Latest news with #Carmignac
Time of India
10 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Trumponomics: How US president Donald Trump has triggered a financial roller coaster; shaken global markets in 5 months
Ever since US President Donald Trump took office, five months ago, his economic policies have unleashed widespread volatility across global financial markets, triggering investor pullback, a weakening dollar, and a sharp divergence in global stock performance. Here is a look at the financial roller-coaster rise: Wall street After years of dominating global markets, US stocks are now lagging behind — with Europe reaping the gains. Since the start of the year, Wall Street's S&P 500 index has risen just two percent, while Frankfurt's main index has surged 16 percent. London and Paris have also outperformed, recording gains of eight and three percent respectively. Kevin Thozet of investment firm Carmignac attributed the underperformance to President Trump's inconsistent stance on tariffs. Thozet told AFP that the president's shifting stance on tariffs had fuelled significant uncertainty around how they might affect economic growth. Dollar The US dollar has shed 10 percent of its value against the euro over the past six months, its steepest decline in three decades, according to Robert Farago, analyst at British investment firm Hargreaves Lansdown. While President Trump's tariff policies are seen as the primary driver, mounting concerns over the ballooning US debt, amplified by a costly presidential budget proposal, have further weighed on the currency. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Thị trường có dấu hiệu suy thoái không? IC Markets Đăng ký Undo Though some have floated the idea of the Chinese yuan as a possible alternative to the dollar, ECB President Christine Lagarde recently highlighted the euro's potential for a stronger international role. Still, significant hurdles remain for any currency seeking to challenge the dollar's dominance. Debt American debt has long been seen as a bedrock of the global financial system, with investors worldwide turning to US Treasury bonds as a safe haven. But that confidence is starting to crack. JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon recently warned that the ballooning US debt is a "real problem" and that bond markets are entering a "tough time." At the end of May, yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds crossed the key five percent threshold—an indication of waning faith in America's ability to manage its debt. "I've always told clients they need US debt if they want an asset that remains intact even in a disaster, but I think that's no longer the case," said Alexandre Hezez, strategist at Banque Richelieu. Adding to the concern, Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers noted that the dollar is weakening even as interest rates rise, "a sign that money is leaving the US." Oil Donald Trump made lowering oil prices a key priority in his efforts to curb US inflation. In April, crude prices dipped below $60 a barrel, their lowest level since 2021. However, this drop was driven less by policy success and more by market fears. Investors, rattled by Trump's tariff moves, anticipated a global economic slowdown that would weaken demand. More recently, rising tensions in the Middle East have pushed prices back up. The military escalation between Israel and Iran has driven oil back to around $75 a barrel. Gold and crypto winning the game Gold has traditionally been seen as the ultimate safe haven during times of uncertainty and 2025 has been no different. Soaring demand has pushed its value up by nearly 30 percent since the start of the year. Much of this rally has been fuelled by major central banks, which are increasingly turning to gold over the US dollar to shore up their reserves. At the same time, Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind cryptocurrencies. Alongside his personal investments, his administration has introduced measures to integrate digital assets more firmly into the financial system. Bitcoin surged past the $100,000 mark for the first time shortly after the US election, capping off a nearly 60 percent gain over the past year. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
France 24
14 hours ago
- Business
- France 24
How Trumponomics has shaken global markets
Many investors are pulling money out of the United States, the mighty dollar has lost its lustre and Wall Street is being outpaced by European stock markets. Here is a look at the financial roller-coaster ride. US stocks under pressure After years of global dominance, US stocks are feeling the heat -- and Europe is the main beneficiary. Wall Street's S&P 500 index has gained just two percent since the start of the year, compared with 16 percent for Frankfurt's main index. Growth at the exchanges in London (eight percent) and Paris (three percent) is also outstripping Wall Street. Kevin Thozet from the investment firm Carmignac pinned the blame firmly on Trump. The president's flip-flopping on tariffs had created a "high level of uncertainty" about their potential impact on growth, Thozet told AFP. Dollar slides The dollar has lost 10 percent of its value against the euro in the past six months, "its worst performance in 30 years", according to Robert Farago, an analyst at the British investment firm Hargreaves Lansdown. Trump's tariffs are the main culprit but the global reserve currency is also suffering from concerns about the size of the US debt -- exacerbated by a budget proposal from the president that many analysts say will be hugely expensive. While some have suggested the Chinese yuan could become a dollar alternative, ECB chief Christine Lagarde has touted the euro, discussing in May its potentially greater "international role". But any currency attempting to topple the dollar faces plenty of challenges. "The yuan is not convertible, and the euro is too fragmented," said Jean Lemierre, chairman of the board of directors of BNP Paribas. Debt worries American debt is a cornerstone of the financial system, as the rest of the world lends to the United States in search of a safe investment. But Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase, said in early June that the level of US debt was a "real problem" and that bond markets were facing a "tough time". In a sign of the loss of confidence, interest rates on 30-year US Treasury bonds surpassed the symbolic five percent mark at the end of May. "I've always told clients they need US debt if they want an asset that remains intact even in a disaster, but I think that's no longer the case," said Alexandre Hezez, a strategist at Banque Richelieu. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at US-based Interactive Brokers, told AFP the fact the dollar was falling while rates were rising was "a sign there's money moving out of the US". Winners: gold, crypto Investors have long regarded gold as the ultimate safe harbour in a crisis, and the clamour for the metal has seen its value jump by almost 30 percent since the start of the year. Major central banks have also had a hand in pushing up the price, as they look to gold as a more sure bet than dollars to hold in their reserves. Meanwhile, Trump has leant heavily into cryptocurrencies with investments of his own and official measures to bring the assets into the mainstream. Bitcoin passed $100,000 for the first time just after the US election, increasing almost 60 percent in a year. Oil uncertainties Trump made it a priority to bring down oil prices so that US inflation would come down. Crude oil fell below $60 per barrel in April, its lowest price since 2021. But that was because investors spooked by Trump's tariffs were anticipating weaker demand worldwide if economies slowed. The military escalation between Israel and Iran has seen prices climb again to around $75 a barrel.
Int'l Business Times
14 hours ago
- Business
- Int'l Business Times
How Trumponomics Has Shaken Global Markets
US President Donald Trump has taken just a few months since his election to upend global financial markets with his economic policies. Many investors are pulling money out of the United States, the mighty dollar has lost its lustre and Wall Street is being outpaced by European stock markets. Here is a look at the financial roller-coaster ride. After years of global dominance, US stocks are feeling the heat -- and Europe is the main beneficiary. Wall Street's S&P 500 index has gained just two percent since the start of the year, compared with 16 percent for Frankfurt's main index. Growth at the exchanges in London (eight percent) and Paris (three percent) is also outstripping Wall Street. Kevin Thozet from the investment firm Carmignac pinned the blame firmly on Trump. The president's flip-flopping on tariffs had created a "high level of uncertainty" about their potential impact on growth, Thozet told AFP. The dollar has lost 10 percent of its value against the euro in the past six months, "its worst performance in 30 years", according to Robert Farago, an analyst at the British investment firm Hargreaves Lansdown. Trump's tariffs are the main culprit but the global reserve currency is also suffering from concerns about the size of the US debt -- exacerbated by a budget proposal from the president that many analysts say will be hugely expensive. While some have suggested the Chinese yuan could become a dollar alternative, ECB chief Christine Lagarde has touted the euro, discussing in May its potentially greater "international role". But any currency attempting to topple the dollar faces plenty of challenges. "The yuan is not convertible, and the euro is too fragmented," said Jean Lemierre, chairman of the board of directors of BNP Paribas. American debt is a cornerstone of the financial system, as the rest of the world lends to the United States in search of a safe investment. But Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase, said in early June that the level of US debt was a "real problem" and that bond markets were facing a "tough time". In a sign of the loss of confidence, interest rates on 30-year US Treasury bonds surpassed the symbolic five percent mark at the end of May. "I've always told clients they need US debt if they want an asset that remains intact even in a disaster, but I think that's no longer the case," said Alexandre Hezez, a strategist at Banque Richelieu. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at US-based Interactive Brokers, told AFP the fact the dollar was falling while rates were rising was "a sign there's money moving out of the US". Investors have long regarded gold as the ultimate safe harbour in a crisis, and the clamour for the metal has seen its value jump by almost 30 percent since the start of the year. Major central banks have also had a hand in pushing up the price, as they look to gold as a more sure bet than dollars to hold in their reserves. Meanwhile, Trump has leant heavily into cryptocurrencies with investments of his own and official measures to bring the assets into the mainstream. Bitcoin passed $100,000 for the first time just after the US election, increasing almost 60 percent in a year. Trump made it a priority to bring down oil prices so that US inflation would come down. Crude oil fell below $60 per barrel in April, its lowest price since 2021. But that was because investors spooked by Trump's tariffs were anticipating weaker demand worldwide if economies slowed. The military escalation between Israel and Iran has seen prices climb again to around $75 a barrel.
Mint
06-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
'US no longer a safe nation for investment': Why Carmignac chief economist thinks Trump's 'revenge tax' will backfire
Raphael Gallardo, chief economist at French asset manager Carmignac. warned that the United States is no longer a secure destination for foreign investors because of risks stemming from President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill, as reported by Bloomberg. Gallardo is the latest market commentator to speak about the deep concerns over Section 899 of the bill, a provision that would increase tax rates for individuals and companies from countries whose tax policies the US considers 'discriminatory'. Some have dubbed the measure a 'revenge tax'. During a briefing on the outlook for the second half of the year, Gallardo said, 'The United States is no longer a safe nation for investment.' Carmignac, which had about $39 billion under management at the end of 2024, titled its presentation ''From America First' to Global Financial Anarchy'. Gallardo believes that Trump's unpredictable decisions on trade, along with the concerns around his foreign policy and the rule of law are all prompting traditional allies of the US to reduce their dependence and ties to the world's biggest economy. 'Why de-risk? Because the United States has become a totally unreliable military ally and so, one has to secure supply chains, find new markets,' as reported by Bloomberg. According to Bloomberg data, the Wall Street consensus is that the tax provision would further decrease investors' confidence in US assets, which are already shaken by Trump's trade policies and America's deteriorating fiscal accounts. The tax provision could trigger a 5 per cent fall in the dollar and a 10 per cent selloff across equities, according to Allianz SE chief investment officer Ludovic Subran. Carmignac is diversifying asset allocations from the US to Europe, where Germany's historic fiscal reforms have given a boost to economic growth, reported Bloomberg. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has taken a series of measures to add weight to the country's military capacity, accelerate infrastructure spending and revive the economy through comprehensive corporate tax breaks. 'Trump managed to achieve what no one had managed before, and that's to make the Germans start to spend,' Gallardo said. Bloomberg reported that European equities have emerged as clear winners worldwide this year as concerns over the Trump administration's trade policies encourage investors to reduce holdings of US assets. At the end of May, eight of the world's 10 best-performing stock indexes were European. Carmignac handles a range of funds across equity, fixed income, diversified and alternative asset classes with different geographical focuses and target outcomes. It was among asset managers who predicted the rally in global shares last year, dismissing talk of a bubble in equity markets, as per Bloomberg
Bloomberg
06-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
US Markets Are No Longer Safe for Investments, Carmignac Says
The US has ceased to be a secure destination for foreign investors because of risks stemming from President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill, according to Raphael Gallardo, chief economist at French asset manager Carmignac. Gallardo is the latest market commentator to voice deep concern about Section 899 of the bill. The provision would increase tax rates for individuals and companies from countries whose tax policies the US deems 'discriminatory,' prompting some to dub the measure the 'revenge tax.'
