Latest news with #DavyRussell
The Herald Scotland
13-06-2025
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
The SNP could be the largest party in 2026 with just 43 MSPs
Writing in The Herald, the Associate Member of the Centre on Constitutional Change said: 'If the unmodelled swing away from the SNP in Hamilton is replicated elsewhere next May, the SNP would win eleven fewer seats than expected. 'Only a couple more would be needed to bring them down to the 47-seat mark.' That would make it far harder for the SNP to form a minority government, the academic said. READ MORE Mark McGeoghegan: Scottish Labour should not be too enthusiastic over Hamilton result Councillors fined for safety failings after disabled swimmer almost drowned SNP on track for Holyrood landslide on 35% vote Sixth Aberdeenshire councillor defects to Reform UK amidst Tory collapse Mr McGeoghegan said that while 54 seats might be enough to govern with support from the Greens or Liberal Democrats. However, with 47 seats, Mr Swinney would need at least two partners "unless Labour or Reform backed them, making the 2026–31 Scottish Parliament the first without a realistic two-party majority since 2011.' Last week's by-election saw Labour's Davy Russell narrowly take the seat by 602 votes, winning 31.6% of the vote to the SNP's 29.4%. Reform UK came a close third with 26.1%. Anas Sarwar hugs Davy Russell (Image: Jane Barlow) Polling ahead of the contest had suggested a tight SNP win in the constituency. Mr McGeoghegan said the final result did not indicate a major shift in the national mood, with both Labour and the SNP landing broadly within the expected margin of error. 'The only party that significantly outperformed their polling was Reform UK,' he noted. Using various national projections, Mr McGeoghegan modelled possible outcomes for the 2026 election if current polling averages hold. His own forecast puts the SNP on 60 seats, with Labour and Reform UK tied on 17. Other models — including those by Ballot Box Scotland and Professor Sir John Curtice — predict similar outcomes, with the SNP between 54 and 62 seats, and Labour trailing in the mid-to-high teens. Historically, Mr McGeoghegan said, a party polling at the SNP's current levels 'would only win around 47 seats.' Their current projected overperformance, he added, is due to the fragmented unionist vote, which allows the SNP to win constituencies with relatively low vote shares. 'The SNP's projected overperformance is entirely a result of the split unionist vote,' he said. 'They can win as little as a third of the constituency vote nationally while sweeping the vast bulk of Scotland's 73 constituency seats.' However, those narrow wins are not compensated on the regional list, he warned, meaning small swings could result in substantial seat losses. Mr McGeoghegan said his model suggests a swing of under 5% from the SNP to Labour could cost the SNP a further eight constituency seats — with two vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats and six to the Conservatives. While Labour welcomed the by-election win as a sign of growing momentum, Mr McGeoghegan warned it remained 'a by-election victory full of caveats.' 'It neither indicated that John Swinney's days as First Minister are numbered nor that Anas Sarwar is on track for Bute House,' he said. 'But it did send an obvious signal: the SNP's position is far more fragile than we thought.'
The Guardian
12-06-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
‘Disastrous': John Swinney facing SNP backlash after Hamilton byelection loss
SNP activists and senior figures have vented their frustrations at their leader, John Swinney, after a 'disastrous' byelection campaign that saw the party lose a pivotal Holyrood seat to Scottish Labour. The party was also accused of running a 'panicked' campaign that some believe pushed more voters towards Reform in last Thursday's Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse byelection. SNP members are voicing criticisms of the result at branch meetings, with Swinney expected to face robust questioning at the SNP's national executive committee meeting on Sunday. Central to members' concerns was the key campaign message that the byelection was a two-horse race between the SNP and Reform UK, which has been gaining ground in Scotland since last year's general election. That was coupled with the party's failure to promote independence as an alternative to the rightwing populist party's divisive rhetoric. In the event, Scottish Labour's popular local candidate, Davy Russell, pulled off an unexpected victory, beating the Nationalists' Katy Loudon by 600 votes, with Reform UK's Ross Lambie 800 votes behind her. Since last Thursday's result, Swinney has faced calls to resign from veteran SNP critics as well as feverish speculation about plots among senior party figures to oust him. The former SNP MP Tommy Sheppard, writing in the National earlier this week, branded the strategy a 'disaster'. 