Latest news with #Bohr
Yahoo
06-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Do mortgage rates go down in a recession?
There's been a lot of talk lately about the possibility of a recession. In April, JPMorgan Research increased the probability of a recession in 2025 to 60%, up from the earlier prediction of 40%. Torsten Sløk, a partner and chief economist at Apollo Global Management, an alternative asset manager and owner of Yahoo Inc., puts the odds of a recession this year at 90%. Sounds bleak, right? Yet, a recession may be just the kind of economic setback that pushes mortgage rates down. This embedded content is not available in your region. Clement Bohr, economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, recently issued a Recession Watch analysis. "Every economist out there right now is saying just this tariff policy alone could trigger a recession in the U.S.," Bohr told Yahoo Finance in a phone interview. However, he added that forecasting a recession is difficult because policy-making decisions by the Trump administration vary day-to-day. Read more: The best mortgage lenders for low or no down payments In this article: What happens to mortgage rates in a recession? "Usually rates come down in a recession," Bohr said. "But it's not always the case, or at least if we look at what's going to happen this time around, it's not necessarily going to be the case." Bohr said mortgage rates usually come down in a recession because, as the stock market becomes more volatile, investors shift their portfolios into government bonds. This pushes the prices of the bonds up — and yields (interest rates) fall. What may be different this time? "The shock that's going to trigger this recession is also a shock that's going to boost inflation, at least over the short term," Bohr added. If the trade war with China causes supply chain interruptions, Bohr said the risk of inflation might put the Federal Reserve in a position to not lower rates any further. With the counterpressures of possible inflation and potential recession, mortgage rates may not move much. "I would be surprised if interest rates go much higher because we have seen now that the administration is sensitive to that," Bohr said. There's also a chance that the nation experiences a mild or very brief recession, which would likely not impact interest rates. That's the thing about recessions — you don't know you're in one until it's already underway — or nearly over. The National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession after "a few months" of data indicating a declining economy. Learn more: How the Federal Reserve rate decision impacts mortgage rates A 50-year history of recessions and mortgage rates There have been seven recessions over the past 50 years. In all of those economic downturns, 30-year mortgage rates eventually dropped. Sometimes, well after a recession. In the more than yearlong recession lasting from late 1973 to early 1975, rates fell, then rose, then dropped again. In the much shorter, five-month recession of 1980, mortgage rates skyrocketed from 12.85% to over 16% before dropping to nearly 12% as the recession ended. However, between the end of June 1980 and the beginning of the next recession one year later, rates crept up to 17% and even higher before dropping again. In the most recent recession, which lasted barely three months in the early pandemic year of 2020, mortgage interest rates barely budged, hovering near the mid-3% range. Yet, as the pandemic lingered, rates eventually fell to 2.65% before climbing to where they are today. It may take only a slight dip in rates to unlock the housing market Bohr said that existing home sales have been "stuck" for so long, with homeowners sitting on very low-rate mortgages, that they may be sitting in houses that just don't fit their lifestyles anymore. "At some point, say even just a 1% decline in the mortgage rate — which would be quite something — may be enough to trigger a lot of them to finally relocate into something that fits them better,' Bohr said. 'And they'll just eat the extra couple percentage-point margin in the new mortgage." With his outlook of mortgage rates not moving substantially higher or lower, it's a nugget of hope for prospective home buyers. "Even a slight decline in mortgage rates could boost the housing market quite substantially," he said. Read more: Should you buy a house during a recession? Do mortgage rates go down in a recession? FAQs Do home prices drop in a recession? They generally do, but as you can see from the chart above, most mortgage rate movements — up or down — happen outside the very narrow time frames of recessions. What happens if you have a mortgage during a recession? If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, your payment will remain the same unless changes occur with taxes, insurance, or any other escrow accounts that may be a part of your monthly payment. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, if you are beyond the introductory rate period, your payment may reset with the movement of interest rates at its next periodic rate adjustment. Are mortgage rates expected to drop? Most analysts aren't expecting any drastic drops in home loan rates within the next year. Of course, that can change with a dramatic shock to the U.S. economy. Will we ever see a 3% mortgage rate again? It's not likely. However, few, if any, people can forecast an unexpected economic setback. The pandemic was the most recent example — and the 2008 housing market crash another. Laura Grace Tarpley edited this article.
