The SNP could be the largest party in 2026 with just 43 MSPs

Writing in The Herald, the Associate Member of the Centre on Constitutional Change said: 'If the unmodelled swing away from the SNP in Hamilton is replicated elsewhere next May, the SNP would win eleven fewer seats than expected.
'Only a couple more would be needed to bring them down to the 47-seat mark.'
That would make it far harder for the SNP to form a minority government, the academic said.
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Mr McGeoghegan said that while 54 seats might be enough to govern with support from the Greens or Liberal Democrats.
However, with 47 seats, Mr Swinney would need at least two partners "unless Labour or Reform backed them, making the 2026–31 Scottish Parliament the first without a realistic two-party majority since 2011.'
Last week's by-election saw Labour's Davy Russell narrowly take the seat by 602 votes, winning 31.6% of the vote to the SNP's 29.4%. Reform UK came a close third with 26.1%.
Anas Sarwar hugs Davy Russell (Image: Jane Barlow) Polling ahead of the contest had suggested a tight SNP win in the constituency.
Mr McGeoghegan said the final result did not indicate a major shift in the national mood, with both Labour and the SNP landing broadly within the expected margin of error.
'The only party that significantly outperformed their polling was Reform UK,' he noted.
Using various national projections, Mr McGeoghegan modelled possible outcomes for the 2026 election if current polling averages hold.
His own forecast puts the SNP on 60 seats, with Labour and Reform UK tied on 17.
Other models — including those by Ballot Box Scotland and Professor Sir John Curtice — predict similar outcomes, with the SNP between 54 and 62 seats, and Labour trailing in the mid-to-high teens.
Historically, Mr McGeoghegan said, a party polling at the SNP's current levels 'would only win around 47 seats.' Their current projected overperformance, he added, is due to the fragmented unionist vote, which allows the SNP to win constituencies with relatively low vote shares.
'The SNP's projected overperformance is entirely a result of the split unionist vote,' he said.
'They can win as little as a third of the constituency vote nationally while sweeping the vast bulk of Scotland's 73 constituency seats.'
However, those narrow wins are not compensated on the regional list, he warned, meaning small swings could result in substantial seat losses.
Mr McGeoghegan said his model suggests a swing of under 5% from the SNP to Labour could cost the SNP a further eight constituency seats — with two vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats and six to the Conservatives.
While Labour welcomed the by-election win as a sign of growing momentum, Mr McGeoghegan warned it remained 'a by-election victory full of caveats.'
'It neither indicated that John Swinney's days as First Minister are numbered nor that Anas Sarwar is on track for Bute House,' he said. 'But it did send an obvious signal: the SNP's position is far more fragile than we thought.'

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