'The message to anyone flirting with Reform UK is that they are a serious contender, best placed to upset the SNP. We make their argument for them.' One experienced campaigner said: 'People think the party got it wrong this time.' They argued, however, that members remained willing to give Swinney initial time to reflect, before adding 'if he digs his heels in around strategy and doesn't listen, it will be a very different mood'. Others pointed out that, compared with the 'off-the-scale' internal divisions experienced by the party towards the end of Nicola Sturgeon's leadership and under her successor, Humza Yousaf, current discontent is relatively minimal. In a modest reshuffle on Wednesday morning, Swinney created an elevated role as cabinet secretary for housing for the rising star Màiri McAllan as she returned from maternity leave, signalling a renewed focus on voter priorities ahead of next May's Holyrood elections. The Guardian understands that Swinney faced criticism of the Hamilton strategy at a 'fractious' MSP group meeting on Tuesday. There he repeated his insistence that the Reform-focused strategy was led by what canvassers were hearing on the doorstep. But one senior backbencher suggested that Swinney had 'panicked' at the growing support for Reform – who secured 26% of the vote last week – especially after their strong showing in the English council elections, which took place just as the Hamilton campaign was gaining momentum. 'He talked about Reform too much and not enough about Katy. We didn't give people a reason to vote for us.' At this Sunday's meeting of senior party officials, insiders expect 'a demand for a clearer vision, focused on independence'. Stewart McDonald, the influential former SNP MP, praised Swinney's leadership as having broought calm after 'an incredibly turbulent few years', but said he urgently needed to give party and government 'a renewed sense of purpose'. 'The party's campaign infrastructure is dated, tired, analogue and it needs to be modernised. Labour outgunned us on the ground in Hamilton and we cannot let that happen in 2026. For the government, people need to start seeing tangible improvements in their living standards and in public services. He has started that process but now needs to put it on steroids. This is the most effective way to ensure we win next year and answer many of the grievances that are driving so many people to Reform: a laserlike focus on making Scotland better'. Another former MP said Swinney had to pivot fast: 'It's either that or lose the next election. The party failed to act after Rutherglen [another bellweather byelection defeat, in 2023] and the MPs lost. We can't afford to lose the Scottish government so this is the last-chance saloon.'
Daily Record
11-06-2025
- Politics
- Daily Record
New Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse MSP takes his seat at Holyrood
Davy Russell was officially sworn in at at the Scottish Parliament on Tuesday. Davy Russell has been officially sworn in as the new MSP for Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse following his victory in the constituency's by-election on Thursday. The Labour politician headed to Holyrood for the first time on Tuesday and took the oath of office at the start of the day's business session in the debating chamber, where he was applauded by fellow MSPs and welcomed to the parliament by presiding officer Alison Johnstone. He said: 'I'm honoured and humbled to have been chosen by the people of Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse to represent them; I'm here to fight for them. I've listened to them for weeks and now I'm going to take their case forward.' Mr Russell registered a surprise win at the polls, claiming 8559 votes to take the seat with a 602 majority ahead of the SNP and third-placed Reform, who respectively polled 7957 and 7088 votes. He told the Hamilton Advertiser following the count and declaration at South Lanarkshire Council's headquarters how his first week would be a 'learning curve' – and he is now getting down to work at the Scottish Parliament on behalf of his new constituents. The new MSP was welcomed to Holyrood by Labour parliamentary colleagues, all wearing red rose buttonholes for the occasion; with Mr Russell taking his seat in the chamber alongside Central Scotland colleague Monica Lennon after officially taking his oath. Mr Russell posted on X: 'It's the honour of my life be elected to represent the community I love and call home. I will work night and day to deliver for my constituents [and] my promise to [them] is that I will work tirelessly to be a local champion.' He called his win 'a springboard for Scottish Labour to the reins and be in charge of the Scottish Government next May' following the parliament's general election; while Labour leader Anas Sarwar said the party's newest parliamentarian 'will work tirelessly' for his new constituents and said the voters of Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse 'are leading the way to a Scottish Labour government in 2026'. One of Mr Russell's first local engagements following his election was a visit to the Hamilton branch of Sainsbury's along with Ms Lennon in support of trade union Usdaw's 'freedom from fear' campaign, which aims to prevent violence, threats and abuse against shopworkers. They spoke to trade union officials and police officers during the visit to the store at Hamilton retail park. Ms Lennon said: 'No-one should face abuse or violence just for doing their job. Davy and I were pleased to join these retail workers, who are on the front line of our communities – they deserve respect, protection, and action from governments and employers. 'Retail crime, including theft and knife incidents, is a growing concern. We'll keep working with trade unions, police and local groups to make our communities safer and fairer for all.'