Associated Press
20-04-2025
- Science
- Associated Press
The Untold Link Between Niels Bohr and the Puzzle of Rare Earths
04/19/2025, Miami , Florida // KISS PR Brand Story PressWire // How a Nobel Laureate Helped Make Sense of One of Modern Industry's Most Mysterious Elements Rare earths are having a moment. You'll find them at the heart of every discussion about electric vehicles, wind turbines, defence technology, and the energy transition. But as founder of TELF AG Stanislav Kondrashov often emphasised, the term 'rare earths' is still widely misunderstood. They're often confused with critical minerals in general, and while some overlap, they are not the same thing. The 17 rare earth elements may sound obscure, but they're essential to the technology that powers your everyday life—from your mobile phone to renewable energy infrastructure. Yet behind this essential role lies a fascinating scientific mystery that remained unsolved for decades. Few people realise that it took the revolutionary insights of physicist Niels Bohr to finally untangle it. A Scientific Mystery Hidden in Plain Sight Before the early 20th century, scientists had a hard time making sense of rare earths. These elements were confusing, mainly because they behaved almost identically in chemical reactions. Elements like cerium and neodymium stubbornly resisted classification, not because they were unknown, but because they defied the rules scientists thought they understood. At the time, the periodic table was arranged by atomic weight. But with rare earths, this method just didn't hold up. The elements didn't fit neatly into the existing framework. There were overlaps, inconsistencies, and a general sense that something fundamental was missing. As founder of TELF AG Stanislav Kondrashov recently pointed out, 'It wasn't just that these elements were hard to find—they were hard to explain.' That's where Niels Bohr stepped in. Known for developing the quantum model of the atom, Bohr's 1913 theory offered a brand-new way of looking at atomic structure. His model proposed that electrons orbited the nucleus in fixed paths and that each element's chemical properties were dictated by the arrangement of its electrons. For rare earths, this theory was a game-changer. It explained why these elements had such similar behaviour: their outer electrons, the ones responsible for chemical reactions, were nearly identical. The real changes happened deeper inside the atom, in the inner orbitals, making them invisible to traditional chemical analysis. Bohr didn't just offer a clearer picture—he offered the missing key. Clarifying the Chaos: Bohr Meets Moseley But theory alone wasn't enough. Around the same time, English physicist Henry Moseley was experimenting with X-rays. His breakthrough? Proving that atomic number, not atomic weight, was the true way to organise the periodic table. Moseley's work confirmed Bohr's predictions and finally brought rare earths into sharp scientific focus. Together, their discoveries allowed scientists to confirm that 14 elements sat between lanthanum and hafnium—now known as the lanthanides. Add scandium and yttrium, and you get the 17 rare earth elements we know today. As founder of TELF AG Stanislav Kondrashov recently remarked, the significance of this discovery goes beyond academic interest. Without this foundational understanding, modern industries would struggle to utilise rare earths efficiently. Today's rare earth-dependent tech—whether in renewable energy, defence, or consumer electronics—owes a debt to Bohr's insights. And yet, Bohr's name rarely comes up in the conversation about rare earths. His contributions are often overshadowed by his work in quantum physics. But his role in bringing order to the rare earth chaos deserves its own spotlight. In the end, while these elements may be dubbed 'rare', their rarity lies not in their abundance, but in the challenge of extracting them in usable form. Bohr helped make sense of their inner workings. Moseley gave us the numbers to back it up. And thanks to both, what was once a scientific riddle has become the foundation of a technological revolution. Original Source of the original story >> The Untold Link Between Niels Bohr and the Puzzle of Rare Earths
Los Angeles Times
11-04-2025
- Business
- Los Angeles Times
‘I'm so scared': Readers share their trade war anxieties
