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Wall Street Journal
21 hours ago
- Politics
- Wall Street Journal
Iran Is Down, but Not Yet Out
As Israel's mission to destroy Iran's nuclear capacity continues, a grave and obvious question confronts us: How did the West, the U.S. in particular, allow Tehran's nuclear threat to grow unchecked for so long? David Albright, an American physicist and nuclear-weapons tracker, is among the world's foremost experts on Iran's nuclear program. He's president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a nonprofit, nonpartisan institution that focuses on the spread of nuclear weapons to rogue nations and terrorists. On June 12, the day before the first Israeli attack, Iran could 'make enough weapon-grade uranium for 11 nuclear weapons within a month,' Mr. Albright says. Pre-attack Iran was on track to have enough highly enriched uranium for 22 weapons in five months.
Telegraph
5 days ago
- Politics
- Telegraph
Battle Lines: Iran's nuclear bunkers and Israeli air power
It's day four of Israel's relentless bombing campaign against Iran, and the death toll is spiralling. Iran says 224 of its citizens are dead. Israel reports 24 lives lost and over 500 injured in a barrage of Iranian retaliatory strikes. And this war is only just getting started. The Israeli airstrikes have gone far beyond nuclear sites. Government buildings, intelligence headquarters, ministries of justice and foreign affairs—obliterated. Tehran is being shaken to its core. Is this really just about nukes? Or are we watching an attempt to bring the regime to its knees? On the streets of Israel, the mood is grim but defiant. Iranian missiles have struck Tel Aviv and other cities hard. So how much more can Israel's famed Iron Dome take? We speak to The Telegraph 's man in Jerusalem, Henry Bodkin, who's been reporting from the sites of the Iranian attacks. His frontline insights give us a chilling look at the damage—and the determination of a country under fire. Then we hear from two men who know what they're talking about. David Albright has spent years analysing Iran's nuclear ambitions. He tells us how close they really are to the bomb—and whether Israeli jets can stop it. And Frank Ledwidge, former intelligence officer and expert on air campaigns, tells us why this war will drag on, and what Israel's real endgame might be.
The Print
7 days ago
- Politics
- The Print
Israel crushed Ayatollah's regime, but stopping Iran's nuke programme will need total overthrow
As the Americans and British did in 1953, Israel will likely need to go further and dismantle the regime for its strategy to succeed. The reason is simple: Israel has acted to ensure that no rival power in the Middle East can threaten its undisclosed nuclear arsenal. Nuclear experts like David Albright say there is so far little sign that deeply buried uranium enrichment facilities, such as those at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz, have suffered severe damage . This week, precision Israeli air strikes blew apart the ferocious imperial façade of the theocracy that governs Iran, a system long sustained by bluff. Iran's doddering Cold War-era air force and much-hyped homegrown air defences failed to protect critical military facilities, and the country's highest-ranking officials were scythed through in precession attacks. Iran's retaliatory strikes, launched with a fleet of low-cost, homemade ballistic missiles, proved largely ineffective . When the assassins' knives had done their work, scholar, journalist, and diplomat Lawrence Paul Elwell-Sutton ruminated about why it had to be done : 'Really, it seemed hardly fair that dignified and correct Western statesmanship should be defeated by the antics of incomprehensible orientals.' In the summer of 1951, the radical Iranian politician Mohammad Mossadeq had nationalised the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, Britain's prized oil concession. Furious, the West began quietly plotting his downfall, fearing that Iran was sliding towards communism. Ending the war with the regime intact, then, could lead Iran to make the fateful decision to produce and test a nuclear weapon. That process could take far less time than most imagine. As physicist Hui Zhang points out, China could assemble a testable nuclear device in just three weeks in 1964, even without advanced equipment. Israel hopes its assault will open the door for Iranians fed up with their regime to bring down the Ayatollahs—or, alternatively, for groups like the Islamic State or ethnic Baloch insurgents to turn the regime's gaze inward. It's a high-stakes gamble—and one that could prove to be the undoing of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Also read: Attacking Iran's nuclear programme won't bolster Israel's national security A triumph foretold Even though Iran's missile capabilities have been talked up by experts across the world, the truth is the Ayatollah's military core is rusted through. Last year, a rare leak of radar-screen images aired on Iranian news channels revealed that Natanz was being defended by radar systems made by the Soviet Union in the 1970s, and homemade missiles lacked the capacity to effectively coordinate. Even the limited number of Russian-made S-400 systems supplied to Iran proved incapable of shielding against Israel's advanced F-22 and F-35 jets. To make things worse, Iran's air force still relies largely on the Cold War-era F-4 