Latest news with #DavidKaroly
ABC News
05-06-2025
- Climate
- ABC News
Farmers face 'new world' of extreme weather as scientists urge action on climate change
Scientists and politicians are warning big policy shifts are needed to mitigate extreme weather impacts, following what farmers describe as unprecedented flooding in the New South Wales Hunter and Mid North Coast regions last month. Climate scientist and University of Melbourne Emeritus Professor David Karoly said a near-stationary high pressure system in the Tasman Sea had contributed to the high rainfall event, stalling a moist, easterly flow of air over the NSW coast. Dr Karoly, who is a member of the Climate Council, said governments needed to take action on climate change to limit these types of extreme events. He said a range of approaches were needed, including changes to farming practices. "Farmers have to think about how they can reduce erosion associated with some of these increased rainfall extremes, but also need to think about how they can manage their farm dams because we're also seeing increases in the frequency of drought," he said. Craig Emerton, whose family has been farming at Croki since 1856, described the May floods as "totally unprecedented", with water levels three times higher than he had experienced before. However, the dairy farmer said he was not convinced climate change was the issue. He pointed to geography for evidence of what happened before Australia was colonised and flood height records were started. "When we look at the landform on this coastal flood plain, we can see that there's been big floods over the years where sediment has built up," he said. "My dad spoke of six floods in six weeks … so we just happen to be in a very wet period." At Dungong, fellow dairy farmer Sue McGinn shared his view. "I believe the Australian climate has always been a land of droughts and floods," she said. In March, ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred crossed Ms McGinn's property, then what she described as a "rain bomb" dumped another 200 millimetres in just a few hours in the middle of the night on May 3. She said it was the farm's most difficult season in 31 years, and she and her husband were exhausted by the repeated setbacks. While both farmers are right that Australia has always had extreme weather events like this, what is changing is the frequency and intensity of those events. The Climate Council said the recent flooding disasters are linked to human-led climate change caused by emissions from fossil fuels. Chief executive Amanda McKenzie said a number of events combined to make the May floods more severe. They included an increase in the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere, which reached a record high in 2024 at about 5 per cent above the 1991–2020 average, according to Climate Council data. The Bureau of Meteorology said in its Special Climate Statement 77 in September 2023 that every 1 degree Celsius of warming could increase moisture in the atmosphere by 7 per cent, which could provide more energy for some processes that generated extreme rainfall events. Ms McKenzie said Australia was experiencing 7 to 28 per cent more rain for shorter duration rainfall events and 2 to 15 per cent more rain for longer duration events. Scientists can analyse whether single extreme events are linked to climate change. Extreme weather research organisation ClimaMeter, funded by the European Union and the French National Centre for Scientific Research, has published a paper looking at the link between climate change and the May NSW floods. It studied changes in weather patterns since 1950 and concluded that the extreme precipitation that caused the flooding was intensified by human-induced climate change, with natural variability playing a secondary role. NSW Greens MP Sue Higginson is also a farmer in the Northern Rivers region. Her property on the Richmond River near Lismore was impacted by the 2022 flood, and she puts the blame for such events squarely on climate change. Ms Higginson said some farming practices were no longer viable and communities would need to adjust. "In the north, we're looking at some of our very low-lying cane fields, we know they're no longer viable in the coming years," she said. In some cases, Ms Higginson said farmers would have to move. "When we get to the hard edges where we can't adapt to a changing climate, then yes, we have to retreat and relocate," she said. She said governments must stop approving new fossil fuel projects. "When I see the premier and the ministers out there on the frontline of the disaster zones … but then in the same breath on the same day we see the NSW government approving brand new coal expansions in the Hunter Valley … that sort of hypocrisy or not joining the dots I think is doing no-one any favours," Ms Higginson said. Dr Karoly said while the link between climate change and extreme weather was well-known, Australia did not have a national climate adaptation plan. "There was one due out before the last election, but it's been delayed," he said. He said he wanted the government to stop approving fossil fuel developments and to increase taxes on the mining industry to fund projects that helped communities address repeat disasters. Dr Karoly said Taree may need to consider levee banks, relocating houses, and drainage systems that could remove floodwater quickly. "What we need are local plans for doing that effectively and rapidly," he said.