Good morning. Here's what you need to know to start your day. Who else wants off this roller coaster? After unleashing financial chaos last week with his so-called reciprocal global tariffs, President Trump on Wednesday paused many of them for 90 days. This could be different by the time you're reading this, but as of Friday morning, the Trump administration has maintained a base 10% tariff on nearly all global imports. Previously announced tariffs on Mexico and Canada — two major U.S. trading partners — stand at 25% for most imports, with some exemptions. But the big news is imports from China, which Trump slapped with a 145% tariff. Trump initially announced a 125% import tax on Chinese products, writing on his Truth Social platform that it was 'based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World's Markets.' Asked by reporters Wednesday why he paused the other tariffs, Trump said 'people were jumping a little bit out of line … they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.' After plummeting in the aftermath of Trump's initial tariff plan, the U.S. stock market surged Wednesday when he announced the pause on many global tariffs, then fell again Thursday as fears of a brutal trade war with China set it. For economist Clement Bohr, Trump's walk-back is only a 'marginal relief.' 'There was significant concern about a financial crisis, [which is] why you saw the president eventually backing off … we were close to a precipice there and it was scary,' he said. 'Now we're in a massive trade war with China [that] is basically ripping apart the main artery of the global trading system.' Bohr is an assistant professor of global economics and management at UCLA and issued a 'Recession Watch' last month at the university's Anderson Forecast. I interviewed him for some tariff reporting earlier this week, but given the whiplash from the White House, I called him back to ask: Does this change anything about the risk of a recession? 'From the perspective of the 'Recession Watch,' things haven't really changed much,' he said. 'The main discussion right now is whether this tariff policy, which is now mainly a trade war with China but also across-the-board 10% tariffs … is in and of itself enough to lead to a recession in the U.S.' I asked Bohr what he would tell the public during this ambiguous economic climate. He didn't have good news, but cautioned against reading too much into the 'erratic' swings of the market. 'There's as much uncertainty as there ever has been,' he said. 'Expect this volatility to keep happening in the stock market.' How is all this uncertainty affecting Californians? We asked, you answered. Dozens of our readers answered our survey this week, sharing their concerns about rising prices and the impact tariffs will have on their livelihoods. Here's what some of you had to say (edited for clarity and brevity): '[I worry about] being able to pay my rent because it is have food or have a home. I am afraid. I am old enough and wise enough to see [that] the president's behavior exhibits no concern for me and others, old and young, and our desire to live.' — Emily N., Fresno 'We bought a car two weeks ago in anticipation of prices going up because of tariffs. Our 401(k) and other investments are losing money. I feel the trade war is making our country and the world less safe. I am in my seventies; I can't believe this is how my life is going to end.' — Debra V., Thousand Oaks 'I recently started an [e-bike] business, and I had to pause pre-orders because I don't know what my final costs will be at port. I've given up hope of making a profit or even recouping my startup costs — I just hope to pass my e-bikes along to customers at cost and maybe close the business after that.' — Kate M., Visalia 'These new tariffs could quietly reshape everything we do at my work's interior design and retail store. So much of our work relies on finding unique, often vintage or handcrafted pieces from abroad. I'm also worried about us expanding and opening more retail outlets, because it just doesn't make sense to expand business in a contracting market.' — Noah V., San Diego County 'I can barely afford food and gas and utilities. I live a very simple life. If prices continue to rise, I will not be able to support my most basic needs. I run a service business that is modeled on people hiring me to help with their pets and homes while they are away. Since January my clients have been canceling bookings/travel and my income has dropped dramatically.' — Bernadette V., Eureka 'My husband and I are seniors. We barely make it now. Tariffs are terrifying and if we don't have our [Social Security] checks we will be in the streets. I seriously don't know how we will survive. I'm sure there are many in our position. How is this happening? I'm so scared.' — Rosemarie C., Pittsburg, Calif. 