Phantom II and locally built derivatives of the Northrop F-5, both originally supplied by the United States. The air force also has a small number of MiG29 jets from the Soviet era. But neither China nor Russia has been willing to provide the Islamic Republic with modern fighter platforms or advanced missile systems. Iran's retaliatory missile strikes on Israel in 2024 exposed the limitations in its 'Atmanirbhar' missile programme. Many missiles failed to launch, were intercepted, or struck far off their intended targets. These shortcomings are largely because Iran has been denied access by sanctions to technologies needed for precision guidance. The Iranian response to Israel's strikes this week further demonstrated these weaknesses. While drones like the HESA Shahed 136 have seen some success in Ukraine, that success comes in a vastly different battlespace—where adversaries are in close contact and not protected by air defences. Israel, in contrast, has been able to provide its thinly inhabited territories with a layered air defence network, helped by the vast distances that slow-moving drones have to travel from Iran. Iran's top leadership, The New York Times reporter Farnaz Fassihi noted, also miscalculated the risk of an Israeli strike, assuming Israel would not act just days before scheduled negotiations with the United States. This allowed Israeli special forces to target top officials using agents already stationed on the ground. What remains unclear, though, is the strategic question: Can Israel's strikes actually prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and what might happen if they do not? Also read: New round of Iran nuclear negotiations begins. Time to talk about Israel's atomic bombs too The Iran-Israel nuclear dyad Twin flashes of light over a remote island in the Indian Ocean, captured by an American spy satellite in September 1979, established to the world that Israel had become the sixth nuclear power, following the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, France, and China. French assistance, historian Avner Cohen writes, helped Israel overcome the substantial technical and financial barriers to developing nuclear weapons. France, ironically, also helped lay the foundation for Iran's nuclear programme. Faced with the threat of the Soviet Union and unpersuaded by Western security guarantees, Iran's monarch, Shah Reza Pahlavi, authorised a civilian nuclear programme that ran alongside a secret weapons project. In 1974, Iran signed contracts with the French company Framatome to build two pressurised water reactors, followed by a deal with Germany to construct six more. Throughout the 1970s, commercial competition among France, Germany, and the United States, scholar Mustafa Kibaroglu writes, enabled countries like Pakistan, South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Iran, and Libya to access sensitive nuclear technologies with relative ease. Ironically again, scholar Trita Parsi records, Israel itself built the missile production facility that laid the foundation for Iran's modern guided missile programme. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled the Shah, Iran also signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Pakistan in 1987. This agreement gave Tehran access to blueprints and equipment from the black-market network run by Abdul Qadeer Khan, as political scientist Molly MacCalman's authoritative work shows. These developments were driven by the regime's lessons from the savage war with Saddam Husain's Iraq, where it found itself facing a brutal conflict supported by the West. In response, then-Parliament Speaker and military chief Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani declared, 'We should fully equip ourselves both in the offensive and defensive use of chemical, bacteriological, and radiological weapons.' For Iran's clerical regime, these existential concerns made nuclear capabilities a necessity. For Israel, they created a rising threat that the country's leaders could not, and would not, tolerate. Also read: Analysis—Israel's attacks on Iran hint at a bigger ambition: regime change The endgame in Iran Stolen documents acquired by Israeli intelligence make it clear that Iran made a firm political decision in the late 1990s to pursue nuclear weapons capability. Likely, multiple circumstances shaped the decision of Iran's clerical leadership. First, the Gulf war in 1990 had demonstrated that the United States could rapidly dismantle Saddam Husain's military—forces that were far superior to Iran's. Then, despite the war's end, Iran continued to face a threat from Iraq. The Iranian leadership ordered scientists to develop five 10-kiloton nuclear bombs as an initial deterrent. The events of 9/11, though, and the discovery of the Khan nuclear smuggling network changed the world. In an effort to seek a rapprochement with the West, Iran partially halted its nuclear weapons work and opened its nuclear facilities and uranium stockpiles to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In 2015, Iran finally hammered out a deal with the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany. In exchange for an end to sanctions, Iran committed to capping its uranium enrichment at 3.67 per cent—well below the 20 per cent threshold that allows for rapid refinement to weapons-grade levels. But in 2019, under pressure from Israel, President Donald Trump resiled on the agreement. Israel