As Trump's trade war ramps up, what are Californians worried about? Let us know
Good morning. Here's what you need to know to start your day.
President Trump's torrent of tariffs continues to tank the stock market as Wall Street reacts to an uncertain financial future amid an escalating trade war.
Trump announced last week that the U.S. would slap a universal 10% tariff on imported goods from all foreign countries, in addition to existing tariffs imposed on Mexico, Canada and China. Some nations face higher rates, including the European Union and India.
China and other countries have retaliated with tariffs of their own, which led Trump on Tuesday to threaten a 104% tariff on Chinese products beginning today (I'm writing this Tuesday, so you'll know better than me if that actually happened).
What does all that mean for California?
In short, higher prices and increased uncertainty given the volatile nature of Trump's actions so far.
At the Sacramento level, Gov. Gavin Newsom is pursuing side deals with international trading partners and distancing California's economic policies from what's coming out of the White House.
'California is a stable trading partner and we hope you consider that as it relates to California-made products,' Newsom said in a video message aimed at international businesses posted to Bluesky.
The trade war is also expected to cause pain at Los Angeles County's major ports, my colleague Laurence Darmiento reported.
'With Trump's across-the-board 10% tariffs worldwide and higher 'reciprocal' tariffs imposed on a number of Asian trading partners, economists say it's likely that one of the key drivers of the Los Angeles-area economy — trade — will be hit hard,' he wrote.
Economists are on 'Recession Watch'
For economist Clement Bohr, the uncertainty from an unpredictable federal government is the biggest problem.
'Nobody knows what is going to happen from one day to the next,' he said. 'That can be very destructive for the state of the economy.'
Bohr is an assistant professor at UCLA and economist with the university's Anderson Forecast, which issued a 'Recession Watch' last month. It's like the flash flood watch we're used to seeing from the National Weather Service, but for a possible economic disaster.
Bohr told me that he and fellow economists were paying attention to three specific actions from the Trump administration they worry could spiral into a recession — all Trump campaign promises: major tariffs on foreign goods, the 'largest deportation operation in American history' and the chainsaw approach of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency.
'If he's actually able to implement all these things … that's a recipe for a recession,' Bohr said, 'because each of the policies are going to contract a different sector of the economy and together it's going to spill over to the broader economy.'
Deportations and DOGE have been held in check to some extent, he said, but Trump's tariffs are a different story.
'They completely blew through the roof with the magnitude [that exceeded] expectations,' he said. 'Now … economic policy makers and economic forecasters are concerned that this tariff policy alone could lead the U.S. to be in a recession. That's what we're all trying to figure out at the moment.'
So what should average Californians be worried about or bracing for right now?
Bohr urged consumers not to overreact in the moment, since the stock market itself is reactive and policies can change.
'The main point for the average consumer today is to expect that prices are going to be more expensive for a lot of the everyday items that they will be buying,' he told me. 'They will effectively be poorer over the next year or so because the prices for their everyday goods are going to be higher.'
I'll share more from my conversation with Bohr later this week — and I hope to hear from you too. Yes, you, reading this right now, worried or wondering about how Trump's tariffs and other economic policies will affect your life in the Golden State.
What questions do you have about the tariffs and the fallout from them? Are you worried about a recession? If so, why and what are you doing to prepare? Maybe you're already feeling the impact and want to share your story.
Let us know by taking this survey. You could see your experience or questions highlighted in upcoming editions of Essential California.
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What else is going on
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Canadian snowbirds love Palm Springs. But Trump is making them say: Sorry! We're leaving. The Coachella Valley has long been a favorite destination for Canadian snowbirds, who pump millions of dollars into the local economy every year. Now, its desert towns are bracing for a major financial blow as northerners — citing Trump's aggression toward Canada — cancel flights, ditch hotel and Airbnb reservations, and put their second homes up for sale.
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Ryan Fonseca, reporterAndrew Campa, Sunday reporterKevinisha Walker, multiplatform editorHunter Clauss, multiplatform editorChristian Orozco, assistant editorKarim Doumar, head of newsletters
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