Latest news with #Clausewitz
Indian Express
4 days ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
Israel, Palestine, Iran, Pakistan: When war becomes content, critical discourse is the casualty
Odds are that in the past few weeks you have, at some point, come across the words: Fog of war. You may have tripped over them while taking a stroll in your digital backyard. A talking head on a TV news channel may have yelled the phrase at you. Or, they may have been dropped at a dinner party by someone sipping their wine and simping for war. Typically traced back to Carl von Clausewitz, a 19th century Prussian general, the phrase alludes to the fact that war is influenced, in large part, by factors that are 'wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty'. In its original avatar, the term was formulated to explain the challenges faced by military actors and the ambiguity of information available to those present in the battlefield. Clausewitz narrowly missed the social media revolution, of course. But if he were alive today, he would have been alarmed to see how far beyond the battlefield the 'fog of war' can now spread — pervading phone and TV screens to cloud the minds of entire citizenries. In recent years, war reportage has become a mainstay in news headlines. Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, Israel-Iran, and, of course, our own showdown with our belligerent neighbours last month. These instances, by no means, form an exhaustive list — but even accounting for the biases that spotlight some conflicts while leaving others in the shadows, fresh updates about lives lost and people displaced never seem to cease. And for the most part, these updates reach us via social media. Navigating the terabytes of data on social media is fraught with risk in the best of times. For every innocuous cat video, you are also served up deep fakes and disinformation. The online newsflash — both the fact and the fiction — is designed to be easy to believe and difficult to verify. So it is no surprise that experiencing an armed conflict through the lens of social media can prove to be problematic. First, there is the craving for instantaneous updates. Technology has whittled our patience down to the bone. We binge-watch TV shows, never allowing cliffhangers to torment us for more than a few minutes. Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts have to grip us within seconds before we dismiss them with a swipe of our thumbs. Naturally, we expect war coverage to also adhere to this schedule of immediacy. The morning's headlines become stale by noon, and we yearn for the next piece of breaking news — a cycle that results in the second problem: Shallow engagement. A two-minute video offering a 'complete breakdown' of trending news is hard to ignore. In a deluge of information, they offer a convenient shortcut to help us stay abreast of the latest developments. But they come at the cost of depth and nuance. Experts on Instagram may be a whizz at making 20-word summaries of international relations, but an analysis of the historical and political context of any conflict can never fit into a carousel post. Unfortunately, when a conveyor belt of bite-sized updates keeps us hooked, we have neither the time nor the inclination to deepen our understanding of the world. This absence of a well-rounded perspective is exacerbated by the architecture of social media. The content we see is tailored to our tastes, preferences, and socio-economic profile. Our timelines are echo chambers, they tell us what we want to hear and filter out all that we find bothersome. This is the third drawback of making social media our primary source of news: We can only ever see parts of the whole, like the moon waning or waxing but never full. When we block content that is objectionable to us or 'like' threads that align with our views, the algorithm takes diligent notes. It is vigilant in ensuring that contrarian opinions do not make it to our feed. Critical discourse becomes a casualty, and we are offered a narrative we are most likely to accept. When we see content that resonates with us, we are emboldened to choose a side and add our own voice to the chorus — which, in turn, leads us to the fourth pitfall: Performative online behaviour. We have put our lives on display to the natives of the internet. Meals, holidays, and even mundane minutiae — everything makes its way to our digital diaries. We are careful to present our best version to our followers, and so we have an obligation to perform our moral outrage for their benefit. On Independence Day, we demonstrate our patriotism with status updates containing a liberal sprinkling of the tricolour and a track of the national anthem. When Gaza is obliterated, we sandwich an 'Eyes on Gaza' story between snaps from our anniversary dinner. And when we hear of countries supplying drones to our opponents, we cancel our vacations to proclaim our loyalty. After all, righteous rage is impotent without an audience. None of this is to say we must shun social media. Along with its ills, it has many virtues: Not least being a platform that gives space to voices outside the mainstream. It can help form communities and spread ideas. As with all powerful tools, however, we must exercise caution in the ways we use it. We must be wary of the hold social media has over us, the ways in which it can shape our thinking, particularly in times of strife. It will always serve up gaudy baubles that are intended to captivate us. The trick is in knowing when to look away. The writer is a Mumbai-based lawyer
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Korea Herald
04-06-2025
- Business
- Korea Herald
[Contribution] KCS steps up to navigate ‘fog of war' in global tariffs