argued that Iran's missile programme gave it the capability to deliver a nuclear bomb, which—as its own experience showed—could be secretly assembled. Learning from that experience that sanctions didn't stop the development of an Iranian bomb, Trump's second term saw him reach out to reinstate the nuclear deal. Trump's public statements suggest he tried to delay an Israeli strike while using it as a tool to extract new concessions from Iran's leadership. Khalid Bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's defence minister and the son of its monarch, King Salman bin Abdulaziz, is also reported to have delivered a secret message to Iran in April, warning of Israeli military action if a deal was not made. Israel and the United States are now betting that Iran's leadership will acknowledge their military and economic weakness and return to the negotiating table. Trump, in particular, has held out an olive branch after Israel's strikes, promising Iran 'a second chance.' But like all gambles, the outcome of this one is impossible to predict. Iran's leaders may conclude that they're better off rapidly producing a nuclear weapon and then using it to secure a better bargain. And that could lead Israel to escalate its military campaign, with unpredictable consequences not just for Iran, but for global energy markets and Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Even if Iran's regime were to collapse, the new dispensation will be driven by the same existential anxieties that led the Ayatollahs to seek a nuclear weapon. The CIA-facilitated coup that overthrew Mossadeq might have beaten back the Left in Iran, but it also laid the groundwork for the very missile and nuclear programmes that now threaten Israel. The dangerous truth is that the breakdown of the world order—whether through Russia's war in Ukraine, or China's threats to countries like South Korea and Japan—is leading more and more states to wonder whether the nuclear weapons are worth the price. That is leading all into a new kind of world, with hazards we can now only dimly conceive. Praveen Swami is contributing editor at ThePrint. His X handle is @praveenswami. Views are personal. (Edited by Prashant)
CTV News
14-06-2025
- Politics
- CTV News
Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear program are sweeping but can they decimate it?
Israel's sweeping attack across Iran struck at the heart of Tehran's nuclear program, delivering a blow to the country's ability to enrich uranium and potentially setting its nuclear ambitions back by months or years. As well as killing key military figures and nuclear scientists, the Israeli strikes destroyed part of a plant that was enriching uranium to levels far beyond the requirements for nuclear-fueled power stations. The attacks also destroyed backup power for the underground section of the plant, potentially damaging more sensitive equipment. Iran's nuclear program has progressed rapidly since 2018, when the U.S. withdrew from a deal to limit Tehran's capacity to enrich uranium, which is necessary to build a nuclear weapon. Iran maintains that its program is peaceful, but the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that the country has enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs if it chose to do so. Nuclear regulators said the assault was unlikely to lead to increased levels of radiation, even at the site where part of the fuel-enrichment plant was destroyed. Here's a closer look at the attack and its likely effects on Iran's nuclear efforts. What impact will the attacks have on Iran's nuclear program? There is 'no question' Israel's attacks did substantial damage, said Fabian Hinz, an expert on Iran's nuclear program at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London. David Albright, a nuclear weapons expert, speculated that the initial wave of attacks could set back any Iranian attempt to develop a nuclear weapon by about a year. A key question, Hinz said, is whether Israel also targeted suppliers of specialist components such as centrifuges and subcontractors. Israel's strategy appears to be to 'destroy the brains' behind the program and 'as much equipment as possible,' said Albright, who agreed that Israel has potentially done a 'tremendous amount of damage' to the program. Israel is widely believed to be behind a series of attacks in recent years that targeted Iranian nuclear scientists and sabotaged nuclear facilities. What damage was done to Iran's nuclear facilities? Hinz suggested a key Israeli goal was to undermine Iran's ability to make centrifuges, which are critical for enriching uranium. Uranium enrichment is a key component of building a nuclear weapon, but Iran would still need to develop a detonator. Delivering it using a missile would require solving further technical challenges. Iran has two uranium-enrichment sites, and the country said Wednesday that it has built and will activate a third enrichment facility. Early Friday, Israel struck Iran's main and oldest facility in Natanz, 220 kilometres (135 miles) southeast of Tehran, which was protected by anti-aircraft batteries, fencing and Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. The IAEA's chief, Rafael Grossi, told an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on Friday that the above-ground part of the plant where uranium was enriched up to 60 per cent was destroyed, along with electrical infrastructure, including a substation, the main