Latest news with #DuncanWeldon
Spectator
4 days ago
- Business
- Spectator
The bloodstained origins of the Italian Renaissance
War – huh – what is it good for? According to Duncan Weldon, throughout most of history it's been fantastic for economic growth and development and has perhaps fuelled technological innovation and more. Blood and Treasure is a delightfully quirky approach to military history. Colonial Spain was thought to be cursed by the gold brought home from its colonies in the New World, since the crown somehow bankrupted itself multiple times during this period, despite the riches. Weldon contends that since the gold meant that Spain's monarchs did not need to approach parliament for money, it left them untethered from their economies and constraints. He also offers an alternative theory for why the Renaissance originated in Italy, suggesting that it was a result of the particular way in which Italian city states waged almost perpetual war on each other by means of mercenaries. Commanders of such companies would infinitely prefer to drag out a conflict and avoid major battles – in which they might die. Huge fortunes were thus amassed, which translated into social status through patronage of the arts. Given that the book covers a vast period and range of geographies, it is perhaps best viewed as a collection of vignettes, each containing a lesson about how combat interacted with the everyday economy. The most convincing example of the destructive, coercive force of war being also a major driver of growth and better living conditions can be seen in a study of India. Weldon describes how researchers pinpointed the dates and locations of conflict in the subcontinent going back 1,000 years. They then used satellite imagery from 1992 to 2010 to assess the level of night-time electric lighting across the country (creating proximate measures for economic development where no such granular data existed) to check for a correlation. They found that areas where there had been intensive fighting tended to be more economically developed, even centuries later. The conclusion was that warfare leads to a strengthening of local governments and institutions, which in turn is conducive to growth. When the book turns to more recent times, such intriguing, counterintuitive stories disappear. Pre-industrial societies, Weldon explains, worked below their capacity, so when extra materials were needed for warfare it resulted in growth. Post-industrial societies do not have spare capacity waiting to be used, so modern warfare, in its destructiveness, ends up killing growth. In a sense it is convenient that the story changes, given the difficulties that might result from claiming any modern conflict would actually be a good thing when the casualties are those who might otherwise be alive today. But it inevitably means that the book's later pages are less lively. Blood and Treasure risked falling between two stools – being military history targeted at people who don't normally read it, satisfying neither warfare nerds nor those looking for a post-Freakonomics hit. Thanks to an obvious deep love of the subject, a deft choice of examples and some thoroughly satisfying human stories, Weldon has at least made warfare a good thing to read about.
Irish Independent
06-06-2025
- Business
- Irish Independent
Even the Vikings knew it didn't pay to smash everything up: what you didn't know about the economics of war
From Genghis Khan giving us a first taste of globalisation to the consequences of over-estimating Russian power in the war in Ukraine, Duncan Weldon gives us an original and sharp take on the forces that have shaped our world Today at 21:30 From early empires to modern superpowers, the pursuit of wealth and the waging of war have rarely been separate endeavours. Battles have been fought not only over territories and beliefs, but also over resources and the hope of prosperity. Economic ambition has driven conquest just as often as conquests have reshaped economies. It is this complex entanglement of war and money that is studied deeply by Duncan Weldon in Blood and Treasure: The Economics of Conflict from the Vikings to Ukraine.
