The road ahead

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The military, especially the air force, made the nation proud. But what is done, is in the past, however stellar it was. Today and tomorrow is another day with its own set of challenges. Now is the time to know and be ready for what is possible, what beckons and what must take our wholesome attention.
To celebrate, to learn, to dissect and analyse will be in the weeks ahead. I promise my readers I will return to those in due course. But what stares in our face is immediate and must consume our absolute attention even as the armed forces of Pakistan continue to keep a keen watch over an enemy smartening from his losses and a bloody nose that it got from the valiant armed forces of Pakistan and its absolutely amazing people who went out in throngs on streets to defeat what the enemy had intended to suppress and subdue.
It helps to remind what militaries do: "war is a continuation of politics by other means" — Clausewitz. What it translates into is that when the military instrument is applied it must create 'space' for politics to pursue its aims using the space opened through application of military force.
We must differentiate between wars too: there are wars of annihilation as was mostly the case in the medieval era, as well as till WWII when nations were either demolished or recreated out of ashes but to destroy them to ruin was what signaled the end. Not so in the modern era when the space for war with the kind which is prevalent is greatly restricted — Russia despite being a nuclear power cannot seem to end what it began in Ukraine, a country of little military means. It is also because of the world we live in.
When one nation goes down it disrupts and demolishes the entire construct of markets and supply chains which have tied the world into a coexistent entity — a safety against annihilation. Even hate, contempt and venom must have limits. Clausewitz thus retains his credence.
The skirmish with India has opened the space for politics to bring back the issues that plague Pakistan's progress and development into international spotlight. What had been reduced to bilateral whims of India after Simla has found renewed relevance around the world and in the Security Council at the UN. It is up to Pakistan now to benefit from this opportunity. Balochistan continues to suffer from a foreign-based, foreign engineered, and a foreign financed campaign against the state of Pakistan and its unity.
The Jaffar Express incident is too recent to forget. India is the foreign master perpetuating this insurgency as borne by the two apprehended Indian agents in Balochistan — one a serving Naval Commander of the Indian intelligence in Pakistan's custody. Indian leadership has publicly claimed its role in fomenting trouble for Pakistan in Balochistan.
Similarly, Indian hand in encouraging terrorist activities by the TTP — a proscribed terrorist group based in Afghanistan - against the people and the state of Pakistan continues to consume our precious resource and focus. They instigate, encourage and finance terror in Pakistan.
This must come up as Pakistan's imperative concern when we sit down to talk with India following the ceasefire. We want guarantees and assurances that such a heinous resort of a neighbour will be promptly dispensed with. Wild allegations by India on inverse charges of terrorism in made-to-order enactments in Kashmir and elsewhere against Pakistan will not wash without substantive proof and fair investigation.
We just came out of a war costing precious lives and losses in billions of dollars even as Indian government posts flyers with handsome remuneration to anyone who can provide information about the incident or the possible attackers. The irony is not lost.
India unilaterally suspended the Indus Water Treaty which was brokered by the World Bank which per its statutes cannot be suspended, held in abeyance, or abrogated by any one side. It is the lifeline of Pakistan and an 'act of war' if Pakistan's right to the three western rivers and its waters is in any way impeded, redirected or tampered with.
This will need to be reinstated in its original jurisdiction without exception to any of its clauses and contents for any other negotiation to begin, even before the two sides agree to meet. Any provision of the Treaty that Indian wants reopened for discussion can only be undertaken when the Treaty is in place status-quo ante.
Pakistan too may like to renew considerations of its share in the three eastern rivers considering changes in water availability, population explosion and threats of food insecurity in areas originally fed by these three rivers. Similarly, the free flow of rivers in areas currently occupied by India in Jammu and Kashmir will need to be ensured in renewed commitment and verifiable processes.
If Indian-Occupied Kashmir reeks of unease and disquiet despite the presence of over 700,000 military and paramilitary personnel, there must be a more founding and sustaining cause at its root. The disputed status of the region since 1948 and the unactioned UNSC Resolutions that detail the need to honour and respect the right of the Kashmiris to determine their future through a plebiscite explain why the people of Kashmir remain alienated and dispossessed.
That a fight for freedom by those oppressed by a forced occupation is enshrined as a right in the UN Charter. That it turns ugly on occasions is inherent in long struggles for freedom.
To India it is terrorism; to the Kashmiris, their fight for freedom from forced occupation; to Pakistan it is a legacy issue used by an odious neighbour to label Pakistan for India's own failure to give Kashmiris their right to self-determination.
Kashmir needs urgent international attention to resolve the dispute per UN Resolutions and the aspirations of the people of Kashmir. Kashmir is critical to peace in this region and a nuclear flashpoint between India and Pakistan as has evinced in this and every conflict; except this time, it came much closer to nuclear blows.
The unstable environment and the ensuing militancy, the water dispute, and the persisting conflict between two nuclear neighbours has its roots in one source — Kashmir. If the world can resolve Kashmir — because India would not do so on its own - we can gift peace to this entire region and hope and promise to its two billion people. The US has offered to help find this noble end; may she stay the course.
Pakistan displayed remarkable capability as a nation to face off India's aggression. Its armed forces reinforced the conventional deterrence in no uncertain way. Perhaps India will learn its lesson. At its core though is strategic deterrence through Pakistan's nuclear weapons.
It is imperative that this foundation is stoutly preserved against any inducement in the name of safety and security through alternate mechanisms of any kind. Pakistan cannot be divested of physical possession and instant access to its nuclear weapons.

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