electric power supply building, the emergency power supply and backup generators. Grossi said there were no changes to radiation levels following the attack or any indication of damage to the underground section of the plant. That part of the facility is buried to protect it from airstrikes and contains the bulk of Natanz's enrichment facilities, with 10,000 centrifuges that enrich uranium up to five per cent, Albright said. However, Grossi said, the loss of power may have damaged centrifuges. There is a good chance the strikes still caused 'massive damage,' Hinz said because many of the centrifuges were probably operating at the time of the strike. Centrifuges, Albright said, 'don't like vibration,' and the shock waves or loss of power could break delicate parts when they are rotating at high speed. What about the Fordo nuclear site? Most of Iran's centrifuges are in Natanz, the experts said, because a lot of them are required to enrich uranium to 5 per cent — which is the maximum level normally used for nuclear-fueled power stations. But, buried under a huge mountain at Fordo, around 100 kilometres (60 miles) southwest of Tehran, is another nuclear facility where Iran is also enriching uranium to 60 per cent, which is only a short step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 per cent. According to the IAEA, Tehran has the largest number of its most powerful centrifuges at Fordo. An Iranian news outlet close to the government reported Friday that two explosions were heard near the Fordo site. But, while Israel could potentially hit the entrance to Fordo and temporarily block access, it is not believed to have the type of earth-penetrating bombs required to blow up the mountain and crack open the nuclear facility inside, Hinz said. That capacity lies with the U.S., which has developed a massive bomb that can be dropped only from large aircraft that Israel does not have in service, he said. The potential for more strikes loomed large. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the attacks will continue 'for as many days at it takes to remove this threat.' Hinz said the attacks showed Israeli intelligence had 'absolutely exceptional' knowledge of Iran's nuclear program and the ability to strike at key targets 'with precision.' That could mean Israel could sabotage the plant, rather than trying to blast the mountain open. Albright suggested Israel could try to cut off electricity to Fordo, which could lead to centrifuges breaking. Is there risk from radiation? Although Grossi said part of the enrichment facility at Natanz was destroyed, he noted that radiation levels had not spiked. Even if radiation did leak, experts said, the amount would be unlikely to pose a risk to people in the region or even those near the facilities that got hit. 'Very little uranium will be released in these kind of attacks,' Albright said. Uranium itself is not especially toxic, he said, and is common in parts of the environment. A person standing near an enrichment facility with a leak would probably be exposed to no more radiation than someone who took several transatlantic flights, which receive slightly higher radiation because radiation doses are larger at high altitudes, he said. In order to become sick, someone would have to ingest large quantities of uranium, Albright said, pointing out that the element can be found naturally in seawater and the earth's crust. Rather than radiation, the greater risk might be from fluorine, which is used to enrich uranium and could have been deadly to those nearby if released during an attack. Fluorine is mixed with the uranium during enrichment to turn it into a gas called uranium hexafluoride. It is extremely volatile, will quickly corrode and can burn the skin. It is especially deadly if inhaled. The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content. Emma Burrows And Stephanie Liechtenstein, The Associated Press
Washington Post
14-06-2025
- Politics
- Washington Post
How Israeli strikes dealt a serious blow to Iran's nuclear ambitions
Israel's sweeping attack across Iran struck at the heart of Tehran's nuclear program , delivering a blow to the country's ability to enrich uranium and potentially setting its nuclear ambitions back by months or years. As well as killing key military figures and nuclear scientists, the Israeli strikes destroyed part of a plant that was enriching uranium to levels far beyond the requirements for nuclear-fueled power stations. The attacks also destroyed backup power for the underground section of the plant, potentially damaging more sensitive equipment. Iran's nuclear program has progressed rapidly since 2018, when the U.S. withdrew from a deal to limit Tehran's capacity to enrich uranium, which is necessary to build a nuclear weapon. Iran maintains that its program is peaceful, but the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that the country has enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs if it chose to do so. Nuclear regulators said the assault was unlikely to lead to increased levels of radiation, even at the site where part of the fuel-enrichment plant was destroyed. Here's a closer look at the attack and its likely effects on Iran's nuclear efforts. Israel killed top military figures and nuclear scientists and destroyed part of a key enrichment site. There is 'no question' it did substantial damage, said Fabian Hinz, an expert on Iran's nuclear program