Latest news with #BehnamBenTaleblu
The National
19 hours ago
- Politics
- The National
Iran's missile launchers forced to pull back from danger zone
Israeli air strikes in western Iran have forced Tehran to move its ballistic missiles to central areas to avoid destruction. In doing so, three of its weapons have been left unable to reach targets within Israel. Besides the 20-missile barrage that struck an Israeli hospital on Thursday, Iran has been unable to mount large-scale or effective strikes. The military has been forced to fire from the Isfahan area of central Iran, about 1,600km from Israeli targets. Its more advanced missiles, the Fatah-1 and Haj Qasem, would now fall short with a range of only 1,400km, as well as the Kheibar Shekan, which can reach distances of 1,450km. The Fatah-1 has been touted as a hypersonic missile with the capability to fly at very high speeds – approaching 18,600kph – while being able to manoeuvre mid-flight, making them difficult to intercept. Liquid missiles These missiles are also the more precise medium-range weapons and, being solid fuel, are easier to transport, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iranian-American analyst based in the US. 'Iran doesn't have many medium-range ballistic missiles on the higher end of the range cap that are solid fuel, so they are now using the liquid-fuel ones,' he said. Liquid-fuel missiles are less accurate and take more time to launch because they have to be filled with propellant on-site as transporting them already fuelled is too dangerous. 'That makes them more vulnerable to launch and that's why the Israelis have had a lot of success as you can actually spot these things being launched. You can destroy them there before they even take off,' Mr Ben Taleblu added. Launchers down The situation further deteriorated for the Tehran regime after Israeli claims that it has destroyed half of all its launchers and up to 40 per cent of its missile stockpile. Iran is now left with using the Emad (1,700km range) and Ghadr (1,950km range) weapons, which use liquid fuel and are vulnerable and difficult to transport. At 2,000km, the solid-fuelled Sejjil-1 has the greatest range and was used in a solitary attack for the first time on Wednesday, which 'may reflect Iran's need to launch longer-range missiles from deeper inside Iranian territory', the Institute for the Study of War think tank said in a report. 'Iran has recently used fewer missiles to attack Israel because it is having difficulty co-ordinating large attacks on Israel, not because Iran is conserving its remaining ballistic missile stockpile,' it added. In its first retaliation attack responding to Israel's surprise operation on Friday last week, Iran fired 200 missiles, followed by 75 the next day and 94 on Sunday, which in total resulted in 24 Israeli civilian deaths. But on Monday it managed only 22, another 47 on Tuesday, one on Wednesday, before Thursday's 20-rocket barrage. Furthermore, Israel has targeted ballistic missile factories to prevent Iran from replenishing its dwindling stockpile. Analysts believe Iran will now be reluctant to use up its remaining long-range stockpile unless it comes to view the conflict with Israel as an existential threat. Mr Ben Taleblu argued that Iran's missile stockpile was now probably below 1,000, as Tehran 'needs to preserve something in terms of their capability and capacity to defend the regime in their mind, in a post-conflict scenario'.
Sky News AU
2 days ago
- Politics
- Sky News AU
Iran's threats attempt to deter American involvement amid 15-tonne bomb scare
FDD Iran Program Senior Director Behnam Ben Taleblu has weighed in on the power needed to destroy Iran's nuclear facility. According to reports, a 15-tonne 'bunker buster' bomb is needed to destroy the last nuclear facility in Iran, which the US would need to provide Israel with. 'Already you have Iranian officials as well as Iranian government-linked social media channels threatening to widen the war,' Mr Taleblu told Sky News Digital Presenter Gabriella Power. 'Before American entry, these threats of widening the war were designed to deter American involvement and raise the cost of that involvement.'
Forbes
2 days ago
- Politics
- Forbes
Trump Is 'Keeping His Cards Very Close To The Chest': Expert Talks US Role In Israel-Iran Conflict
Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Director of the FDD's Iran program, joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss the continuing attacks between Israel and Iran, plus what President Donald Trump's recent comments indicate about the role of the United States in the conflict. Watch the full interview above.
