How Israeli strikes dealt a serious blow to Iran's nuclear ambitions
Israel's sweeping attack across Iran struck at the heart of Tehran's nuclear program , delivering a blow to the country's ability to enrich uranium and potentially setting its nuclear ambitions back by months or years.
As well as killing key military figures and nuclear scientists, the Israeli strikes destroyed part of a plant that was enriching uranium to levels far beyond the requirements for nuclear-fueled power stations. The attacks also destroyed backup power for the underground section of the plant, potentially damaging more sensitive equipment.
Iran's nuclear program has progressed rapidly since 2018, when the U.S. withdrew from a deal to limit Tehran's capacity to enrich uranium, which is necessary to build a nuclear weapon. Iran maintains that its program is peaceful, but the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that the country has enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs if it chose to do so.
Nuclear regulators said the assault was unlikely to lead to increased levels of radiation, even at the site where part of the fuel-enrichment plant was destroyed.
Here's a closer look at the attack and its likely effects on Iran's nuclear efforts.
Israel killed top military figures and nuclear scientists and destroyed part of a key enrichment site. There is 'no question' it did substantial damage, said Fabian Hinz, an expert on Iran's nuclear program at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London.
David Albright, a nuclear weapons expert, speculated that the initial wave of attacks could set back any Iranian attempt to develop a nuclear weapon by about a year.
A key question, Hinz said, is whether Israel also targeted suppliers of specialist components such as centrifuges and subcontractors.
Israel's strategy appears to be to 'destroy the brains' behind the program and 'as much equipment as possible,' said Albright, who agreed that Israel has potentially done a 'tremendous amount of damage' to the program.
Israel is widely believed to be behind a series of attacks in recent years that targeted Iranian nuclear scientists and sabotaged nuclear facilities.
Hinz suggested a key Israeli goal was to undermine Iran's ability to make centrifuges, which are critical for enriching uranium. Uranium enrichment is a key component of building a nuclear weapon, but weapons also require detonators and a means of delivery, like missiles.
Iran has two uranium-enrichment sites, and the country said Wednesday that it has built and will activate a third enrichment facility.
On Thursday, Israel struck Iran's main and oldest facility in Natanz, 220 kilometers (135 miles) southeast of Tehran, which was protected by anti-aircraft batteries, fencing and Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.
The IAEA's chief, Rafael Grossi, told an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Friday that the above-ground part of the plant where uranium was enriched up to 60% was destroyed, along with electrical infrastructure, including a substation, the main electric power supply building, the emergency power supply and backup generators.
Grossi said there were no changes to radiation levels following the attack or any indication of damage to the underground section of the plant. That part of the facility is buried to protect it from airstrikes and contains the bulk of Natanz's enrichment facilities, with 10,000 centrifuges that enrich uranium up to 5%, Albright said. However, Grossi said, the loss of power may have damaged centrifuges.
There is a good chance the strikes still caused 'massive damage,' Hinz said because many of the centrifuges were probably operating at the time of the strike.
Centrifuges, Albright said, 'don't like vibration,' and the shock waves or loss of power could break delicate parts when they are rotating at high speed.
Most of Iran's centrifuges are in Natanz, the experts said, because a lot of them are required to enrich uranium to 5% — which is the maximum level normally used for nuclear-fueled power stations.
But, buried under a huge mountain at Fordo, around 100 kilometers (60 miles) southwest of Tehran, is another nuclear facility where Iran is also enriching uranium to 60%, which is only a short step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. According to the IAEA, Tehran has the largest number of its most powerful centrifuges at Fordo.
An Iranian news outlet close to the government reported Friday that two explosions were heard near the Fordo site. But, while Israel could potentially hit the entrance to Fordo and temporarily block access, it is not believed to have the type of earth-penetrating bombs required to blow up the mountain and crack open the nuclear facility inside, Hinz said.
That capacity lies with the U.S., which has developed a massive bomb that can be dropped only from large aircraft that Israel does not have in service, he said.
The potential for more strikes loomed large. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the attacks will continue 'for as many days at it takes to remove this threat.'
Hinz said the attacks showed Israeli intelligence had 'absolutely exceptional' knowledge of Iran's nuclear program and the ability to strike at key targets 'with precision.' That could mean Israel could sabotage the plant, rather than trying to blast the mountain open. Albright suggested Israel could try to cut off electricity to Fordo, which could lead to centrifuges breaking.
Although Grossi said part of the enrichment facility at Natanz was destroyed, he noted that radiation levels had not spiked.
Even if radiation did leak, experts said, the amount would be unlikely to pose a risk to people in the region or even those near the facilities that got hit.
'Very little uranium will be released in these kind of attacks,' Albright said.
Uranium itself is not especially toxic, he said, and is common in parts of the environment. A person standing near an enrichment facility with a leak would probably be exposed to no more radiation than someone who took several transatlantic flights, which receive slightly higher radiation because radiation doses are larger at high altitudes, he said.
In order to become sick, someone would have to ingest large quantities of uranium, Albright said, pointing out that the element can be found naturally in seawater and the earth's crust.
Rather than radiation, the greater risk might be from fluorine, which is used to enrich uranium and could have been deadly to those nearby if released during an attack.
Fluorine is mixed with the uranium during enrichment to turn it into a gas called uranium hexafluoride. It is extremely volatile, will quickly corrode and can burn the skin. It is especially deadly if inhaled.
___
The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation . The AP is solely responsible for all content.