'The stress of watching the trade war and stock market is disconcerting. Many of the folks I know have just stopped watching the news… This is unprecedented. I am losing sleep.' — Laura R., Sebastopol 'I am mainly reacting with quiet panic. And despair. It is wholly demoralizing to work to shape our lives and our futures and our careers and our financial safety nets and our homes and our livelihoods — all while the bad economic policy of a megalomaniacal despot can tank all of it in a matter of a few weeks.' — Andrew B., Los Angeles Worried or wondering how Trump's trade war (however it shapes out) will affect you? Our survey is still open and we'd like to hear from you. We may feature your voice in upcoming editions of the newsletter. You can read more of The Times' trade war coverage here: Hantavirus caused three recent deaths in California. Here's what to know about the virus A rich L.A. neighborhood donated surveillance technology to the LAPD — then drama ensued Coachella 2025 kicks off this weekend. Everything you need to know What else is going on Get unlimited access to the Los Angeles Times. Subscribe here. A battle between California truckers leads to a twisted murder-for-hire plot. Authorities claim they hired a hit man to make a business competitor 'disappear.' What they didn't know was that the would-be assassin was talking to the FBI. Other must reads How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@ Going out Staying in Email us at essentialcalifornia@ and your response might appear in the newsletter this week. Show us your favorite place in California! Send us photos you have taken of spots in California that are special — natural or human-made — and tell us why they're important to you. Today's great photo is from former Times photographer Mel Melcon as part of a photo essay about how L.A.'s pay phones have faded into history. Have a great day, from the Essential California team Ryan Fonseca, reporterAndrew Campa, Sunday reporterKevinisha Walker, multiplatform editorHunter Clauss, multiplatform editorChristian Orozco, assistant editorKarim Doumar, head of newsletters Check our top stories, topics and the latest articles on
Los Angeles Times
09-04-2025
- Business
- Los Angeles Times
As Trump's trade war ramps up, what are Californians worried about? Let us know
Good morning. Here's what you need to know to start your day. President Trump's torrent of tariffs continues to tank the stock market as Wall Street reacts to an uncertain financial future amid an escalating trade war. Trump announced last week that the U.S. would slap a universal 10% tariff on imported goods from all foreign countries, in addition to existing tariffs imposed on Mexico, Canada and China. Some nations face higher rates, including the European Union and India. China and other countries have retaliated with tariffs of their own, which led Trump on Tuesday to threaten a 104% tariff on Chinese products beginning today (I'm writing this Tuesday, so you'll know better than me if that actually happened). What does all that mean for California? In short, higher prices and increased uncertainty given the volatile nature of Trump's actions so far. At the Sacramento level, Gov. Gavin Newsom is pursuing side deals with international trading partners and distancing California's economic policies from what's coming out of the White House. 'California is a stable trading partner and we hope you consider that as it relates to California-made products,' Newsom said in a video message aimed at international businesses posted to Bluesky. The trade war is also expected to cause pain at Los Angeles County's major ports, my colleague Laurence Darmiento reported. 'With Trump's across-the-board 10% tariffs worldwide and higher 'reciprocal' tariffs imposed on a number of Asian trading partners, economists say it's likely that one of the key drivers of the Los Angeles-area economy — trade — will be hit hard,' he wrote. Economists are on 'Recession Watch' For economist Clement Bohr, the uncertainty from an unpredictable federal government is the biggest problem. 'Nobody knows what is going to happen from one day to the next,' he said. 'That can be very destructive for the state of the economy.' Bohr is an assistant professor at UCLA and economist with the university's Anderson Forecast, which issued a 'Recession Watch' last month. It's like the flash flood watch we're used to seeing from the National Weather Service, but for a possible economic disaster. Bohr told me that he and fellow economists were paying attention to three specific actions from the Trump administration they worry could spiral into a recession — all Trump campaign promises: major tariffs on foreign goods, the 'largest deportation operation in American history' and the chainsaw approach of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency. 'If he's actually able to implement all these things … that's a recipe for a recession,' Bohr said, 'because each of the policies are going to contract a different sector of the economy and together it's going to spill over to the broader economy.' Deportations and DOGE have been held in check to some extent, he said, but Trump's tariffs are a different story. 'They completely blew through the roof with the magnitude [that exceeded] expectations,' he said. 'Now … economic policy makers and economic forecasters are concerned that this tariff policy alone could lead the U.S. to be in a recession. That's what we're all trying to figure out at the moment.' So what should average Californians be worried about or bracing for right now? Bohr urged consumers not to overreact in the moment, since the stock market itself is reactive and policies can change. 