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Israel-Iran conflict: This number could define the outcome
The battle between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the Middle East's most defining confrontations in decades, and the fate of the conflict may hinge on a deceptively simple number: how many medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) Iran has left. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now According to Israeli military data and independent expert estimates, Iran has fired around 700 MRBMs at Israel over the past 14 months, including more than 380 in just the last six days. That leaves Tehran's remaining stockpile somewhere between 300 and 1,300 missiles, depending on who you ask—a wide range that underscores just how murky and consequential the numbers game has become. A war of attrition and estimation The Iranian arsenal has been battered not only by its own usage but also by Israel's relentless six-day aerial assault. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) claim to have taken out at least a third of Iran's MRBM launchers, directly impacting Tehran's ability to sustain long-range attacks. "If these launch estimates hold, Iran's deterrence capabilities are hanging by a thread," CNN quoted Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the foundation for the defense of democracies. He warns that Iran's missile stockpile may soon drop "below four digits"—a psychological and strategic red line for the Islamic Republic. Taleblu noted that Iran's missile strategy relies heavily on overwhelming quantity rather than cutting-edge technology. "For the Islamic Republic, quantity has a quality of its own," he said. "Losing that quantity threatens their entire warfighting doctrine." Cracks in Iran's defense and production Damage to Iran's infrastructure may be even more severe than previously acknowledged. UK chief of the defence staff admiral Tony Radakin revealed in December that 100 Israeli aircraft launched a devastating barrage that nearly wiped out Iran's air defense network and its ballistic missile production capabilities—for a full year. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Israeli intelligence further claims that strikes earlier this year destroyed key facilities responsible for missile motor production, severely disrupting Iran's supply chain. However, experts caution that foreign support, especially from China, could help Iran recover and rebuild its production lines faster than expected. Despite this, conflicting narratives persist. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently claimed Iran could ramp up production to 300 missiles a month, theoretically reaching 20,000 missiles in six years. But he offered no concrete evidence for the claim, prompting skepticism from analysts. Running on empty—or playing possum? Iran has so far refused to disclose its actual missile count. But according to Dr Eyal Pinko, a former Israeli naval intelligence officer and current fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center, the current estimate ranges between 700 and 800 MRBMs left, factoring in recent launches and confirmed losses. For Tehran, this situation is precarious. Iran is not known for conventional warfighting prowess, and it historically leans on its missile arsenal as both deterrent and diplomatic leverage. If its MRBM supply dips too low, Iran could be forced into negotiations from a position of weakness—or escalate the conflict in desperation. As Israeli airpower continues to pound Iranian positions, the war appears to be shifting from a contest of ideologies to one of inventory. In this war of missiles, every launch narrows Tehran's strategic options—and may ultimately determine whether the conflict burns out or blows up.
