Farmers face 'new world' of extreme weather as scientists urge action on climate change
Scientists and politicians are warning big policy shifts are needed to mitigate extreme weather impacts, following what farmers describe as unprecedented flooding in the New South Wales Hunter and Mid North Coast regions last month.
Climate scientist and University of Melbourne Emeritus Professor David Karoly said a near-stationary high pressure system in the Tasman Sea had contributed to the high rainfall event, stalling a moist, easterly flow of air over the NSW coast.
Dr Karoly, who is a member of the Climate Council, said governments needed to take action on climate change to limit these types of extreme events.
He said a range of approaches were needed, including changes to farming practices.
"Farmers have to think about how they can reduce erosion associated with some of these increased rainfall extremes, but also need to think about how they can manage their farm dams because we're also seeing increases in the frequency of drought," he said.
Craig Emerton, whose family has been farming at Croki since 1856, described the May floods as "totally unprecedented", with water levels three times higher than he had experienced before.
However, the dairy farmer said he was not convinced climate change was the issue.
He pointed to geography for evidence of what happened before Australia was colonised and flood height records were started.
"When we look at the landform on this coastal flood plain, we can see that there's been big floods over the years where sediment has built up," he said.
"My dad spoke of six floods in six weeks … so we just happen to be in a very wet period."
At Dungong, fellow dairy farmer Sue McGinn shared his view.
"I believe the Australian climate has always been a land of droughts and floods," she said.
In March, ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred crossed Ms McGinn's property, then what she described as a "rain bomb" dumped another 200 millimetres in just a few hours in the middle of the night on May 3.
She said it was the farm's most difficult season in 31 years, and she and her husband were exhausted by the repeated setbacks.
While both farmers are right that Australia has always had extreme weather events like this, what is changing is the frequency and intensity of those events.
The Climate Council said the recent flooding disasters are linked to human-led climate change caused by emissions from fossil fuels.
Chief executive Amanda McKenzie said a number of events combined to make the May floods more severe.
They included an increase in the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere, which reached a record high in 2024 at about 5 per cent above the 1991–2020 average, according to Climate Council data.
The Bureau of Meteorology said in its Special Climate Statement 77 in September 2023 that every 1 degree Celsius of warming could increase moisture in the atmosphere by 7 per cent, which could provide more energy for some processes that generated extreme rainfall events.
Ms McKenzie said Australia was experiencing 7 to 28 per cent more rain for shorter duration rainfall events and 2 to 15 per cent more rain for longer duration events.
Scientists can analyse whether single extreme events are linked to climate change.
Extreme weather research organisation ClimaMeter, funded by the European Union and the French National Centre for Scientific Research, has published a paper looking at the link between climate change and the May NSW floods.
It studied changes in weather patterns since 1950 and concluded that the extreme precipitation that caused the flooding was intensified by human-induced climate change, with natural variability playing a secondary role.
NSW Greens MP Sue Higginson is also a farmer in the Northern Rivers region.
Her property on the Richmond River near Lismore was impacted by the 2022 flood, and she puts the blame for such events squarely on climate change.
Ms Higginson said some farming practices were no longer viable and communities would need to adjust.
"In the north, we're looking at some of our very low-lying cane fields, we know they're no longer viable in the coming years," she said.
In some cases, Ms Higginson said farmers would have to move.
"When we get to the hard edges where we can't adapt to a changing climate, then yes, we have to retreat and relocate," she said.
She said governments must stop approving new fossil fuel projects.
"When I see the premier and the ministers out there on the frontline of the disaster zones … but then in the same breath on the same day we see the NSW government approving brand new coal expansions in the Hunter Valley … that sort of hypocrisy or not joining the dots I think is doing no-one any favours," Ms Higginson said.
Dr Karoly said while the link between climate change and extreme weather was well-known, Australia did not have a national climate adaptation plan.
"There was one due out before the last election, but it's been delayed," he said.
He said he wanted the government to stop approving fossil fuel developments and to increase taxes on the mining industry to fund projects that helped communities address repeat disasters.
Dr Karoly said Taree may need to consider levee banks, relocating houses, and drainage systems that could remove floodwater quickly.
"What we need are local plans for doing that effectively and rapidly," he said.
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