Carl von Clausewitz, the German military theorist, introduced the concept of the "Fog of War" in his seminal work "On War." He described war as a realm of unpredictable uncertainty, where quick and accurate judgment by commanders is crucial amid incomplete information and unforeseen variables. Today, the rapidly shifting US tariff policies and the responses from major economies have created a global trade environment reminiscent of Clausewitz's fog-covered battlefield. In a global economy where visibility is limited and uncertainty prevails, Korean businesses must work to reduce unpredictability while strengthening their strategic decision-making and judgment capabilities. In this context, a clear understanding of tariff classification and rules of origin becomes a crucial first step in navigating the uncertainty sparked by President Trump's tariff policies. Tariff classification is the process of assigning serial numbers to imported and exported goods based on standards set by the World Customs Organization (WCO). These numbers not only determine applicable tariff rates but also dictate various import and export requirements. While WCO provides a unified framework, individual countries often interpret and apply these standards differently. As a result, the same product can be assigned different codes in different countries. Since March, the US has imposed a 25 percent tariff on certain items, including steel and aluminum derivatives. The challenge arises because the US applies these tariffs using its own classification system, the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS). For Korean companies accustomed to Korea's classification system, determining whether their products fall under US tariff targets is not always clear-cut. As tariff differences grow sharper depending on product classification, businesses now face greater pressure to ensure accurate and strategic classification of their goods. The importance of rules of origin has also risen significantly under the evolving US tariff regime. Under the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement, product origin has traditionally been determined using rules such as the change in tariff classification criterion or value content criterion. However, recent US measures have shifted this to the Substantial Transformation Criterion, even for items subject to bilateral tariffs, regardless of FTA rules. Under this standard, US customs authorities determine origin based on whether a product has undergone substantial changes in name, use, or character. The lack of clear, consistent case rulings makes it extremely difficult for businesses to predict outcomes. Moreover, Korean companies may suffer indirect harm — such as customs delays or post-entry verifications — if products from other countries with higher tariff rates are fraudulently labeled as Korean to evade duties. In response to such uncertainty, the Korea Customs Service established the KCS Response Headquarters for Global Tariff Changes and Domestic Industry Protection (K-GTR H.Q.s) on March 28. This task force goes beyond simply providing information. It functions as a comprehensive, proactive unit managing international cooperation, preemptive customs and tax risk assessments, close business support, and crackdowns on illegal circumvention of trade laws. Since its launch, the K-GTR H.Q.s has prioritized resolving uncertainties surrounding tariff classifications and rules of origin while supporting corporate decision-making. It has swiftly distributed correlation charts between Korean and US tariff codes for key items such as steel, aluminum derivatives, automobiles, and auto parts. To further ease classification-related confusion, it introduced fast-track pre-ruling procedures and expanded consultation services with the US tariff classification center. In the area of origin rules, the headquarters has begun immediate information sharing on non-preferential rules of origin and case rulings that can assist business planning. Customized consulting and preventive inspections are also underway to help firms comply. To prevent Korean exports from being harmed by falsely labeled foreign goods, the Korea Customs Service is intensifying inspections — particularly in cooperation with US Customs and Border Protection and industry associations — on critical sectors like steel and furniture, which are vulnerable to origin fraud. Looking ahead, the Korea Customs Service aims to continue serving as a reliable guide for Korean exporters amid the turbulent waves of global tariff conflicts. It plans to provide ongoing classification information for US-targeted sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and to roll out notification services for potential violations of origin rules, particularly for companies handling steel and aluminum derivative products. Waiting for the fog to lift will not lead to a path forward. Someone must carry the light and lead the way. The Korea Customs Service pledges to be that light, helping Korean businesses move forward with confidence, even through the haze of uncertainty.
Time of India
21-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Putin trolling Trump?
US president's attempted reset of peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv either failed or was just a show. From Russian leader's comments after Monday's chat, it's clear only a military defeat can stop him In the early 19th century, one of the founding fathers of modern war studies, German General and military historian Carl von Clausewitz commented, on the Napoleonic Wars, that '[t]he conqueror is always peace-loving […]; he would much prefer to march into our state silently […].' This has been and remains an observation that applies to most military aggressions. Though simple and understandable, Clausewitz's idea was initially ignored by most Europeans when interpreting Moscow's behaviour after the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2014. Read full story on TOI+ Facebook Twitter Linkedin Email Disclaimer Views expressed above are the author's own.
