Latest news with #EFF
IOL News
4 hours ago
- Politics
- IOL News
The political gamble of Floyd Shivambu: Is he overestimating his popularity?
Floyd Shivambu's political maneuvers raise questions about his future in MK and the potential for a new party. As he navigates a treacherous political landscape, will he succeed or face expulsion?" Image: X/floydshivambu Call South African politics and politicians many things but predictable is not one of them. Fresh from Liam Jacobs crossing over from the Democratic Alliance to his political nemesis, The Patriotic Alliance, South Africans were treated to another bombshell this week. Former EFF founder turned former uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Secretary General, Floyd Shivambu announced he was mulling the idea of forming a new party of his own - but not yet. He will remain a member of MK for now. Confused? Don't be. Its the chess game of politics. Shivambu is pulling off the same stunt as that of former president Jacob Zuma, now MK leader. Remember how Zuma made the shocking announcement he was leading MK while still a member of the ANC in 2023? He was later expelled from the ANC and returned leading the pack with MK's spectacular victory at the last general elections. Malema did the same when he too was expelled from the ANC in 2012 - and went on to form the EFF together with Shivambu. The EFF too, drew massive support away from the ANC, which was the catalyst of the party's subsequent decline. Shivambu is playing the same game. Mudding the political waters. Daring the MK to expel him. Except he is not Zuma. Or Malema. South Africans don't take well to political chameleons. Party hopping does not work unless you are a huge political figure. Shivambu is a well known figure - but not a powerful leader in his own right. He was given wings by parties led by powerful public figures who command support. Shivambu was the think-tank behind the EFF and later MK strategist and national organiser. Less than a year after joining MK, Shivambu's wings were clipped before he could fly. Was that the issue? Was Shivambu seen as a threat within MK by Zuma's inner circle? His feud with Zuma's daughter Duduzile played out on social media as she unleashed her fury at his character, calling him the 'worst thing to happen to MK'. And, despite her apology, its well known the animosity between them persisted. The tussle for Zuma's ear and ultimately control of the party. Shivambu certainly hinted at that. His axing as MK Secretary General was the final clipping of his wings and clearly ruffled his feathers enough for him to make the decision to go out on his own - at some point. Shivambu no doubt has the backing of funders who call the tune. That's just how it works. Those who pay the piper, call the tune. But is Shivambu overestimating his popularity in taking on MK and the EFF? Calling the EFF a 'cult' and Zuma 'gullible' is hardly a recipe for success when those leaders still command a massive following, especially on the ground. And more critically, Shivambu lacks the charm - crucial when mobilising support at grass roots level. Both Malema and Zuma use their personal populism which appeals to their support base. Malema, a political demagogue, uses his kill the boer song to rile African support while Zuma's identity in Zulu tribalism is his draw card. Both the EFF and MK have leaders as their brand identities. Shivambu taking them on is brave but a huge miscalculation. Already, the response to him potentially forming his own party is being shot down by most South Africans. Social media is abuzz as South Africans weigh in. Shivambu is being called out as not trust worthy for visiting fraud accused fugitive pastor Shepherd Bushiri. He is also being taken to task for remaining within MK while talking of forming a new party. His bold announcement may have backfired. During his media briefing, a confident Shivambu threw several salvos at MK - a party he still remains a member of. He accused Zuma of being surrounded by 'political scoundrels' who he said 'take drugs and tweet at night' - a thinly veiled reference to Duduzile, the only one who has openly criticised Shivambu with her late night tweets previously. Clearly Shivambu is being led to believe the time is right for another political party. Its a path many before him have followed, some popular, others simply overestimating their popularity. And, despite the misguided reference to Zuma as 'gullible,' Shivambu knows too well his days with MK are numbered. He will be expelled. Others before him faced the same fate for far less transgressions within the party. Zuma will not tolerate Shivambu campaigning for another party while within the MK. And Shivambu's expulsion is not a question of if - but when. And, given Zuma's fury at Shivambu, that expulsion is likely to be fast and furious. Until then, Shivambu is a man on the ledge. ** Zohra Teke is an independent writer and journalist. *** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL IOL Opinion Zohra Teke Image: Independent Newspapers
Mail & Guardian
7 hours ago
- Politics
- Mail & Guardian
One-year-old GNU brings stability, but fails on other metrics
No goal: ActionSA, which chose to remain outside the government of national unity, gave a damning evaluation of the GNU. Photo: @Presidency/ZA/X Observers say the government of national unity has kept parties such as the EFF and MK in check, but jobs, growth and reform remain elusive This content is restricted to subscribers only . Join the M&G Community Our commitment at the Mail & Guardian is to ensure every reader enjoys the finest experience. Join the M&G community and support us in delivering in-depth news to you consistently. Subscription enables: - M&G community membership - independent journalism - access to all premium articles & features - a digital version of the weekly newspaper - invites to subscriber-only events - the opportunity to test new online features first Already a subscriber?
