.
It is not clear how far Israel intends to go in attacking Iran's energy facilities, a crucial source of export cash for the country as well as domestic energy that looks particularly vulnerable.
'This is a first salvo into energy and a warning shot that Israel is willing to hit Iranian energy infrastructure if Israeli civilians are targeted,' said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, a research firm.
Other Iranian installations are at risk, analysts say.
'There is one clear target that would make it very easy if Israel or the United States wanted to impact Iran's oil exports,' Homayoun Falakshahi, senior analyst for crude oil at Kpler, a research firm, said during a webinar on Friday. 'And this is Kharg Island.'
Nearly all of Iran's oil exports leave from tankers at berths around Kharg Island, a small coral land mass in the northern part of the Persian Gulf off the Iranian coast, potentially making it a target in a protracted war, analysts say.
Iran has been developing another terminal in Jask, a coastal city just outside the Strait of Hormuz on the Gulf of Oman, but its capacity appears to be limited, Mr. Falakshahi said.
Israel's energy system also looks exposed, analysts say, which could potentially restrain its attacks.
Were the fighting to escalate to major energy installations across the region, the consequences could be serious not only for Iran and its neighbors but for their customers, especially in Asia, and world markets.
Oil prices have already jumped since the Israeli attack early Friday. Any escalation that might appear to threaten international supplies could send prices soaring.
Iran's coastline stretches along the northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passageway through which tankers and other ships must pass on their way from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. Iran has a history of interfering with shipping in the area.
Kpler has estimated that 21 percent of the world's liquefied natural gas, most of it from Qatar, flowed through this gauntlet in 2024. A hefty 14 million barrels of crude oil a day also moves through the strait, according to Kpler's estimates.
The conflict with Israel comes at a delicate point for Iran's petroleum industry, which is a crucial pillar for its economy and its ability to fund its nuclear program.
Strikes on the Iranian facilities could potentially negate years of effort to rebuild production from the low levels at the beginning of this decade when President Trump pulled out of a deal reached by President Barack Obama under which Iran agreed to curbs on its nuclear program in return for an easing of sanctions, including on its oil sales.
Oil production in Iran has increased around 75 percent to about 3.4 million barrels a day from depressed 2020 levels, while exports have roughly tripled, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency and Kpler.
FGE, an energy consulting firm, estimates that Iranian energy export revenues, including oil products and electricity, have almost quadrupled since 2020 to $78 billion in 2024.
Even before the Israeli strikes, Iran faced major handicaps. Although it has some of the world's richest troves of oil and natural gas, it has strained to exploit them largely because of protracted political tensions with the West dating to the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979.
These frictions have kept Western firms from working in Iran for years.
Lack of capital and expertise has limited development of oil and natural gas fields and access to major investment projects like liquefied natural gas facilities that might have benefited the Iranian industry.
Qatar, whose huge gas fields in the Persian Gulf border Iran's, has become rich through L.N.G. development with western partners like Shell and Exxon Mobil, which allow the natural gas to be exported to Europe and Asia.
Despite having large natural gas resources, Iran has recently struggled to produce enough fuel to prevent power cuts.
Much of Iran's petroleum infrastructure, including the refineries that supply products like gasoline to local markets, are old. If these facilities suffered significant damage, Iran 'might struggle more than maybe other countries' to find the spare parts and international support to repair them, Mr. Bronze said.
Sanctions also mean that few customers are willing to buy Iranian oil. Nearly all of Iran's crude exports go to China. The main buyers are small refiners there, known as 'teapots' Mr. Falakshahi said, that are able to extract a substantial discount of up to $7 a barrel from the Iranians.
If those refiners were unable to buy Iranian crude, they would need to look elsewhere, potentially tightening global markets.
Even before the current conflict, signs were emerging of pressure on Iranian oil exports. The Trump administration has been tightening sanctions that saw a de facto easing in the Biden administration. Chinese imports dropped substantially in May, according to Kpler's estimates.
Analysts say Israel's energy infrastructure could also prove vulnerable.
Already, the Israeli government has as a precaution ordered a production halt at two of the country's three offshore natural gas platforms, including Leviathan, which is operated by Chevron. Gas fuels most of Israel's electric power generation. If this stoppage continued, it could also reduce or halt gas exports to Egypt, hurting customers there.
Israel is also heavily dependent on imported oil brought through the port of Ashkelon in the south of the country. 'They are also very fragile,' Mr. Falakshahi said of Israel.
The Saudis and the United Arab Emirates have worked in recent years to ease tensions with Iran and head off future incidents like the attack on a Saudi Aramco facility called Abqaiq in 2018 that temporarily knocked out about half of the kingdom's export capacity. Those attacks were claimed by the Houthi militant group in Yemen, but the United States at the time blamed Iran for them.
Analysts have said it is conceivable that if Iran feels sufficiently threatened, it could target petroleum installations in those countries again.
'The question is,' Mr. Bronze said, how would Iran respond 'if it feels like its core economic interests, its energy system, have been attacked.'
Farnaz Fassihi contributed reporting.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Putin says he is worried when asked if he is concerned world is heading towards World War Three
ST PETERSBURG, Russia (Reuters) -Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that he was worried when asked if he was concerned that the world was heading towards World War Three. Putin, speaking at an economic forum in St Petersburg, said there was a lot of potential for conflict in the world and that it was growing. He mentioned Russia's own war in Ukraine, the conflict between Israel and Iran, and said he was concerned by what was happening around nuclear facilities in Iran where Russian specialists are building two new nuclear reactors for Tehran. "It is disturbing. I am speaking without any irony, without any jokes. Of course, there is a lot of conflict potential, it is growing, and it is right under our noses, and it affects us directly," said Putin. "And this requires, of course, not only our careful attention to the events taking place, but also the search for solutions, the search for solutions, preferably by peaceful means, in all directions."
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Middle East tensions put investors on alert, weighing worst-case scenarios
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) -Investors are mulling a host of different market scenarios should the U.S. deepen its involvement in the Middle East conflict, with the potential for ripple effects if energy prices skyrocket. They have honed in on the evolving situation between Israel and Iran, which have exchanged missile strikes, and are closely monitoring whether the U.S. decides to join Israel in its bombing campaign. Potential scenarios could send inflation higher, dampening consumer confidence and lessening the chance of near-term interest rate cuts. This would likely cause an initial selloff in equities and possible safe-haven bid for the dollar. While U.S. crude prices have climbed some 10% over the past week, the S&P 500 has been little changed as of yet, following an initial drop when Israel launched its attacks. However, if attacks were to take out Iranian oil supply, "that's when the market is going to sit up and take notice," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. "If you get disruption to supply of oil product on the global marketplace, that is not reflected in today's WTI price and that is where things get negative," Hogan said. The White House said on Thursday President Donald Trump would decide on U.S. involvement in the conflict in the next two weeks. Analysts at Oxford Economics modeled three scenarios, ranging from a de-escalation in the conflict, a complete shutdown in Iranian production, and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, "each with increasingly large impacts on global oil prices," the firm said in a note. In the most severe case, global oil prices jump to around $130 per barrel, driving U.S. inflation near 6% by the end of this year, Oxford said in the note. "Although the price shock inevitably dampens consumer spending because of the hit to real incomes, the scale of the rise in inflation and concerns about the potential for second-round inflation effects likely ruin any chance of rate cuts in the U.S. this year," Oxford said in the note. OIL IMPACT The biggest market impact from the escalating conflict has been restricted to oil, with oil prices soaring on worries that the Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt supplies. Brent crude futures have risen as much as 18% since June 10, hitting a near 5-month high of $79.04 on Thursday. The accompanying rise in investors' expectations for further near-term volatility in oil prices has outpaced the rise in volatility expectations for other major asset classes, including stocks and bonds. But other asset classes, including stocks, could still feel the knock-on effects of higher oil prices, especially if there is a larger surge in oil prices if the worst market fears of supply disruptions come true, analysts said. "Geopolitical tensions have been mostly ignored by equities, but they are being factored into oil," Citigroup analysts wrote in a note. "To us, the key for equities from here will come from energy commodity pricing," they said. STOCKS UNPERTURBED U.S. stocks have so far weathered rising Middle East tensions with little sign of panic. A more direct U.S. involvement in the conflict could, however, spook markets, investors said. Financial markets may be in for an initial selloff if the U.S. military attacks Iran, with economists warning that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by Trump's tariffs. Still, any pullback in equities might be fleeting, history suggests. During past prominent instances of Middle East tensions coming to a boil, including the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, stocks initially languished but soon recovered to trade higher in the months ahead. On average, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% in the three weeks following the start of conflict, but was 2.3% higher on average two months following the conflict, according to data from Wedbush Securities and CapIQ Pro. DOLLAR WOES An escalation in the conflict could have mixed implications for the U.S. dollar, which has tumbled this year amid worries over diminished U.S. exceptionalism. In the event of U.S. direct engagement in the Iran-Israel War, the dollar could initially benefit from a safety bid, analysts said. "Traders are likely to worry more about the implicit erosion of the terms of trade for Europe, the UK, and Japan, rather than the economic shock to the US, a major oil producer," Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, said in a note. But longer-term, the prospect of US-directed 'nation-building' would probably weaken the dollar, he said. "We recall that after the attacks of 9/11, and running through the decade-long US presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, the USD weakened," Wizman said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Middle East tensions put investors on alert, weighing worst-case scenarios
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) -Investors are mulling a host of different market scenarios should the U.S. deepen its involvement in the Middle East conflict, with the potential for ripple effects if energy prices skyrocket. They have honed in on the evolving situation between Israel and Iran, which have exchanged missile strikes, and are closely monitoring whether the U.S. decides to join Israel in its bombing campaign. Potential scenarios could send inflation higher, dampening consumer confidence and lessening the chance of near-term interest rate cuts. This would likely cause an initial selloff in equities and possible safe-haven bid for the dollar. While U.S. crude prices have climbed some 10% over the past week, the S&P 500 has been little changed as of yet, following an initial drop when Israel launched its attacks. However, if attacks were to take out Iranian oil supply, "that's when the market is going to sit up and take notice," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. "If you get disruption to supply of oil product on the global marketplace, that is not reflected in today's WTI price and that is where things get negative," Hogan said. The White House said on Thursday President Donald Trump would decide on U.S. involvement in the conflict in the next two weeks. Analysts at Oxford Economics modeled three scenarios, ranging from a de-escalation in the conflict, a complete shutdown in Iranian production, and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, "each with increasingly large impacts on global oil prices," the firm said in a note. In the most severe case, global oil prices jump to around $130 per barrel, driving U.S. inflation near 6% by the end of this year, Oxford said in the note. "Although the price shock inevitably dampens consumer spending because of the hit to real incomes, the scale of the rise in inflation and concerns about the potential for second-round inflation effects likely ruin any chance of rate cuts in the U.S. this year," Oxford said in the note. OIL IMPACT The biggest market impact from the escalating conflict has been restricted to oil, with oil prices soaring on worries that the Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt supplies. Brent crude futures have risen as much as 18% since June 10, hitting a near 5-month high of $79.04 on Thursday. The accompanying rise in investors' expectations for further near-term volatility in oil prices has outpaced the rise in volatility expectations for other major asset classes, including stocks and bonds. But other asset classes, including stocks, could still feel the knock-on effects of higher oil prices, especially if there is a larger surge in oil prices if the worst market fears of supply disruptions come true, analysts said. "Geopolitical tensions have been mostly ignored by equities, but they are being factored into oil," Citigroup analysts wrote in a note. "To us, the key for equities from here will come from energy commodity pricing," they said. STOCKS UNPERTURBED U.S. stocks have so far weathered rising Middle East tensions with little sign of panic. A more direct U.S. involvement in the conflict could, however, spook markets, investors said. Financial markets may be in for an initial selloff if the U.S. military attacks Iran, with economists warning that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by Trump's tariffs. Still, any pullback in equities might be fleeting, history suggests. During past prominent instances of Middle East tensions coming to a boil, including the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, stocks initially languished but soon recovered to trade higher in the months ahead. On average, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% in the three weeks following the start of conflict, but was 2.3% higher on average two months following the conflict, according to data from Wedbush Securities and CapIQ Pro. DOLLAR WOES An escalation in the conflict could have mixed implications for the U.S. dollar, which has tumbled this year amid worries over diminished U.S. exceptionalism. In the event of U.S. direct engagement in the Iran-Israel War, the dollar could initially benefit from a safety bid, analysts said. "Traders are likely to worry more about the implicit erosion of the terms of trade for Europe, the UK, and Japan, rather than the economic shock to the US, a major oil producer," Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, said in a note. But longer-term, the prospect of US-directed 'nation-building' would probably weaken the dollar, he said. "We recall that after the attacks of 9/11, and running through the decade-long US presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, the USD weakened," Wizman said.