Express Tribune
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
The road ahead
Listen to article The military, especially the air force, made the nation proud. But what is done, is in the past, however stellar it was. Today and tomorrow is another day with its own set of challenges. Now is the time to know and be ready for what is possible, what beckons and what must take our wholesome attention. To celebrate, to learn, to dissect and analyse will be in the weeks ahead. I promise my readers I will return to those in due course. But what stares in our face is immediate and must consume our absolute attention even as the armed forces of Pakistan continue to keep a keen watch over an enemy smartening from his losses and a bloody nose that it got from the valiant armed forces of Pakistan and its absolutely amazing people who went out in throngs on streets to defeat what the enemy had intended to suppress and subdue. It helps to remind what militaries do: "war is a continuation of politics by other means" — Clausewitz. What it translates into is that when the military instrument is applied it must create 'space' for politics to pursue its aims using the space opened through application of military force. We must differentiate between wars too: there are wars of annihilation as was mostly the case in the medieval era, as well as till WWII when nations were either demolished or recreated out of ashes but to destroy them to ruin was what signaled the end. Not so in the modern era when the space for war with the kind which is prevalent is greatly restricted — Russia despite being a nuclear power cannot seem to end what it began in Ukraine, a country of little military means. It is also because of the world we live in. When one nation goes down it disrupts and demolishes the entire construct of markets and supply chains which have tied the world into a coexistent entity — a safety against annihilation. Even hate, contempt and venom must have limits. Clausewitz thus retains his credence. The skirmish with India has opened the space for politics to bring back the issues that plague Pakistan's progress and development into international spotlight. What had been reduced to bilateral whims of India after Simla has found renewed relevance around the world and in the Security Council at the UN. It is up to Pakistan now to benefit from this opportunity. Balochistan continues to suffer from a foreign-based, foreign engineered, and a foreign financed campaign against the state of Pakistan and its unity. The Jaffar Express incident is too recent to forget. India is the foreign master perpetuating this insurgency as borne by the two apprehended Indian agents in Balochistan — one a serving Naval Commander of the Indian intelligence in Pakistan's custody. Indian leadership has publicly claimed its role in fomenting trouble for Pakistan in Balochistan. Similarly, Indian hand in encouraging terrorist activities by the TTP — a proscribed terrorist group based in Afghanistan - against the people and the state of Pakistan continues to consume our precious resource and focus. They instigate, encourage and finance terror in Pakistan. This must come up as Pakistan's imperative concern when we sit down to talk with India following the ceasefire. We want guarantees and assurances that such a heinous resort of a neighbour will be promptly dispensed with. Wild allegations by India on inverse charges of terrorism in made-to-order enactments in Kashmir and elsewhere against Pakistan will not wash without substantive proof and fair investigation. We just came out of a war costing precious lives and losses in billions of dollars even as Indian government posts flyers with handsome remuneration to anyone who can provide information about the incident or the possible attackers. The irony is not lost. India unilaterally suspended the Indus Water Treaty which was brokered by the World Bank which per its statutes cannot be suspended, held in abeyance, or abrogated by any one side. It is the lifeline of Pakistan and an 'act of war' if Pakistan's right to the three western rivers and its waters is in any way impeded, redirected or tampered with. This will need to be reinstated in its original jurisdiction without exception to any of its clauses and contents for any other negotiation to begin, even before the two sides agree to meet. Any provision of the Treaty that Indian wants reopened for discussion can only be undertaken when the Treaty is in place status-quo ante. Pakistan too may like to renew considerations of its share in the three eastern rivers considering changes in water availability, population explosion and threats of food insecurity in areas originally fed by these three rivers. Similarly, the free flow of rivers in areas currently occupied by India in Jammu and Kashmir will need to be ensured in renewed commitment and verifiable processes. If Indian-Occupied Kashmir reeks of unease and disquiet despite the presence of over 700,000 military and paramilitary personnel, there must be a more founding and sustaining cause at its root. The disputed status of the region since 1948 and the unactioned UNSC Resolutions that detail the need to honour and respect the right of the Kashmiris to determine their future through a plebiscite explain why the people of Kashmir remain alienated and dispossessed. That a fight for freedom by those oppressed by a forced occupation is enshrined as a right in the UN Charter. That it turns ugly on occasions is inherent in long struggles for freedom. To India it is terrorism; to the Kashmiris, their fight for freedom from forced occupation; to Pakistan it is a legacy issue used by an odious neighbour to label Pakistan for India's own failure to give Kashmiris their right to self-determination. Kashmir needs urgent international attention to resolve the dispute per UN Resolutions and the aspirations of the people of Kashmir. Kashmir is critical to peace in this region and a nuclear flashpoint between India and Pakistan as has evinced in this and every conflict; except this time, it came much closer to nuclear blows. The unstable environment and the ensuing militancy, the water dispute, and the persisting conflict between two nuclear neighbours has its roots in one source — Kashmir. If the world can resolve Kashmir — because India would not do so on its own - we can gift peace to this entire region and hope and promise to its two billion people. The US has offered to help find this noble end; may she stay the course. Pakistan displayed remarkable capability as a nation to face off India's aggression. Its armed forces reinforced the conventional deterrence in no uncertain way. Perhaps India will learn its lesson. At its core though is strategic deterrence through Pakistan's nuclear weapons. It is imperative that this foundation is stoutly preserved against any inducement in the name of safety and security through alternate mechanisms of any kind. Pakistan cannot be divested of physical possession and instant access to its nuclear weapons.