The Citizen
7 hours ago
- Politics
- The Citizen
No, Malema, the UK is not a bully
The UK is not bullying Malema by refusing him entry. Sovereign nations decide who crosses their borders based on national interest. Surely, EFF leader Julius Malema could not have been surprised that the government of the United Kingdom turned down his request for a visitor's visa? Much as he might weep and wail about the colonial masters again abusing African people, the reality is that London is quite entitled to decide who it allows through its borders. And, in the opinion of His Majesty's Government, to allow Malema to enter the UK 'would not be conducive to the public good'. Apart from the UK government's concern that he had refused, in a 2022 Equality Court hearing in South Africa, to commit to not repeating calls for the 'slaughter of white people', the Home Office also noted he had voiced support for the Palestinian organisation Hamas. ALSO READ: Banned again: Malema's presence not 'conducive to the public good', say UK authorities The organisation is classed as 'terrorist' in the UK and expressing support for it is a crime, as Liam O'Hanna, a member of Irish rap group Kneecap, found out when he was charged this week for a terrorism offence after allegedly waving a Hamas flag at a concert. The mood of much of the West would have been influenced by footage US President Donald Trump showed recently of Malema's rendition of Kill the Boer. This visa refusal probably won't be the last for Malema.
Business Recorder
10 hours ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Budget FY26: balancing social sector priorities amid fiscal constraints
Pakistan's federal budget for FY2025-26 has come at a critical time. The country is going through a fragile phase of economic recovery; provisional GDP for FY stands at a recovering & stable rate of 2.68 percent, remittances are increasing, inflation rates have declined and primary surplus currently constitutes 3 percent of the GDP (March-July 2024-25). Economists and fiscal experts are now debating whether the determined budgetary outlay will help maintain this trajectory or not. However, with persistent structural challenges in the country, i.e., rising gender inequality and regional disparity, growing climate vulnerability and a youth bulge, one also needs to analyze the situation based on considerations for resilient growth and inclusive development, mandates that can only be achieved through equitable social sector investment. Will this fiscal outline help align national goals with SDGs as well as move forward the mandate of URAAN Pakistan with its 5Es framework? To have a quick overview, the budget has assumed a modest economic rebound for the fiscal year 2025-26, characterized by an economic growth rate of 4.2 percent but an inflation rate as high as 7.5 percent. Amidst the challenging environment of two IMF Programmes, the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), the budget has somewhat prioritised fiscal consolidation and revenue-based targets; 18 percent taxation on imported solar panels, higher petroleum development levy (collection target of Rs 1.468 trillion) and FED revenue target of Rs 888 billion for FY 2025–26. The tension, however, has slightly been eased up by measures such as strategic relief for the salaried class (mainly lower to middle income tiers) and a 7 percent increase in pensions. The National Economic Council has established a budget of Rs 4224, out of which Rs 1000 billion has been issued for the Federal PSDP (60 percent focusing on large-scale infrastructural projects), and a handsome amount of Rs 2,869 billion for provincial ADPs. With reference to social sector development, this is the most relevant area of concern, particularly after the passage of the 18thamendment, that led to the devolving of areas such as health and education to provinces. Unfortunately, despite the continuous efforts to bring social development into the heart of our development agenda, the budgetary priorities have caused significant cuts in social sector allocations. In the health sector, while non-development expenditures have increased, development expenditures have reduced from Rs. 27 billion to Rs 14.3 billion (almost half). This caters to 21 ongoing and new initiatives for preventive care, treatment and disease control and modern infrastructure, medical education, extension of cancer hospital and critical care facility, and the largest share being attributed to a tertiary care facility completion in Islamabad. In Budget FY 2024-25, one billion was allocated to the Federal