Israel-Iran conflict: This number could define the outcome

The battle between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the Middle East's most defining confrontations in decades, and the fate of the conflict may hinge on a deceptively simple number: how many medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) Iran has left.
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According to Israeli military data and independent expert estimates, Iran has fired around 700 MRBMs at Israel over the past 14 months, including more than 380 in just the last six days. That leaves Tehran's remaining stockpile somewhere between 300 and 1,300 missiles, depending on who you ask—a wide range that underscores just how murky and consequential the numbers game has become.
A war of attrition and estimation
The Iranian arsenal has been battered not only by its own usage but also by Israel's relentless six-day aerial assault.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) claim to have taken out at least a third of Iran's MRBM launchers, directly impacting Tehran's ability to sustain long-range attacks.
"If these launch estimates hold, Iran's deterrence capabilities are hanging by a thread," CNN quoted Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the foundation for the defense of democracies. He warns that Iran's missile stockpile may soon drop "below four digits"—a psychological and strategic red line for the Islamic Republic.
Taleblu noted that Iran's missile strategy relies heavily on overwhelming quantity rather than cutting-edge technology. "For the Islamic Republic, quantity has a quality of its own," he said. "Losing that quantity threatens their entire warfighting doctrine."
Cracks in Iran's defense and production
Damage to Iran's infrastructure may be even more severe than previously acknowledged. UK chief of the defence staff admiral Tony Radakin revealed in December that 100 Israeli aircraft launched a devastating barrage that nearly wiped out Iran's air defense network and its ballistic missile production capabilities—for a full year.
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Israeli intelligence further claims that strikes earlier this year destroyed key facilities responsible for missile motor production, severely disrupting Iran's supply chain. However, experts caution that foreign support, especially from China, could help Iran recover and rebuild its production lines faster than expected.
Despite this, conflicting narratives persist. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently claimed Iran could ramp up production to 300 missiles a month, theoretically reaching 20,000 missiles in six years.
But he offered no concrete evidence for the claim, prompting skepticism from analysts.
Running on empty—or playing possum?
Iran has so far refused to disclose its actual missile count. But according to Dr Eyal Pinko, a former Israeli naval intelligence officer and current fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center, the current estimate ranges between 700 and 800 MRBMs left, factoring in recent launches and confirmed losses.
For Tehran, this situation is precarious.
Iran is not known for conventional warfighting prowess, and it historically leans on its missile arsenal as both deterrent and diplomatic leverage. If its MRBM supply dips too low, Iran could be forced into negotiations from a position of weakness—or escalate the conflict in desperation.
As Israeli airpower continues to pound Iranian positions, the war appears to be shifting from a contest of ideologies to one of inventory. In this war of missiles, every launch narrows Tehran's strategic options—and may ultimately determine whether the conflict burns out or blows up.

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