Globe and Mail
12-05-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Market Factors: What to make of today's surprise rally
With this edition of Market Factors I detail the sheer breadth of confusion and exasperation among market professionals and provide a historical investment strategy based on the gold rush. The diversion is aeronautical and we look ahead to important data releases for the week ahead Market professionals were clearly frustrated with the surprise announcement of Chinese tariff delays and generally taken aback by the extent of Monday's rally. One foreign exchange trader noted, 'four more years of this [three and an half, really] is frankly untenable.' Economist and author Duncan Weldon mused that 'Market reaction is fascinating, in that what was once a terrifying scenario is now a positive development' with respect to the tariff news. Pseudonymous trader Selling Theta admitted 'this is the most confused I've been since James Spader's season on The Office.' Wall Street strategists attempting to guide investors maintained skepticism. Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, went back to basics, urging a cautious outlook while looking back to the underpinnings of the market rally: deregulation, hopes for a pro-growth tax bill, low energy prices, stimulative trade deals and increased defence sales. Ms. Shalett is doubtful these market boosting, largely political initiatives will be accomplished. She notes that 'achieving them will take luck and skill – especially amid looming U.S. debts, geopolitical instability and slim legislative margins.' I haven't seen any credible market pundit confidently assessing the current situation and predicting the immediate future for equities. Finance theory says that uncertainty like this, with market moving news dropping out of the sky at regular intervals, should lead to weaker markets but that's not evident at all today. I stated previously that I don't like this U.S. market and that remains the case. Citi U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert emphasizes that there are signs of weakening American consumption even before the inflationary effects of new tariffs are expected to hit the data. The most recent earnings season saw significant downward revisions to forward guidance. It's not that helpful for me to point out that confusion reigns in markets right now but that is the case nonetheless. All investors can do is make sure they are diversified to the best of their ability, maybe carry a bit more cash than usual, and ride it out. A picks and shovels investment strategy, one of my favourites, is analogous to a gold rush where the best way to get rich is to sell mining equipment rather than buying a claim and digging for gold like everyone else. Done right, picks and shovels stocks benefit without regard to how successful investors in the underlying trend turn out to be. A recent Wells Fargo report provided strategist Christopher Harvey's picks and shovels investment ideas for the artificial intelligence investment theme. Specifically, these are companies that are expected to benefit from the initial buildout of AI capacity that will happen even if the promise of AI is never realized. Mr. Harvey emphasizes that the AI theme is in its early innings, with the dominant players enjoying strong profitability. Nothing resembling the 2000 tech implosion is on the horizon. He also points out that many of the stocks trade at near-market average valuation levels but with much faster growth. The stocks are Quanta Services, Eaton Corp. Plc, GE Vernova Inc, Vertiv Holding-A, Arista Networks, Ciena Corp., Celestica Inc., Coherent Corp., Astera Labs Inc., Adv Micro Device, Broadcom Inc., Credo Technology, Marvell Technology, Micron Tech, Nvidia Corp., Taiwan Semic-Adr, Dell Technologies, Pure Storage, Digital Realty, Equinix Inc., Constellation Energy, Nextera Energy, NRG Energy, Talen Energy Corp. and Vistra Corp. BofA Securities analyst Ronald Epstein described what very much sounds like a potential revolution in the aerospace industry – the open rotor engine. The new design resembles a turbofan engine without an external housing and the architecture is estimated to save 20 per cent or more on fuel relative to existing fleets, which amounts to almost US$10-billion extra in the pockets of U.S. airlines. The airline industry is reluctant to adopt wholesale change and the new engines would require new aircraft – the propellers are longer and won't fit on existing planes, so nothing is guaranteed. Increased noise is also a hurdle to overcome. Nonetheless, General Electric is spending considerable funds on investing and many major airlines are due to update their fleet. Testing on an Airbus A380 is scheduled for this year and next. Looking for our updates on market movers, analyst actions, stock technicals, insider trades and other daily, weekly and monthly insight? Click here to visit our Inside the Market page. Units in RioCan REIT are in the dumps, but David Berman sees reason for optimism CIBC's chief market technician is on a roll with his monthly stock picks. Here's what he suggests for this month Should you buy a restaurant royalty trust based solely on expectations of a buyout? John Heinzl shares some thoughts. Tom Bradley explains how 'slippage' can hurt your portfolio Manufacturing sales for March on Thursday is the first domestic data of note and a decline of 1.9 per cent is expected month over month. An update on international securities transactions is out Friday. For domestic earnings we have Constellation Software Inc. out after today's close (US$18.837 per share expected). CAE Inc. ($0.45) and Power Corp. of Canada ($1.255) both report on Tuesday. U.S. economic data points include CPI for April on Tuesday where a month-over-month increase of 0.3 percent is expected. A flat result is forecast when advance retail sales for April is released on Wednesday and industrial production for April (0.2 per cent month over month forecast) is out the same day. The leading index of economic indicators will be released next Monday. A light U.S. earnings calendar includes Cisco Systems Inc. (US$0.916) on Wednesday, Walmart Inc. (US$0.581) and Applied Materials (US$2.313) on Thursday. See our full economic and earnings calendar here (You can bookmark the page - it gets updated weekly)
