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Reeves has already done irreversible damage to Britain
Reeves has already done irreversible damage to Britain

Telegraph

time3 hours ago

  • Business
  • Telegraph

Reeves has already done irreversible damage to Britain

Less than a year after taking office, Rachel Reeves already looks to have inflicted irreparable damage on Britain's economy. Last autumn's budget saw the largest fiscal loosening of any event outside of July 2020 since the Office for Budget Responsibility's foundation, with a spending increase of almost £70bn enabled by £36bn in tax raids and a tweak to definitions of government debt. This had three easily foreseeable effects. The first was that the choice to raise taxes through employers' National Insurance, and therefore directly on payrolls, rather than slower-adjusting wages and prices, contributed to a sharp contraction in the labour market that a rise in public sector spending does not appear to have fully offset. The number of payrolled employees dropped by 274,000 between May 2024 and May 2025, with April's fall of 109,000 the steepest monthly decline since the pandemic. While some employers are laying staff off, others are cutting back on plans to hire, and the result is that there were 150,000 fewer vacancies in the latest quarter of data than a year before. The second predictable consequence was that a massive expansion in government borrowing would make future tax rises more likely. Gilt yields have risen, and with the 30-year now near its post-1998 peak, investors are displaying concern over the scale of the borrowing over the coming years of this Parliament. Growth forecasts, meanwhile, have fallen. The result is that the Chancellor has a razor-thin buffer against her fiscal rules and may well be required to cut spending or raise taxes in the autumn. And this brings us neatly to the third consequence of Reeves's Budget: people who can see where this is going, or are already in line to feel the pain, are getting out while they can. You or I might have viewed it as an obvious consequence; taxes specifically targeting some of the most internationally mobile groups in your country have at least one clear route through which they might spectacularly backfire. Regrettably, however, the exodus of millionaires from Britain reported by advisers over the last year still seems to have caught Rachel Reeves by surprise, and in the process created a new problem. Britain's welfare state rests to a great degree upon a narrow pillar of high-income taxpayers, with the top 1pc of earners accounting for 29pc of the income tax take. Now consider which groups Labour's taxes targeted: those with assets, by raising capital gains. Those who wished to provide for their children, by expanding the scope of inheritance tax and levying VAT on private school fees. And those who are in the country temporarily, by scrapping non-dom status in favour of a four-year residence-based status, with brutal inheritance tax provisions coming into force after that period. Small wonder that the wealthy seem to be fleeing Britain. Small wonder, too, that Reeves appears to be considering an about-turn on part of her non-doms tax raid. But having killed the goose that laid the golden egg, resuscitating it may prove rather more of a challenge. A partial reversion to the status quo ante might staunch the bleeding and prevent further departures, but it's far from clear that it will lure back those who've already left – particularly given that pressing need to raise taxes again over this Parliament, and Labour's clear preference for doing so by taxing the rich first. This would create a real headache for the Chancellor. The strategy of 'taxing the rich' already had limited room left to run. Robert Chote, the former OBR chairman, remarked a decade ago that the minimal impact of the decision to cut the rate from 50p to 45p had shown we were very likely 'strolling across the summit of the Laffer curve '. A smaller tax base of wealthy people would mean attempts to shift the cost of Labour's spending on to that group would mean much higher increases in individual tax burdens – likely triggering a renewed exodus. In other words, the money is going to have to come from somewhere else. In the last year or so, French users of the social media site X came up with the delightful meme of 'Nicolas, 30 ans' – the 30 year old graduate working in a good job, who finds their salary drained by taxes that pay for public spending on other people; benefits for the unemployed, pensions for the retired, aid for the third world, and so on. 'Nicolas' hasn't had a much better time of it in Britain. The vast majority of the rise in government spending since 2019 has gone on items that the young and employed have relatively little use for – interest on the debts accrued by previous generations, welfare, the NHS – while the tax burden has risen to a post-war high. Regrettably, Nicholas might also be Rachel Reeves's best target. Compare data on the tax 'wedge' for a single worker on average wage with government spending as a share of GDP, and you'll replicate Dan Neidle's finding that no OECD country spending as much as Britain does so with a tax burden for the average worker as low as ours. If we aren't willing to cut spending to emulate the likes of the USA, Australia and Switzerland, then we will likely raise taxes to match countries like France. And Labour has no visible intention of cutting spending. While Reeves might have failed to predict the obvious consequences of her policies, it's not hard to see where she might go from here. The Labour Party is winning its war on private wealth. Now, average earners will pay the price.

PHIL BRICKELL: 'Spending review will bring real improvements to our area'
PHIL BRICKELL: 'Spending review will bring real improvements to our area'

Yahoo

time5 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

PHIL BRICKELL: 'Spending review will bring real improvements to our area'

