Trump is touting a $3 trillion tariff windfall. Don't bank on it.

Boston Globe09-06-2025

(Net tariff revenue, which excludes certain other excise tax revenue and includes tariff rebates or refunds, accounts for 80 to 85 percent of the gross figure.)
Over the next decade, the tariffs in place as of May 13
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But hold on — tariff math gets complicated.
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Yes,
even with the national debt at $36 trillion, $3 trillion isn't a laughing matter.
For context, the CBO says the House Republicans' 'big, beautiful' bill
Trump quickly seized on the forecasts, asserting that tariffs would more than pay for the tax cuts and new spending — leaving, in his words, a 'tremendous surplus.'
But that argument only works if imports stay high and the economy doesn't slow — both unlikely under his own policies.
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Still, expect to hear about that big windfall a lot as the president pushes the bill in the Senate, where even
A closer look reveals just how shaky that claim is. Here's a rundown.
American businesses and consumers pay Trump's tariffs — not foreign governments.
Despite what the president says, US importers shoulder the cost and pass much of it to their customers — other businesses and consumers — in the form of higher prices.
Trump's plan trades income-tax cuts that disproportionately benefit the rich for consumption taxes that hit low- and middle-income households harder.
Inflation will heat up.
The CBO said tariffs would boost inflation — as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index — by an annual average of 0.4 percentage points in 2025 and 2026. The PCE rate was an annualized 2.1 percent in April.
The Budget Lab at Yale University
Prices for essentials like clothing and shoes are expected to surge. Shoe and apparel prices will spike 31 percent and 28 percent, respectively, in the short term, the Budget Lab said.
The economy will slow.
Duties will cut gross domestic product by 0.6 percent, or $266 billion, cumulatively through 2035, according to the CBO.
The modest reduction is the net of positive effects — such as smaller deficits and more money available for private investments — and negative effects including lower productivity.
The Budget Lab forecasts a bigger long-term drag on growth from tariffs: 0.3 percentage point, or $100 billion, each year.
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It sees
We can't rely on tariff revenues.
Trade flows fluctuate for several reasons, including the pace of economic growth and the level of import duties.
Many economists
say Trump's erratic trade policies have caused enough uncertainty to trigger a US recession, which would curb spending on imports and drive tariff revenues lower.
Moreover, there is a disconnect in Trump's strategy: He argues that tariffs will both raise trillions of dollars and force other countries to negotiate trade deals that are more favorable for the United States.
But if he succeeds at the negotiating table, tariff revenue will decline — and the 'tremendous surplus' will shrink.
Final thought
President Trump doesn't just love tariffs — he touts them as the cure to all of America's economic ills.
In his mind, they're a magic wand he can wave to reduce the trade deficit, revive domestic manufacturing, and pay for tax cuts.
But magical thinking doesn't work in the real world of global economics.
Larry Edelman can be reached at

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Huckabee: State Department is evacuating Americans from Israel amid Iran conflict

USA Today

40 minutes ago

USA Today

Huckabee: State Department is evacuating Americans from Israel amid Iran conflict

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee also posted actions people can take to remain safe including learning the location of the nearest bomb shelters. The State Department has begun evacuating American citizens and permanent residents from Israel and the West Bank, U.S Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee announced on social media as the Israel-Iran war enters a second week. 'The Department of State has begun assisted departure flights from Israel,' Huckabee wrote in a post on X on June 21 asking people seeking government assistance to fill out a form. Huckabee also posted actions people can take to remain safe including learning the location of the nearest bomb shelters, avoiding large gatherings and monitoring local media. The State Department did not immediately respond to questions asking about the number of Americans it expects to retrieve from Israel. The conflict started a week ago when Israel began conducting airstrikes against Iranian nuclear and military sites, primarily targeting uranium enrichment facilities to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The two countries have been engaged in aerial strikes while President Donald Trump is mulling over the possibility of U.S. involvement to help Israel destroy Iranian nuclear facilities. Hundreds of Americans have left Iran in the last week, according to an internal State Department cable seen by Reuters. Trump is expected meet his national security team on the evening of June 21 to discuss possible U.S. involvement in the conflict .