The National
11-06-2025
- Politics
- The National
There's no excuse for SNP supporters voting for Reform UK
I am an SNP member and yes, I am angry! The wind continues to set fair for our independence yet the SNP stay becalmed in the shallows! READ MORE: Labour MSP Davy Russell sworn in to Scottish Parliament Certainly it is anger-inducing, but there are two things you never do: 1) vote for an anti-independence party and 2) (never ever ever) vote for fascists! It is not as if there are not pro-independence parties to vote for if you want to protest; there are the Scottish Socialist Party or the Greens, for example! Or is it the case that some supposed independence supporters found it easy to make their mark for Reform without holding their noses! Drew Macleod Wick
Scotsman
11-06-2025
- Politics
- Scotsman
Reform and SNP are two sides of the same coin
PA Sign up to our daily newsletter – Regular news stories and round-ups from around Scotland direct to your inbox Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... Like most political animals, I have always enjoyed the drama of by-elections. Whilst seldom making a difference to who actually governs us in the short-term, they can be clear indicators of the mood music amongst the public towards parties vying for power, particularly when the next national election is not so far away. That said, I didn't stay up for the result in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election last week, not expecting much in the way of drama. My expectation was that there would be a fairly comfortable SNP victory, with the only real interest being whether Reform would finish third or manage to beat Labour into second place. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad I woke up in the morning to a WhatsApp message from a colleague expressing surprise at the outcome, and when I checked the numbers I had to share that sentiment. Few saw the Labour candidate Davy Russell's victory coming, and it is all the more to his credit, and that of his campaign team, that they were able to pull off a quite dramatic victory against the odds. So congratulations are due first of all to Labour in delivering a result which undoubtedly is a boost to Anas Sarwar. Having been written off by the pundits, and with a candidate widely ridiculed for his refusal to participate in TV debates, it demonstrated the importance of a strong, local narrative in winning votes. The Scottish Conservatives had an equally strong local candidate in Cllr Richard Nelson from Larkhall who fought an energetic campaign albeit one we knew never had any realistic prospect of victory. Fourth place was always the best place we could hope for in this seat, as our voters were squeezed to vote tactically either for Labour or for Reform to beat the SNP. On the doorstep we met loyal Conservative voters who told us that they would be using this by-election to 'send a message' to the SNP by voting tactically for whoever they thought was best placed to defeat them, but at next year's Holyrood election would be back voting for us again. That said, we know there is work to be done in presenting a compelling message to maximise our vote for Holyrood in 2026. The real losers on the night were, of course, the SNP. All the polls suggested that this is a seat that they would hold, and the party poured in resources, with numerous visits by leadership figures from the First Minister John Swinney downwards. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad The SNP strategy appeared politically clever, if essentially dishonest, in attempting to portray the contest as a two-horse race between them and Reform. This was designed to squeeze Labour voters, in particular, into voting SNP as the lesser of two evils. It backfired spectacularly. The Reform vote was indeed substantial, but if we analyse the figures, it seems that Reform's gains were not so much at the expense of Labour, or even the Conservatives. The 26 per cent of the vote achieved by Reform, at a time when Labour's vote share hardly moved, can only be explained by looking at the 17 per cent drop in the SNP vote. There was a direct transfer from one party to another. Perhaps this should not surprise us. Both SNP and Reform are essentially parties of protest, who have spent years pointing the blame elsewhere for the country's troubles – in the case of Reform, to the EU and immigrants, and in the case of the SNP, to Westminster governments. I can well remember at a previous election meeting on a doorstep in Perthshire one voter who we had previously identified as a regular Conservative supporter, who came out red-faced and angry to lambast me for the failings of the Tory government. 'You've let me down', he shouted, 'letting far too many immigrants in. That's it, I've had it with you lot. From now on I'm voting SNP'. It was an encounter indicative of a particular type of individual who rages at the world around them. These will be some of the people who were motivated to vote for independence in 2014 on the basis that anything must be better than what we currently have. And it will be some of the same people who were amongst the 2 in 5 Scots who voted for Brexit in 2016. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad For years the SNP have played the part of a populist party, simultaneously in government and in opposition, blaming all Scotland's ills not on their own failings but on big, bad Westminster. Now we have the new entrants on the scene in Reform, singing a different song to the same tune. To change the metaphor, the two Parties are essentially opposite sides of the same coin. They are parties who seek not to find solutions to the complex issues that face our country, but rather resort to simplistic slogans appealing to the basest level. Little wonder, then, that voters have little difficulty in switching between the two. Swinney's claim that Reform's values are antithetical to Scotland now look ridiculous, when his Party was not only defeated in Hamilton, but finished a mere 869 votes ahead of Farage's. Scottish exceptionalism has never had such a rude awakening. Over the last 18 years, the SNP have demonstrated how far populist politics can take you. Now, the rise of Reform shows they have a significant competitor for that segment of the population who are content to blame others for the country's woes. Fortunately, there is an alternative: the serious parties prepared to do the heavy lifting in proposing credible solutions to fix the problems in our society.