Time Out
04-06-2025
- Climate
- Time Out
Australia's ski seasons are melting away – and could disappear completely by 2050
Reporting live from Sydney, I can confirm that winter is well and truly here. The actual temperature currently reads a drizzly 12 degrees, but my weather app says it 'feels like' a frosty four – which justifies me busting out my puffer jacket for its seasonal debut. But while the chill is real, it's not all snowflakes and rainbows – especially for Australia's ski fields. The past two winters have been incredibly disappointing for snow enthusiasts, with warm temperatures delaying the start of the season and rainy weather forcing Australia's top ski resorts to shut early. In fact, 2023 and 2024 were the hottest Aussie winters in history – and with more above-average temperatures on the horizon, things aren't looking good for our ski fields. What to expect for Australia's 2025 snow season? The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has forecast unusually high daytime temperatures across southern and eastern Australia, right where our ski fields sit. David Karoly, Professor Emeritus at the University of Melbourne and Councillor at Climate Council of Australia, says, 'We can also expect warmer-than-average nights, which makes it hard for snow to form and settle. It also means fewer nights with good conditions for snow-making overnight.' While the BoM predicts rainfall will return to normal following droughts in southeastern Australia, above-average temperatures could see precipitation in the mountains fall as rain, not snow, melting the existing snow base faster or washing it away entirely. Professor Karoly warns that this trend will continue in the years to come, "We have had declines of maximum snow depth and decreasing season length at Australian ski resorts reported for over 30 years… The declines are greatest at lower elevation resorts and on lower elevation slopes, where the temperatures are higher and the melting is faster.' Can artificial snow save Australia's ski industry? Australia's ski fields have become increasingly reliant on machine-made snow, with all Aussie ski resorts except Mount Stirling currently using some level of snowmaking to improve the quality and length of the season. While it's a temporary fix, experts warn artificial snow is not a sustainable solution – for two main reasons. Firstly, the climatic conditions required to produce the snow are becoming less reliable due to climate change. Artificial snow only works when it's cold enough that the snow doesn't melt, when there's enough humidity in the air and when there's lots of water – something that's becoming increasingly scarce in the southern Alps. On top of that, there are significant water and electricity costs associated with snowmaking. For perspective, covering the equivalent of an AFL stadium would require 1 million litres of water, with billions invested in machine-made snow across the country. Are Australia's ski resorts at risk of closing for good? The sad reality is that Australia's ski resorts won't be economically viable if they depend on natural snowfall alone. Dr Lily O'Neill, Director of Protect Our Winters Australia, explains, 'Future generations of Australians will know skiing, but not to the same extent as we do today. The more we get on with cutting climate pollution, largely by continuing to move away from the burning of fossil fuels like coal and gas, the better chance future generations will have at experiencing skiing here at home.' What will Australia's snow seasons look like in 2050? According to Our Changing Snowscapes – an Australian-first report exploring climate change's impacts on the Australian Alps – there may be no reliable ski areas left in Australia by 2050. Ski seasons are forecast to shrink by between 44 and 55 days (42 to 52 per cent), and the amount of machine-made snow needed to sustain a 100-day ski season (the minimum days for a ski field to remain viable) is predicted to increase by 71 to 98 per cent in the 2050s. However, we're not giving up all hope just yet. Dr O'Neill adds, 'Enjoying ski seasons later into this century should still be possible if the Albanese government takes action to keep us in a low emissions scenario, particularly for higher-altitude resorts, like Hotham and Thredbo.' Those that are at lower altitudes are particularly vulnerable and already feeling the impacts of climate pollution, and planned adaptation needs to start happening now in these communities.' Dr O'Neill is also calling for more year-round investment to help ski resorts diversify beyond snow activities. Professor Karoly agrees, 'Tourism operators may be able to adapt by switching to promoting other activities in spring and summer, such as mountain walking, horse riding and trail biking.' You can see what's in store for Australia's snow seasons and what's needed to protect them by reading the full report here.
The Advertiser
01-06-2025
- Climate
- The Advertiser
Slushy start: warmer winter a downer for ski slopes
The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season. Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs yet the Bureau of Meteorology's predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts. Yet the University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter. Weatherzone further described conditions as "unfavourable" early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months. For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture. Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead. BOM's long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas. Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations. "The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow," he told AAP. "And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons." Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm. Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base. Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario. The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk. Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O'Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were "profoundly upset" by shortening snow seasons. "The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change," she told AAP. Ms O'Neill said Australia's snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report. The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season. Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs yet the Bureau of Meteorology's predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts. Yet the University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter. Weatherzone further described conditions as "unfavourable" early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months. For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture. Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead. BOM's long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas. Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations. "The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow," he told AAP. "And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons." Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm. Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base. Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario. The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk. Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O'Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were "profoundly upset" by shortening snow seasons. "The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change," she told AAP. Ms O'Neill said Australia's snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report. The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season. Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs yet the Bureau of Meteorology's predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts. Yet the University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter. Weatherzone further described conditions as "unfavourable" early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months. For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture. Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead. BOM's long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas. Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations. "The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow," he told AAP. "And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons." Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm. Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base. Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario. The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk. Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O'Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were "profoundly upset" by shortening snow seasons. "The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change," she told AAP. Ms O'Neill said Australia's snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report. The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season. Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs yet the Bureau of Meteorology's predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts. Yet the University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter. Weatherzone further described conditions as "unfavourable" early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months. For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture. Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead. BOM's long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas. Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations. "The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow," he told AAP. "And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons." Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm. Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base. Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario. The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk. Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O'Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were "profoundly upset" by shortening snow seasons. "The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change," she told AAP. Ms O'Neill said Australia's snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report.
Otago Daily Times
31-05-2025
- Climate
- Otago Daily Times
Warmer winter a downer for Aussie ski slopes
The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season. Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs, yet the Bureau of Meteorology's predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts. However, University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter. Weatherzone further described conditions as "unfavourable" early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months. For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture. Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead. BOM's long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas. Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations. "The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow," he told AAP. "And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons." Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm. Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base. Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario. The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk. Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O'Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were "profoundly upset" by shortening snow seasons. "The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change," she told AAP. Ms O'Neill said Australia's snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report.
Perth Now
31-05-2025
- Climate
- Perth Now
Slushy start: warmer winter a downer for ski slopes
The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season. Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs yet the Bureau of Meteorology's predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts. Yet the University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter. Weatherzone further described conditions as "unfavourable" early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months. For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture. Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead. BOM's long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas. Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations. "The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow," he told AAP. "And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons." Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm. Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base. Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario. The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk. Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O'Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were "profoundly upset" by shortening snow seasons. "The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change," she told AAP. Ms O'Neill said Australia's snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report.