As the MP for Bolton West, I'm pleased that the government's 2025 Spending Review will bring real improvements for our area. Its plans will deliver the growth we need to make everyday life better for families and businesses across Blackrod, Bolton, Horwich and Westhoughton. First, with more money for the NHS and our schools. The Chancellor has increased NHS funding by three per cent and committed to the biggest ever investment in NHS building repairs. Having already made significant progress in reducing NHS waiting times, this further investment will help even more in ensuring we all get the swift, good quality care we deserve. Education also sees a major boost, with an extra £2billion in funding. Here in Bolton West, Devonshire Road Primary School has already received support to run a breakfast club, helping children start their day well-fed and ready to learn. And, from 2026, more children will also get free school meals, giving extra help to many local families struggling with the weekly cost of living. Second, with landmark support for more genuinely affordable and warmer houses. The government is investing a blockbuster £39 billion to build 1.5 million new homes across the country, allowing my constituents the opportunity to fulfil their ambition for a secure roof over their heads at a genuinely affordable price. And, after 14 years of neglect by the last government, Greater Manchester will get £73.6 million to improve social housing, making homes more energy-efficient, cutting heating bills and helping the environment. Third, with investment in better transport infrastructure. Good transport links are vital for work, school, and leisure. Greater Manchester will receive an additional £2.5 billion to improve public transport, including bringing rail under the Bee Network and adding 1,000 new electric buses by 2030. Far too much time is currently lost stuck in traffic or waiting on platforms for delayed trains – a frustration I myself feel only too keenly on the way to my office in Horwich. Delays not only impact our collective wellbeing, they also hold us back in terms of our economic productivity. The spending review gets us back on track. Fourth, by ensuring we're stronger both at home and abroad. The Chancellor pledged funding to end the use of hotels as accommodation for those seeking asylum, which spiralled out of control under the Conservatives. Securing our borders and creating a fairer immigration system are key initiatives and I'll continue to work to deliver this. And, as well as securing our borders at home, the further investment in our armed forces will support well-paid, new jobs including at the MBDA site at Logistics North. Finally, by boosting jobs through new trade deals. The government has also secured important new trade deals with India, the United States, and the European Union. These deals cut costs and help industries across the North West, such as car manufacturing and steel production, as well as local firms involved in their supply chains. They'll also secure lower prices for consumers, relying on goods coming from those countries – a win-win for British workers and customers. The 2025 Spending Review is good news and it sets the course for a brighter future. Upon my election, I promised the people of Bolton West that I would deliver a stronger NHS, tackle the cost of living and secure our borders. I'm confident this spending review ensures the government will deliver on those promises. And, as your MP, I'll keep working hard to make sure these benefits reach everyone across our towns.

‘I'm a millionaire fleeing Britain – a Reeves U-turn would stop me leaving'
‘I'm a millionaire fleeing Britain – a Reeves U-turn would stop me leaving'

Yahoo

time13 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

‘I'm a millionaire fleeing Britain – a Reeves U-turn would stop me leaving'

I have a spreadsheet open in front of me on my computer, detailing the exact number of days I have left to stay in the UK this tax year. The reason? Labour's changes to non-doms inheritance tax rules. The changes are so costly that they have forced me to reconsider where I live. When my days in the UK run out, I will not spend time in some tax haven; I'll just go back home to South Africa and work out the next steps. If Rachel Reeves reverses the inheritance tax change for non-doms, I would unequivocally stay and grow my venture capital business in the UK. I know so many other millionaires in my situation. Many have left but still have properties here and have not yet completely settled in their new homes. Half of these people would rush back if the rules around paying inheritance tax on worldwide assets changed, because we are all upset to leave and feel forced. But the Chancellor must act quickly before it is too late. I want to keep investing in growth companies like I did with quantum computing start-up Oxford Ionics, which last week sold for $1.1bn (£820m) to a US firm. But after raising £500m to invest in Britain's most exciting start-ups since I arrived here in 2019, my future investment will now be elsewhere. This money will likely help grow companies in mainland Europe instead. It is a shame, as Oxford and Cambridge are where the most exciting cutting-edge projects are happening. But I am sadly certainly not going to bring any more money to the UK if I cannot stay. I know people will say: 'It's just inheritance tax. What does it matter if you are dead?' My businesses are my life's work. I want them to secure my sons' futures. I grew up with very little, fleeing communist Poland as a child refugee with my parents and two siblings when the country started running out of food in the early 1980s. The only way to get out was to flee with fake papers. We spent the whole of 1981 in a migrant camp in Austria, where my parents applied to countries accepting refugees. We ended up in South Africa without knowing anything about the country or the apartheid regime. We didn't speak English and had $500 to our name. In the next years, we were just about surviving. I studied actuarial science at university because that was the only way to get a bursary, and we had no money for schooling. After working for a couple of insurance companies, I realised I'm not diplomatic enough to be a corporate employee. So I ended up in the world of start-ups and decided to start my own company. I gambled everything on it, putting my house up as collateral. It is today one of South Africa's large financial services groups. I came to the UK for security reasons in 2019, after speaking out against corruption in Jacob Zuma's government and being left fearing for my life. London has become my home. I had hoped to live here for the rest of my life. Being forced to leave for reasons outside my control feels much like grief. The impact goes beyond just my own personal circumstances. I have had to let 12 casual household staff go – gardeners, cleaners, builders. While I still have a venture capital firm, Braavos, in Britain, I will not hire anyone new here. Over time, I may have to think about relocating it. I put my flat in Kensington on the market five months ago, but because so many like me are leaving there are hardly any buyers. I'm considering putting my house that I love up for sale too, but for now I am holding out for a miracle. If there is none, I will be forced to go once my 90 days in Britain this tax year are up. I'm leaving on the strong advice of my tax advisers, as the new rules around inheritance are unworkable for me. For one, South Africa has foreign exchange controls. That means if I were to die under current rules, South Africa may refuse to release the funds to settle a huge inheritance tax bill in Britain. Even ignoring the difficulty of getting the money out, my wealth is mainly held in the form of shares in the financial services company Sygnia, which I founded and built in South Africa. My sons would be forced to sell those shares quickly. If you want to sell anything fast, you'll have to do so with a big discount, which would devalue the company. How can this be good for the economy? If Reeves changes her mind, I would immediately cancel my plans to leave. I could rehire all of my household staff, take my property off the market and focus on raising funds for another investment fund to boost British growth companies. My message to the Chancellor is this: you came into power to fix the economy, so don't destroy growth by putting politics before economics. As told to Eir Nolsøe Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.

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