Express Tribune
11-05-2025
- Politics
- Express Tribune
AI and the changing character of warfare
Listen to article The nature of war — defined by violence, chance and rationality — remains constant while the character of war — influenced by geopolitics, geo-economics, societal norms and technology — is prone to constant change. Over the decades, despite experiencing several Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMA) — marked by the invention of gunpowder, tanks, aircraft, and nuclear weapons — the phenomena described by the famous Prussian strategist Clausewitz remain relevant. In particular, modern conflicts are witnessing a revolutionary transformation in the nature of warfare, driven by the development and deployment of AI-based weapon systems. Advancements in the field of AI has enabled the introduction of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) that have the ability to autonomously scan, identify, lock and destroy as well as carry out battle damage assessment over a range of airborne, seaborne and ground based targets with remarkable accuracy. AI-based systems are impacting various domains and influencing decision-making processes at different levels. However, this autonomy often leads to unacceptable collateral damage, posing challenges not only to the desired level of human control but also raising serious concerns about the extent of decision-making autonomy granted to machines. More and more countries and military industrial complexes worldwide are spending billions of dollars and dedicating resources to surpass others in the pursuit of AI-enabled command and control systems. In 2017, the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs carried out a study to identify a growing trend amongst number of countries to pursue and develop the use of autonomous weapon systems. According to the report, the ever-growing trend inherited a real risk of uncontrollable war. Similarly, a study on AI and Urban Operations conducted by the University of South Florida concluded that "the armed forces may soon be able to monitor, strike and kill their opponents and even civilians as will." Ruthless and lethal use of AI-driven targeting system was exemplified by IDF in Gaza. In December 2023, The Guardian revealed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) used an AI-based targeting system called Hesbora (Gospel) to target more than 100 targets in a single day. According to Aviv Kochavi, the former head of IDF, a human intelligence-based system could only identify up to 50 targets in an entire year. Chief Executive of Israeli Tech firm 'Start up Nation Central' Mr Avi Hasson stated that the "war in Gaza has provided an opportunity for the IDF to test emerging technologies which had never been used in past conflicts." Consequently, IDF destroyed more than 360,000 buildings, indiscriminately killed over 50,000 and injured over 113,500 Palestinians, most of whom were innocent women and children. Ironically, indiscriminate killing of non-combatants is forbidden in the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949. Interestingly, technologically advanced, militarily strong, and economically wealthy countries worldwide are investing heavily in the development or acquisition of AI-based weapon systems. The AI in the Military Global Market Report 2024 projected a 16.6% growth in the global military market for 2024, reflecting a global race to dominate AI-driven military technology. In its New General AI Plan, China declared that "AI is a strategic technology that will lead the future" and aims to be the world leader in AI by 2030. Similarly, the US has adopted the "Third Offset Strategy" to invest heavily in AI, autonomous weapons, and robotics, vowing to maintain its technological edge. In February 2023, Asia Times reported that the US Department of Defense launched the Autonomous Multi-Domain Adaptive Swarm of Systems project, aimed at developing autonomous drone swarms to overwhelm enemy air defense systems across air, land and sea. In June 2022, Indian Ministry of Defence organised the 'AI in Defence' (AIDef) symposium and introduced 75 AI-based platforms. Indian author and strategist Mr Pravin Sawhney, in his book The Last War, published in August 2022, has amplified the decisive role of AI and AI-based autonomous weapons and swam drones in a projected armed conflict between China and India. In the same context, Pakistan has also launched the Centre for AI and Computing (CENTAIC) under the auspices of Pakistan Air Force to spearhead AI development and AI-based integration of various air, land and sea weapon systems into operational and strategic domains. In the South Asian context, given the long-standing enmity under the nuclear overhang, the introduction of AI based LAWS and their unhesitating use could have serious repercussions on the security architecture. In the same context, absence of a comprehensive and regulatory legal framework coupled with non-existence of state monopoly further complicates the security situation. To gauge the destructive and dangerous nature of AI-driven command and control systems, a group of researchers from four US universities simulated a war scenario in January 2024, using five different AI programs, including OpenAI and Meta's Llama. The results were shocking for both scientists and advocates of AI-based LAWS. The study's findings revealed that all simulated models selected nuclear weapons as their first choice of weapon over other options, including diplomatic or peace initiatives, when confronting adversaries. The widespread availability of AI technology, coupled with the absence of global or state-level regulations and monopolies, makes it vulnerable to exploitation by non-state actors. This situation calls for the initiation of collective action and the implementation of a stringent regulatory framework at both the global and national levels. Concerted global efforts are needed to legally and ethically advance AI-driven initiatives. Recognising the significance and urgency of this issue, UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasised in his address during the 2023 New Agenda for Peace policy briefing that "there is a necessity to conclude a legally binding instrument to prohibit the development and deployment of autonomous weapon systems by 2026."