'The main point for the average consumer today is to expect that prices are going to be more expensive for a lot of the everyday items that they will be buying,' he told me. 'They will effectively be poorer over the next year or so because the prices for their everyday goods are going to be higher.' I'll share more from my conversation with Bohr later this week — and I hope to hear from you too. Yes, you, reading this right now, worried or wondering about how Trump's tariffs and other economic policies will affect your life in the Golden State. What questions do you have about the tariffs and the fallout from them? Are you worried about a recession? If so, why and what are you doing to prepare? Maybe you're already feeling the impact and want to share your story. Let us know by taking this survey. You could see your experience or questions highlighted in upcoming editions of Essential California. Californians see undocumented immigrants as essential to the economy, a poll finds Schiff's first Senate bill proposes tax credit for hardening homes against fire, disasters Broadcast television is in trouble. Stations are asking Washington for help What else is going on Get unlimited access to the Los Angeles Times. Subscribe here. Canadian snowbirds love Palm Springs. But Trump is making them say: Sorry! We're leaving. The Coachella Valley has long been a favorite destination for Canadian snowbirds, who pump millions of dollars into the local economy every year. Now, its desert towns are bracing for a major financial blow as northerners — citing Trump's aggression toward Canada — cancel flights, ditch hotel and Airbnb reservations, and put their second homes up for sale. Other must-reads How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@ Going out Staying in Email us at essentialcalifornia@ and your response might appear in the newsletter this week. Show us your favorite place in California! Send us photos you have taken of spots in California that are special — natural or human-made — and tell us why they're important to you. Today's great photo is from Times food columnist Jenn Harris at Dodger Stadium, where several new food items are on the menu, including the $40 forearm-long hot dog. Have a great day, from the Essential California team Ryan Fonseca, reporterAndrew Campa, Sunday reporterKevinisha Walker, multiplatform editorHunter Clauss, multiplatform editorChristian Orozco, assistant editorKarim Doumar, head of newsletters Check our top stories, topics and the latest articles on
Yahoo
19-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's policies might cause a deep recession and stagflation, study says
President Donald Trump's policies on trade, government employment and immigration will cause an unnecessary economic recession if they're fully or almost fully enacted, while also boosting inflation, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast. While there is no immediate sign of one, the Trump administration should be warned that 'if all your wishes come true, you could very well be the author of a deep recession,' Clement Bohr, an economist for the organization, wrote on its website. 'And it may not simply be a standard recession that is being chaperoned into existence, but a stagflation.' Recent economic indicators have been choppy, with consumption and the labor market holding up, but with indicators of sentiment cratering as increased uncertainty may prompt companies to hold off on fresh investments. Much-higher tariffs will make it much more costly for American manufacturers to produce because of highly integrated cross-border supply chains, Bohr said. This will make some operations uneconomical. Retail and agriculture will also likely contract. The construction sector is particularly vulnerable to the Trump administration's mass deportations because it relies heavily on immigrant labor, the forecast says. Historical data shows that past waves of deportations going back to the 19th century have led to reduced employment for the rest of the population. The changes will boost both costs and prices, adding to inflation even as economic growth slows. And if the Trump administration succeeds in influencing monetary policy decisions, the Federal Reserve may be left without tools to contain rising prices. And efforts by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency to cut the federal workforce — including contractors and grant recipients — by 10% to 15% will lead to up to one million people losing their jobs, the largest single layoff event in U.S. history, Bohr wrote. The sector usually serves as a stabilizer for the labor market and broader economy. For the latest news, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