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First Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Inside Fordow, the heart of Iran's nuclear programme that's hidden deep inside a mountain
The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel has put a spotlight on Tehran's nuclear facilities, namely the Fordow nuclear plant, which the Jewish nation wants to destroy. However, this is easier said than done. This facility is buried deep underground, making it almost indestructible to any Israeli weapon read more Last Friday (June 13), when Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the Islamic Republic's nuclear weapons and existing ballistic missiles were the primary targets of the operation. The goal was to end the 'existential threat' Israel faces from Iran. And in this quest, the Jewish nation has been targeting multiple nuclear facilities in Iran, barring one — the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which is located about 100 miles south of Tehran near the city of Qom. In fact, Fordow is one of the two nuclear enrichment sites in the country. The other, in Natanz , has been reportedly partially destroyed in the ongoing conflict. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Many Iran watchers note that Fordow is a symbol of the country's defiance as well as its technological ingenuity. As Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a US think-tank told the Financial Times, 'Fordow is the be-all and end-all of Iran's nuclear operation.' But what makes Fordow such a critical site? Why does Israel seek to disable Fordow? And why is that almost mission impossible for the Jewish nation? What is Iran's Fordow plant? Located close to the holy city of Qom, the Fordow plant is a fortress built deep within the mountains — up to 300 feet underground. Its existence was first made public known in 2009. The location was originally part of a missile base controlled by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In fact, when the finding of Fordow was made public, Iran earned a rare rebuke from Russia as well as a warning from China — both considered allies of Tehran. According to Iranian documents stolen by Israeli intelligence, the main halls at Fordow are an estimated 80 to 90 metres (around 262 to 295 feet) beneath the ground — making it safe and almost unreachable to any weapon possessed by Israel. Today, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Fordow houses 2,700 centrifuges and has been enriching uranium to 60 per cent — a technical step away from the 90 per cent needed for nuclear weapons. According to the ISIS think tank, 'Iran can convert its current stock of 60 per cent enriched uranium into 233 kg of weapon-grade uranium in three weeks at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant,' enough for nine nuclear weapons. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Many analysts note that Fordow is Iran's symbol of its nuclear ambitions. As Brett McGurk, who has served as Middle East coordinator for several American presidents, was quoted as telling New York Times, 'If you don't get Fordow, you haven't eliminated their ability to produce weapons-grade material.' What makes Fordow so impenetrable? Hidden deep inside a mountain helps keep Fordow away from Israeli weapons. Believed to be between 80 and 300 feet underground, Fordow is well beyond the reach of conventional bombs and munitions. 'The Iranians fully understood that the Israelis would try to get inside their programmes and they built Fordow inside of a mountain a long time ago to take care of the post-Iraq problem' presented by the 1981 strike, Vali Nasr, an Iran expert who is a professor at Johns Hopkins University, told the New York Times. The Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in central Iran. Fordow is a highly secretive and heavily guarded facility first made public in 2009. Reuters Moreover, Fordow is protected by surface-to-air missiles, including Russia's S-300 system, and has been reinforced to survive sustained bombardment. 'Tehran has made sure the facility can survive airstrike attacks, making Fordow a much harder target than the other facilities that have been hit through the years,' said Nicholas Carl, a research manager at the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project, as per the NY Post. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In fact, a March report from the UK-based Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) think tank noted that destroying Fordow from the air would be almost impossible for Israel and would require significant firepower and assistance from the United States. What Israel needs to destroy Fordow? Israeli officials have said that the destruction of Fordow is vital to stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions. 'The entire operation… really has to be completed with the elimination of Fordow,' Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter said. But this is easier said than done. This is because Israel doesn't have the weaponry to attack deep into the earth; only the US is in possession of such weaponry — the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator , which can only be dropped using a large aircraft, the B-2 stealth bombers, a US-made plane. The GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri. This is the only weapon that could take out the Fordow nuclear plant. File image/AP Also known as a bunker-busting bomb, the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator is 20 feet long and 30,000 pounds heavy. The warhead case is made from a special high performance steel alloy and its design allows for a large explosive payload while maintaining the integrity of the penetrator case during impact. It also possesses the ability to penetrate as deep as 61 metres into the ground. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD But a report by Rusi notes that even the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator would not be enough. The report reads, 'Even the GBU-57/B would likely require multiple impacts at the same aiming point to have a good chance of penetrating the facility.' However, some analysts believe that there are other ways to destroy Fordow. CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton, a former US Air Force colonel, said, 'Israel could probably destroy the tunnel entrances pretty far back, and certainly destroy the ventilation system,' he said. 'If you destroyed (the tunnels) and the electric electrical supply, it would be months before they could really operate.' It seems as of now the Fordow conundrum remains for Israel — the nuclear mountain will continue to haunt the Jewish nation. With inputs from agencies