at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London. David Albright, a nuclear weapons expert, speculated that the initial wave of attacks could set back any Iranian attempt to develop a nuclear weapon by about a year. A key question, Hinz said, is whether Israel also targeted suppliers of specialist components such as centrifuges and subcontractors. Israel's strategy appears to be to 'destroy the brains' behind the program and 'as much equipment as possible,' said Albright, who agreed that Israel has potentially done a 'tremendous amount of damage' to the program. Israel is widely believed to be behind a series of attacks in recent years that targeted Iranian nuclear scientists and sabotaged nuclear facilities. Hinz suggested a key Israeli goal was to undermine Iran's ability to make centrifuges, which are critical for enriching uranium. Uranium enrichment is a key component of building a nuclear weapon, but weapons also require detonators and a means of delivery, like missiles. Iran has two uranium-enrichment sites, and the country said Wednesday that it has built and will activate a third enrichment facility. On Thursday, Israel struck Iran's main and oldest facility in Natanz, 220 kilometers (135 miles) southeast of Tehran, which was protected by anti-aircraft batteries, fencing and Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. The IAEA's chief, Rafael Grossi, told an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Friday that the above-ground part of the plant where uranium was enriched up to 60% was destroyed, along with electrical infrastructure, including a substation, the main electric power supply building, the emergency power supply and backup generators. Grossi said there were no changes to radiation levels following the attack or any indication of damage to the underground section of the plant. That part of the facility is buried to protect it from airstrikes and contains the bulk of Natanz's enrichment facilities, with 10,000 centrifuges that enrich uranium up to 5%, Albright said. However, Grossi said, the loss of power may have damaged centrifuges. There is a good chance the strikes still caused 'massive damage,' Hinz said because many of the centrifuges were probably operating at the time of the strike. Centrifuges, Albright said, 'don't like vibration,' and the shock waves or loss of power could break delicate parts when they are rotating at high speed. Most of Iran's centrifuges are in Natanz, the experts said, because a lot of them are required to enrich uranium to 5% — which is the maximum level normally used for nuclear-fueled power stations. But, buried under a huge mountain at Fordo, around 100 kilometers (60 miles) southwest of Tehran, is another nuclear facility where Iran is also enriching uranium to 60%, which is only a short step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. According to the IAEA, Tehran has the largest number of its most powerful centrifuges at Fordo. An Iranian news outlet close to the government reported Friday that two explosions were heard near the Fordo site. But, while Israel could potentially hit the entrance to Fordo and temporarily block access, it is not believed to have the type of earth-penetrating bombs required to blow up the mountain and crack open the nuclear facility inside, Hinz said. That capacity lies with the U.S., which has developed a massive bomb that can be dropped only from large aircraft that Israel does not have in service, he said. The potential for more strikes loomed large. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the attacks will continue 'for as many days at it takes to remove this threat.' Hinz said the attacks showed Israeli intelligence had 'absolutely exceptional' knowledge of Iran's nuclear program and the ability to strike at key targets 'with precision.' That could mean Israel could sabotage the plant, rather than trying to blast the mountain open. Albright suggested Israel could try to cut off electricity to Fordo, which could lead to centrifuges breaking. Although Grossi said part of the enrichment facility at Natanz was destroyed, he noted that radiation levels had not spiked. Even if radiation did leak, experts said, the amount would be unlikely to pose a risk to people in the region or even those near the facilities that got hit. 'Very little uranium will be released in these kind of attacks,' Albright said. Uranium itself is not especially toxic, he said, and is common in parts of the environment. A person standing near an enrichment facility with a leak would probably be exposed to no more radiation than someone who took several transatlantic flights, which receive slightly higher radiation because radiation doses are larger at high altitudes, he said. In order to become sick, someone would have to ingest large quantities of uranium, Albright said, pointing out that the element can be found naturally in seawater and the earth's crust. Rather than radiation, the greater risk might be from fluorine, which is used to enrich uranium and could have been deadly to those nearby if released during an attack. Fluorine is mixed with the uranium during enrichment to turn it into a gas called uranium hexafluoride. It is extremely volatile, will quickly corrode and can burn the skin. It is especially deadly if inhaled. ___ The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation . The AP is solely responsible for all content. ___ Additional AP coverage of the nuclear landscape:
