Latest news with #BudgetLab
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Mothers bear brunt of rising US costs: ‘It's always a fight'
When it comes to managing the household grocery list, remembering all the various teachers at school, and juggling the family doctors' appointments, Katherine de la Cruz has it all on her plate while working full-time as a paralegal. 'My brain is on, on, on 24/7. I think even while I sleep, I'm dreaming about what's going to happen,' said de la Cruz, who lives in Arizona with her husband, toddler, two foster kids and another baby expected soon. 'Then my husband tries to calm me down, but bless his heart, like, I mean, moms take out most of the family stuff anyways.' She's concerned about the cost of food and childcare as Donald Trump's on-again and off-again tariffs continue to threaten higher prices nationwide. In the last year alone, de la Cruz said her family's monthly grocery bill has already doubled, going from roughly $400 a month to more than $800 for her household. 'Now, not only are the kids growing up, not only is the food going up, but I feel like there's much less food coming into like these packages,' said de la Cruz. 'And this is aside from, sometimes you want to eat out, sometimes you just want pizza, like, you know, and so now, on top of the groceries that we just paid, we gotta pay delivery fees.' In Maryland, Chauntay Lawson said she's juggling similar concerns. Lawson and her husband have a two-year-old daughter, and even with two incomes, she said the cost of gas, utilities and food is putting immense pressure on their budget. 'We can't be in a position where we lose our home, or we lose just our basic necessities, because of the price of things or just overspending,' said Lawson. As of 1 June, tariffs are estimated to cost the average American household roughly $2,500 this year, according to the Budget Lab at Yale, a non-partisan policy research center. The analysis also projects that tariffs would disproportionately affect clothing and textiles, leading to higher prices for shoes and apparel. Currently, there is a universal US tariff of 10% in effect, but this may change for many countries once the 90-day pause on higher reciprocal tariffs ends in early July. While trade talks between the US and China continue, de la Cruz is already bracing for higher costs. She's cutting back by trying to lower bills for car insurance, cell service and internet. However, she and her husband, Francisco, a woodworker, are also considering more significant changes, such as selling one of their cars or downsizing to a smaller home. 'Although we are coming up with ideas, there's always a lot of cons coming with it, because if we do leave our nice neighborhood and end up going somewhere else, education is going to be lower or it's not going to be as safe,' said de la Cruz. Like many women in the workplace, both de la Cruz and Lawson are also facing another financial challenge – the persistent gender pay gap between the earnings of fathers and mothers in the US. 'I don't even need to see the numbers to know that that's true,' said Lawson, a technical program manager. 'I feel that every day at work.' In its latest analysis, the Institute for Women's Policy Research (IWPR) reports that mothers who worked full-time jobs earned roughly 74 cents for every dollar paid to working fathers in 2023, the most recent year for this data. That means mothers are earning about $19,000 less a year for full-time work. 'We're talking about people who are fully engaged in the labor market, and even when they're fully engaged in the labor market, they're earning less,' said Dr Kate Bahn, chief economist at IWPR. The disparity is worse for mothers of color. According to IWPR's data, Latina mothers earned approximately 43 cents, Native American mothers earned 48 cents, and Black mothers earned 49 cents for every dollar earned by white fathers in 2023. IWPR's report shows that white mothers earned about 62 cents, and Asian American/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (AANHPI) mothers earned about 73 cents for every dollar earned by white fathers across all earnings. Bahn said that several policies would help mothers and caregivers achieve a more equitable work-life-family balance, including paid family and medical leave, paid sick leave, flexible work schedules, and access to affordable childcare. However, she stressed this long-term trend of the parenthood pay divide underscores a deeper issue. While women have increased their participation in the labor force in various jobs over the last 50 to 60 years, Bahn said another form of discrimination has persisted in the workplace as well. She calls it the 'motherhood penalty', a form of unfair bias and discrimination against working mothers that negatively affects their wages. 'Some of this is a belief that mothers might be less productive, but then, even when mothers are productive, they're also viewed as less likable,' said Bahn. 'Then the other side of it is that fathers are paid more, all else equal, because there's like a fatherhood bonus … so they're more likely to pay them more.' According to the IWPR report, the 'motherhood penalty' begins after the birth of a first child and persists throughout a mother's career in the workplace. 'It's always a fight to prove that I can still do my job and be a mom,' said Lawson. 'I almost feel like I under-share my motherhood journey with colleagues and supervisors, because I don't want them to ever think that I'm not giving 100% to work because I'm picking up my child from her classes, or I'm distracted or anything.'
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariff damage looms without new trade deal, says economist
May's lower import volumes through the Port of Los Angeles could be a sign of things to come absent a new trade deal with China, even as the tariff pause boosts U.S.-bound shipments even with year-ago levels. The southern California container gateway, a bellwether indicator for broader economic activity, saw its 10-month growth streak snapped on total throughput of 717,000 twenty foot equivalent units, 5% lower than the previous year's volume for the same month. The 9% drop in imports from the previous year and a sharp 19% decrease compared to April prior to the tariff pause created a striking variance from expectations. 'Inbound cargo totaled 356,020 TEUs, about 25% less than our projections from the beginning of April, prior to the tariffs' announcement,' said port Executive Director Gene Seroka, in a media totaled 120,000 units, also down 5% y/y, the sixth straight month of decline. Seroka said it was 'promising' that the U.S. and China continue to talk, referring to the recent negotiations in London. But 'tariffs remain elevated,' maintaining an impactful 55% rate on Chinese imports to the United States. The retaliatory tariffs from China, averaging 10%, contribute to an uncertain trade environment. Still, data from SONAR showed shippers taking advantage of the tariff pause. Through June 16 loaded container volume headed to the U.S. from Chinese ports was even with year-ago Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale University, in the briefing provided a detailed analysis of how the tariffs are affecting consumers and the economy at large. 'Tariffs to date announced in 2025 raise the average effective tariff rate in the United States by an additional 12 percentage points,' Tedeschi said. This increase translates into a 1.5% hike in prices for American families, which effectively reduces purchasing power by approximately $2,500 per family per year in 2024 dollars. Tedeschi said the regressive nature of tariffs 'hurt lower and working-class families more,' with those at the income scale's bottom experiencing a 2.5% pinch compared to the top's 1%. As the conversation turned to the inflationary impacts of tariffs, Tedeschi said it takes time for tariffs to flow through to the official data. He said tariffs on imported washing machines in 2018 took three months to influence consumer prices significantly. The current situation, complicated by factors like inventory levels and uncertain policy outcomes, suggests a gradual but persistent effect on inflation. Despite these challenges, there was a semblance of positive news shared with respect to future port activities. Seroka noted, 'Released just this week, the National Retail Federation's port tracker predicts a decline in imports for June, July, and August.' Although this points to continued caution, the port's operational readiness offers some optimism. 'Our velocity statistics are good,' Seroka emphasized, indicating that the port's infrastructure is well-prepared to manage fluctuating cargo volumes efficiently. Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here. WATCH: 'Dark fleet' tanker collision sparks fire near Strait of Hormuz Los Angeles box volume hits lowest level in two years Israel ports unfazed by new missile strikes UPDATE: Return of Red Sea cargo 'less likely' after attacks on Iran The post Tariff damage looms without new trade deal, says economist appeared first on FreightWaves. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Indian Express
09-06-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
Consumers' loss, farmer optimism: In US, trade war sees key groups at odds
April was one of the most important months in the world's economic history, with the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs coming into force on April 2 before being put on pause for 90 days a week later. The threat of the reciprocal tariffs, however, has seemingly had the opposite effect as American companies stocked up ahead of the tariffs' rollout. Data released last week showed that while the US' goods and services trade deficit in April 2025 fell a record 55 per cent from March 2025 to a 19-month low of $61.6 billion, the deficit for the first four months of 2025 was up 66 per cent compared to a year ago. The basis of Trump's reciprocal tariffs was that it would help bring down the US' trade deficit with various countries. Take India, for instance, which enjoyed a total trade surplus of $46.09 billion with the US in 2024. However, India's merchandise trade surplus with the US for the first four months of 2025 increased by 45 per cent to $23.29 billion, with imports from India up 29 per cent according to latest data from the US commerce department. In January-April 2025, the US imported $9.49 billion of advanced technology products from India, up 86 per cent from a year ago. Consumers & farmers American consumers have, for long, been considered the biggest losers in the Trump administration's pursuit of balanced trade. According to non-partisan policy research center The Budget Lab at Yale, American households, on average, are facing a consumption loss of $2,500 in 2025 when prices are measured in 2024 levels. 'The post-substitution price increase settles at 1.3%, a $2,100 loss per household,' The Budget Lab at Yale said. The Budget Lab estimates that Americans are facing an overall average effective tariff rate of 15.6 per cent at present — the highest since 1937 — with segments such as clothing and textiles being affected the most. In the short run, shoe and apparel prices for US consumers are up 31 per cent and 28 per cent, respectively. Despite the pain from tariffs, some in the US are still upbeat; in fact, more so than in several years. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index climbed to a four-year high last month, suggesting improved sentiment among farmers due to a 'much more optimistic view of US agricultural export prospects, combined with a less negative view of tariffs' impact on 2025 farm income than respondents provided in either March or April'. Exports are indeed on American farmers' minds, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins having recently visited Italy as part of her 'aggressive travel agenda to promote American agriculture worldwide'. The trip to Italy follows one to the UK in May 2025, with India, Vietnam, Japan, Peru, and Brazil on Rollins' schedule over the coming months. Shifting views on free trade Rather ironically, even as US and Chinese officials meet in London on Monday to add to the preliminary agreement that was agreed last month, American farmers have over the years grown somewhat skeptical of how beneficial free trade is. As per the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, 18 per cent of producers in May 2025 either disagreed or strongly disagreed when presented with the statement that 'free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries'. Back in December 2020, the corresponding number was just 7 per cent.
Boston Globe
09-06-2025
- Business
- Boston Globe
Trump is touting a $3 trillion tariff windfall. Don't bank on it.
(Net tariff revenue, which excludes certain other excise tax revenue and includes tariff rebates or refunds, accounts for 80 to 85 percent of the gross figure.) Over the next decade, the tariffs in place as of May 13 Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up But hold on — tariff math gets complicated. Advertisement Yes, even with the national debt at $36 trillion, $3 trillion isn't a laughing matter. For context, the CBO says the House Republicans' 'big, beautiful' bill Trump quickly seized on the forecasts, asserting that tariffs would more than pay for the tax cuts and new spending — leaving, in his words, a 'tremendous surplus.' But that argument only works if imports stay high and the economy doesn't slow — both unlikely under his own policies. Advertisement Still, expect to hear about that big windfall a lot as the president pushes the bill in the Senate, where even A closer look reveals just how shaky that claim is. Here's a rundown. American businesses and consumers pay Trump's tariffs — not foreign governments. Despite what the president says, US importers shoulder the cost and pass much of it to their customers — other businesses and consumers — in the form of higher prices. Trump's plan trades income-tax cuts that disproportionately benefit the rich for consumption taxes that hit low- and middle-income households harder. Inflation will heat up. The CBO said tariffs would boost inflation — as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index — by an annual average of 0.4 percentage points in 2025 and 2026. The PCE rate was an annualized 2.1 percent in April. The Budget Lab at Yale University Prices for essentials like clothing and shoes are expected to surge. Shoe and apparel prices will spike 31 percent and 28 percent, respectively, in the short term, the Budget Lab said. The economy will slow. Duties will cut gross domestic product by 0.6 percent, or $266 billion, cumulatively through 2035, according to the CBO. The modest reduction is the net of positive effects — such as smaller deficits and more money available for private investments — and negative effects including lower productivity. The Budget Lab forecasts a bigger long-term drag on growth from tariffs: 0.3 percentage point, or $100 billion, each year. Advertisement It sees We can't rely on tariff revenues. Trade flows fluctuate for several reasons, including the pace of economic growth and the level of import duties. Many economists say Trump's erratic trade policies have caused enough uncertainty to trigger a US recession, which would curb spending on imports and drive tariff revenues lower. Moreover, there is a disconnect in Trump's strategy: He argues that tariffs will both raise trillions of dollars and force other countries to negotiate trade deals that are more favorable for the United States. But if he succeeds at the negotiating table, tariff revenue will decline — and the 'tremendous surplus' will shrink. Final thought President Trump doesn't just love tariffs — he touts them as the cure to all of America's economic ills. In his mind, they're a magic wand he can wave to reduce the trade deficit, revive domestic manufacturing, and pay for tax cuts. But magical thinking doesn't work in the real world of global economics. Larry Edelman can be reached at
Yahoo
06-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Will the Stock Market Crash as Tariffs Hit the Economy in 2025? History Offers an Important Clue.
The S&P 500 crashed when President Trump unveiled his "Liberation Day" tariffs in early April, but the benchmark index has since staged an astounding recovery. History says President Trump's tariffs could cause a recession, and the S&P 500 has declined by an average of 31% during past recessions. The S&P 500's best days and worst days often occur in clusters, so investors that sit on the sidelines during drawdowns risk missing the rebound. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) rocketed higher when Donald Trump won the presidential election in November. Investors assumed his administration would usher in a period of booming economic growth with tax cuts and deregulation. Instead, Trump has made changes to U.S. trade policy that numerous economists say will slow economic growth and raise prices. The S&P 500 began falling in February when Trump fired the first salvo in the trade war: He announced tariffs on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico, followed by duties on aluminum, steel, and auto imports. But the losses accelerated in April when the president unveiled more aggressive "Liberation Day" tariffs. The news erased over $6 trillion from the U.S. stock market in two trading days. Surprisingly, the S&P 500 has since staged one of its greatest comebacks in history. The index is actually up 2% year to date and currently sits within striking distance of its record high. Trump softening his stance on certain trade policies has been the primary reason for the recovery, but the most aggressive tariffs are merely paused and some Wall Street analysts think investors have been lulled into a false sense of security. Will the stock market crash (again) in 2025? Here's what investors should know. The Budget Lab at Yale University estimates tariffs effective as of June 2 have pushed the average tax on U.S. imports from 2.5% in 2024 to 15.6% in 2025, the highest level since 1937. History offers a clue about what may happen if President Trump stays the course with the current trade war. Consider this information: The average tax on U.S. imports rose 14 percentage points between 1918 and 1933. That is similar to the 13-point increase this year, but the present situation is arguably more severe because of the accelerated timeline. President Trump has effected a massive tariff hike in a matter of weeks rather than over 15 years. The U.S. suffered five distinct recessions between 1918 and 1933, including the Great Depression. In fact, tariffs were such a persistent headwind during that 15-year period that the U.S. economy spent 95 months (about half the period) in a recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. From that perspective, President Trump's tariffs could indeed cause a recession in the coming months, and recessions have historically coincided with stock market crashes. The following chart shows the peak-to-trough decline in the S&P 500 during every recession since the index was created in March 1957. Recession Start Date S&P 500's Peak-to-Trough Decline August 1957 21% April 1960 14% December 1969 36% November 1973 48% January 1980 17% July 1981 27% July 1990 20% March 2001 37% December 2007 57% February 2020 34% Average 32% Data source: Truist Advisory Services. As shown in the chart, the S&P 500 has declined by an average of 32% during recessions. The least severe drawdown was 14% and the most severe drawdown was 57%. So history says there is a very good chance the stock market will crash if tariffs imposed by President Trump cause a recession. Whether that actually happens depends on the outcome of the ongoing trade negotiations. If the U.S. strikes deals that reduce the average tariff rate to something reasonable, a recession would be less likely. Investors concerned about a market crash may think it prudent to sell their stocks and sit on the sidelines until the economic storm clouds clear. But a market crash is not guaranteed. And even if it was, market timing strategies tend to backfire because the best and worst days often occur in close proximity. In the last two decades, seven of the 10 best trading days happened within two weeks of the 10 worst trading days. And missing the best days led to severe underperformance. JPMorgan Chase strategists recently cited that statistic and concluded, "Market timing is futile and staying invested is paramount." That does not mean investors should keep every stock they currently own. The S&P 500 is trading near its all-time high, so the present is an excellent time to sell any stocks where confidence is lacking. The present is also a good time for investors to stockpile some cash in their portfolios. Spare cash makes it easy to buy the dip during market corrections. However, investors should never overlook an opportunity to buy a high-conviction stock at a reasonable price. When I say high conviction, I mean any company whose earnings are virtually certain to be much higher in five years. And when I say reasonable price, I mean a sensible valuation multiple in the context of anticipated future growth. Here's the big picture: History says President Trump's tariffs could drag the U.S. economy into a recession, and recessions have usually coincided with steep declines in the S&P 500. So investors should be prepared for a market crash in the coming months, but they shouldn't be so consumed by the possibility that they avoid good stocks today. Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $668,538!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $869,841!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 789% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025 JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Trevor Jennewine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Will the Stock Market Crash as Tariffs Hit the Economy in 2025? History Offers an Important Clue. was originally published by The Motley Fool Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