___
Additional AP coverage of the nuclear landscape: https://apnews.com/projects/the-new-nuclear-landscape/
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CNN
24 minutes ago
- CNN
CNN Speaks to Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht- Ravanchi - Amanpour - Podcast on CNN Audio
CNN Speaks to Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht- Ravanchi Amanpour 42 mins First: Christiane's exclusive conversation with the Iranian deputy foreign minister on how it could respond to U.S. involvement and still holding out hope for nuclear negotiations once this war is over. Then: If regime change is also Israel's goal. Who is waiting in the wings to take over? Christiane speaks with former State Department adviser and Iran expert Vali Nasr. Also: From her archives, Christiane looks back at a moment of hope inside and outside Iran for a peaceful transition to freedom and stability. Dreams well and truly dashed in the intervening years. And: Film director Wes Anderson speaks with Christiane about his new film "The Phoenician Scheme," the inescapable signature style of all his movies, and hiring Kate Winslet's daughter. Finally: As Berlin pays tribute to the legendary artwork of wrapping the Reichstag by Christo and Jean-Claude this week, Christiane revisits her conversation with Christo and what he told her about the project and how his own history as a refugee informed his art and unstoppable drive.
CNN
29 minutes ago
- CNN
Negotiations are ‘meaningless' unless Israel stops attacks, Iran government spokesperson tells CNN
The prospect of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program is 'meaningless' unless Israel stops striking her country, Iran's government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told CNN Saturday at her office in northern Tehran. The streets were fairly quiet in the Iranian capital, usually a bustling metropolis of over 9 million people. Over the past few days, traffic has increased as more Iranians return to the city after fleeing Israel's bombing during earlier days of the conflict. Despite being the voice of a government exchanging blows with a nuclear power (and waiting on whether to expect fire from the United States), Mohajerani was relaxed. The first woman to serve as Iranian government spokesperson, she came into her role less than a year ago, appointed by President Masoud Pezeshkian last August. She noted that Iran has endured numerous cycles of negotiations about its nuclear activities, yet none have resulted in a sustained long-term deal. 'These past years we've been through a painful experience twice,' Mohajerani said, pointing to US President Donald Trump's unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA agreement in 2018. No matter how eager Trump might be to bring Iran to the negotiating table, Mohajerani said Iran does not want to be left empty-handed again. And before talks begin, Israel's bombing must stop, she said, emphasizing a point made by multiple Iranian officials in recent days. 'This time we were in the middle of negotiations again when this attack took place,' Mohajerani said. 'Therefore, as our officials have already stated, as long as there are attacks, negotiations will be meaningless. When the attacks stop, we will think about it.' Israel's initial, wide-ranging operation on June 13 killed some of the most powerful commanders in the Iranian military and damaged Iranian uranium enrichment sites. Since then, daily strikes have damaged its nuclear power plants, set its largest natural gas field aflame and obliterated the newsroom of one of the country's state-run media channels. Still, Mohajerani insists that Iran is ready for whatever the Israelis throw at them next. 'Both the government and the nation of Iran are totally robust in defense,' she said. 'Our military force is completely ready to prevent such attacks from happening again, and in case the need arises to practice legitimate defense.' So far, at least 430 civilians in Iran have been killed in the strikes, and thousands of others wounded, according to the Iranian government. At a hospital in Tehran, one woman named Nisrine told CNN that she 'barely made it to the door' after being injured in an Israeli strike. One of her neighbors called emergency services, who brought her to a hospital. 'I've had five operations,' she said from her hospital bed. 'In my abdomen area, my kidney, my liver.' Iran's missile-and-UAV-driven response, meanwhile, has killed 24 in Israel, wounding over 1,200 others, according to figures from the Israeli government. Iranian missiles have struck deep within Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities, with one missile hitting a hospital. At the heart of the conflict is the future of Iran's nuclear program. Israel and the United States have long accused Iran of working towards a nuclear bomb. Speaking with CNN, Mohajerani repeated what Iranian officials have maintained for years: that Iran's nuclear enrichment program is not for weapons-making, but rather for energy production. 'Nuclear energy does not mean war to us,' Mohajerani said. 'It means life to us. Therefore, since the subject of enrichment and the subject of life are the same path to us, not leading to war, we believe enrichment is our right.' Nonetheless, Israeli officials have cast their bombing campaign in existential terms, going so far as to say that Iran's nuclear program poses a threat to the entire planet. 'We act to prevent a huge threat—primarily to the existence of Israel, but also to the entire region, Europe, and the world order,' declared Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar at the site of an Iranian missile strike in Rishon Lezion. It remains unclear whether Washington will join the fray. Trump has said he will decide whether to intervene within the next two weeks, but has already joined Israeli officials in publicly pondering the benefits of assassinating Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding,' Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on June 17. 'He is an easy target but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.' Mohajerani was blunt when asked about the possibility that Israel or the US might take direct aim at her country's head of state. 'This shows that Israel does not understand the unity of the Iranian people,' Mohajerani said. 'Israel better not do something for which it can't pay the damage. The Iranian people are backing their leader.' 'We should not forget that for all of us Iranians today, Iran is a united concept, which we will certainly defend.'
Bloomberg
33 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Trump's Twists and Turns Over Iran Leave Oil Traders Hanging
The oil market is wrestling with Donald Trump's next act in the conflict between Iran and Israel, with the US president's every utterance over the fighting seemingly capable of spiking or crashing prices. In a wild week, Brent futures have surged 11% from before Israel attacked its nemesis, but with sharp moves up and down from one day to the next.