Social Health Insurance, Sehat Sahulat Programme, while there is no direct allocation mentioned in this year's budget. The sustainability of this programme has long been a challenge, particularly due to its overambitious expansion of population and treatment coverage. However, this programme still serves as a major relief for the poorest segments of our society and protects them from catastrophic health expenditures that can push families below poverty line. Higher Education Commission (HEC) has experienced a drop from Rs.61.1billion (158 development projects) to Rs 39.5 billion (170 HEC projects). The combined allocation for water sector and hydropower projects has also seen major slashing and mismanagement, despite the ongoing concerns over potential water blockages by India. These financial cuts not only compromise critical areas of human capital development, but also deepen socioeconomic crises such as illiteracy, limited access to education facilities, malnutrition and water scarcity and mismanagement for the most vulnerable groups of our society, i.e., adolescent girls, children and the youth. While stability and reform are integral for the country's economic future, one needs to question as to what price will the common citizens have to pay, in exchange for their compromised socioeconomic well-being, financial security and the basic right to life? Considering the evolving dynamics of the world, there have been some significant strides as well; climate tagging of subsidies for government officials, incorporation of the component of disability-friendly infrastructure in HEC initiatives, and alignment of youth skill development programmes (allocation of Rs 4.3 billion) with the mandate of URAAN Pakistan. Moreover, BISP (Social Protection) has seen financial allocations grow 21% than last year, a generous amount for the expansion of its flagship initiatives. However, despite these positive developments, persistent institutional flaws, fiscal pressure, and political interference continue to hinder progress in the social sector. In short, at a time when inclusive growth and creation of a resilient workforce should be national imperatives, merely focusing on infrastructural revamping and macroeconomic stability is not the right way forward. While the government has announced some remarkable interventions in critical areas of health, education and social protection, they are still unable to fully embrace the principles of inclusive, resilient and well-governed growth. To truly align our national goals with SDGs, the policy and institutional framework needs to be thoroughly analyzed to make sure that the social sector is not overlooked under fiscal constraints but rather seen as a core pillar of human capital development and hence, economic progress. Only by placing the vulnerable groups of society at the heart of our development agenda and policy can Pakistan move towards sustainable prosperity. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Business Recorder
10 hours ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Policy issues in the EFF programme — III
Covid-19 pandemic, and then the catastrophic floods in 2022, both of which had significant climate change causality – towards which Pakistan has contributed very little in terms of global carbon footprint – and pushed the country to take on considerable amount of loan — on top of its already difficult situation in terms of debt distress before these two events — that has created a meaningful gross financing issue for the country over the last few years, and over a medium term horizon. Multilateral support during both these events has been seriously lacking, including the one-time SDR allocation by IMF to the tune of around USD 2.7 billion in August 2021 – where allocation rather than being based on needs in the exceptional environment of the pandemic, was made as per the usual criteria of quota – was significantly far less than what was needed. Despite repeated calls by development activists internationally, and similar demands made under Barbados's PM Mia Mottley-led 'Bridgetown Initiative', nothing of substance has been done in this regard by the IMF. Table 3b titled 'Pakistan: External Gross Financing Requirements and Sources, 2022/23–2029/30' from May 2025 released 'IMF Country Report No. 25/109' highlights this otherwise much needed provision of IMF SDR allocation to be zero over the medium-term, which is the entire period covered in the table. On the contrary, financing requirements are huge – from FY2025-26 to FY2029-30 they are projected at USD 19.3 billion, USD 19.8 billion, USD 31.4 billion, USD 23.1 billion, and USD 22.2 billion, respectively – even after including very modest levels of current account deficit — for the same fiscal years, being projected at USD 1.5 billion, USD 2.1 billion, USD 3.9 billion, USD 4.7 billion, and USD 5.7 billion, respectively. Policy issues in EFF programme — I Pakistan's exports depend heavily on imported intermediaries, which are not possible to be appropriately make in the wake of lack of meaningful support from IMF in terms of enhanced SDR allocation — on top of releases to the tune of only USD 1 billion from time to time over roughly three-year EFF programme, which began in September 2024, and which are quite insignificant when seen in the context of the huge gross financing requirements — since the quota-based SDR allocation as assistance in the pandemic in August 2021 was low to start with, and since then likely climate change caused floods-related losses have not received much multilateral support, not to mention that the country is among the top-ten most vulnerable countries with regard to climate change crisis, and faces significant gross financing requirements over the medium term. Hence, in the absence of meaningful SDR allocation, and the adoption of otherwise unjustified over-board austerity policy, it is hard to import needed level of intermediaries for exports, which is among the main sustainable sources to achieve macroeconomic stability, to come out of the debt distress, and to move towards higher economic growth. Moreover, a lack of exports would mean lack of capacity to sustainably meet debt obligations, where unlike IMF's assessment in the report that 'Public debt remains sustainable over the medium-term… near-term risks of sovereign stress remain high…' both short-term, and medium-term risks are high, especially due to significant downside risks on account of a very volatile geopolitical situation – the recent Iran-Israel conflict saw a sudden spike in oil prices from around USD 65 per barrel to around USD 75 per barrel — and fast-unfolding climate change crisis — the Finance Minister reportedly indicated a significant role of climate change in reducing in reducing agricultural yield of major crops over the current fiscal year — creating upward pressures on imports payments, along with likely hurting exports, which overall means further increase in external financing gap, and may also result in greater debt distress. Policy issues in the EFF programme – II Instead of realizing the need to provide meaningful support in terms of enhanced SDR allocation — which is a global need being highlighted over the last few years, as indicated above, as a number of developing countries are facing serious debt distress — IMF is dealing with this situation in a routine way, in terms of the usual prescription of country enhancing its productive efficiency, which is in general a rather long-term variable in the presence of non-radical economic reform strategy that the neoliberal, and over-board austerity-based current EFF programme is not allowing. In the meantime, the country is stuck in a low-growth equilibrium. Lack of needed much larger reform scope in the current EFF programme, austerity-based approach not allowing greater investment into the demos to enhance their economic empowerment, and political voice to put greater pressure on public policy for radical, and deeper reforms, and no enhanced allocation of SDRs – not even once over the medium-term, which is the entire time horizon reflected in the programme document – coupled with a highly volatile environment of polycrisis, will likely not allow the country to reach sustainable macroeconomic stability. This in turn, would not allow the country to board an upward moving economic growth trajectory in any sustainable way. In that sense, the current EFF programme is just providing financial support mainly for a few more years to pass in a low-growth environment, which will neither help in creating basis for enhancing the export base for meaningfully dealing with the debt distress, including bringing gross financing needs to a sustainable level, nor will allow build-up of economic growth, and resilience to lower the otherwise fast-increasing poverty levels – where close to half of the population is below poverty line as per recently released World Bank figures – and to be better prepared for climate change crisis, and related 'Pandemicene' phenomenon; where Pakistan is among the top-ten climate change crisis affected countries. (Concluded) Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
