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CBC
13 hours ago
- Politics
- CBC
What questions do you have about the conflict between Israel and Iran?
Social Sharing You've got smart questions, we've got solid answers. Click here to listen to the CBC's Just Asking every Saturday at 4 p.m. when you need to make sense of the world around you. Let your friend Saroja Coelho be your guide. With guest experts, Just Asking turns the week's news and latest trends into tips that help you make better decisions in your life. Whether it's tech, money, career or health — we'll hear you out, and help you out. The show takes live calls on CBC Radio every Saturday afternoon, and drops the podcast that same evening. Here's what's happening this Saturday: What questions do you have about the conflict between Israel and Iran? Israel launched attacks on the heart of Iran's nuclear and military structure on Friday, killing at least three top military officers. Iran has launched a counter strike firing hundred of ballistic missiles toward Israel. As we watch this developing story, our experts will share their analysis and answer your questions on the conflict. Dennis Horak was Canada's ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Yemen from 2015 to 2018. Alex Vatanka is the Director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, a non-partisan think tank providing expert policy analysis on the answer your questions. What questions do you have about imposter syndrome? Have you ever felt like a fraud at work, plagued by self-doubt? Our experts we'll dive into why so many of us feel "imposter syndrome," what to do about it, and what employers can do to create more supportive work environments. Kim Meninger is a leadership coach who has her own story of imposter syndrome that fuels her work. Kevin Cokley is a professor of psychology at the University of Michigan and the editor of "The Impostor Phenomenon." They'll take your questions!
Time Magazine
a day ago
- Politics
- Time Magazine
Where Iran's Nuclear Program Goes From Here
Deep beneath the Zagros Mountains in central Iran, in a labyrinth of fortified tunnels outside the city of Natanz, centrifuges spun at speeds too fast for the eye to track. The cascade of machines, arranged in long halls and shielded by concrete and steel, have been central to Iran's most sensitive nuclear work, and, until recently, largely immune to airstrikes. But this month Israeli warplanes penetrated Iranian airspace and struck multiple nuclear sites, including underground facilities thought to be untouchable. While the full extent of the damage remains murky, satellite imagery and initial damage assessments by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicate that the strikes on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility were particularly effective, knocking out the electricity to the underground area. The Israeli strikes also blew up the uneasy nuclear status quo that existed in the Middle East for years while raising a daunting question: What happens if Iran decides that the only true deterrent is to build a bomb? For over a decade, Tehran has operated just below the threshold of nuclear breakout capability. But this spring it abandoned that restraint. The IAEA reported in May that Iran had accumulated roughly 120 kg of uranium enriched to 60%—dangerously close to weapons-grade levels of 90%—and enough to build 22 nuclear bombs within five months if further enriched. At the same time, Iran began building a third enrichment hall on top of the two already in use. U.S. officials saw it as a provocation; Israel viewed it as a casus belli. The military strikes Israel launched on June 13 were swift, surgical, and calibrated. Israeli officials described them as a pre-emptive operation to cripple Iran's ability to build a nuclear weapon by targeting its main enrichment sites, nuclear scientists, and military officials. But while the strikes appear to have disrupted Iran's enrichment operations, it retains scientific expertise and stockpiled material, and now possesses a stronger incentive to bury its program even deeper. 'If Iran survives the conflict, they could decide that a nuclear weapon is the only way to have deterrence,' says Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. Iran could attempt a dash for a nuclear weapon at one of its remaining sites. One, at Fordo, is buried so deeply in mountains near the city of Qom that only the U.S.'s most powerful bunker-busting bomb—the 30,000-lb. GBU-57—is believed capable of reaching it. The threat underscores the collapse of diplomatic efforts to constrain Iran's program. 'Trying to get to a deal now is infinitely harder than it used to be,' says Richard Nephew, who worked on Iran sanctions in the Obama Administration. Others are more hopeful about the outcome of the war. Says Matt Kroenig of the Atlantic Council: 'We were on the verge of Iran becoming a nuclear power and it looks like now we've set that threat into the future.'
Arab News
5 days ago
- Politics
- Arab News
Israel's goal might be regime change in Iran: Experts
CHICAGO: Israel's military assault against Iran could continue for weeks, with the possible goal of regime change, a panel of experts hosted by the Middle East Institute said on Saturday. Panelists included retired Gen. Joseph L. Votel, former commander of US Central Command; retired Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, former commander of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet; and Alex Vatanka, MEI senior fellow and Iran specialist who also teaches at the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio. Vatanka said it is too early to determine if Israel's main goal besides crippling Iran's nuclear program is regime change, but 'we might be going in (that) direction.' He added: 'That's certainly what I think a majority of Iranian officials think that Israel wants. The big unknown in all of this is whether the Israelis somehow can get (US President Donald) Trump to buy into it the way he bought into the initial attack on Iran.' Israel has launched attacks against an array of Iranian targets, including its military leadership and nuclear program. Tehran has responded by launching missiles and drones at Israel. The panelists were in agreement in their belief that the conflict would not expand to include other countries. Iran's leadership will define victory as being its 'survival,' Vatanka said, adding that while Israel has the backing of the US and 'most of Europe,' Tehran 'isn't getting any help from anyone.' He said: 'I don't think they're getting help from what's left of the axis of resistance … I question what the axis of resistance members can actually do at this point.' Its members include Hamas and Hezbollah, which have been severely weakened by Israel's military, and the Houthis in Yemen. It included Syria until the fall of President Bashar Assad in December. Donegan said: 'I think the question is, does Iran think they've done enough in terms of lashing back that they can throw an olive branch to get some talks going again? I think it's a long shot, to be honest, that they'll come to the table in the near future.' Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, but 'the problem with closing Hormuz is they then don't get the economic benefit of flowing their oil out,' he added. The end game will be defined by how far Israel intends to go with its war, the panelists said. 'The Americans are playing the good cop here. President Trump has kept the door for diplomacy open,' Vatanka said. 'The Israelis are playing the bad cop, saying, 'If you don't give Trump what he wants then we'll come after you.''
The National
28-04-2025
- Business
- The National
Iran port blast: What it means for the country's economy and the oil market
An explosion in a port city in southern Iran on Saturday rocked Shahid Rajaee port in Bandar Abbas, disrupting one of the country's key shipping and trading arteries and adding to the oil exporter's significant economic pressures. Fires were still blazing on Sunday after an explosion tore through Iran's largest commercial port at Bandar Abbas the day before, killing at least 28 people and leaving hundreds injured. The strategic port is the country's biggest and one of its most strategic assets. In 2024, it handled 85 per cent of Iran's shipping container traffic, according to the Port and Maritime Organisation. The port is strategically located on the northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of all oil trade passes and is vital for international trade. The state-owned National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company said in a statement the explosion 'has no connection' to its facilities, reporting no interruption to its work in Bandar Abbas. Bandar Abbas, the capital of Hormozgan province, is Iran's main southern port city and is vital to the global oil industry. 'Shahid Rajaee Port is Iran's largest and most significant maritime hub, often referred to as the 'Golden Gateway' of Iran's trade. The port connects with 80 major international ports via 35 top container shipping lines,' said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. The hub for container shipments, covering 2,400 hectares, handles 70 million tonnes of cargo per year, including oil and general shipping. It has nearly 500,000 square metres of warehouses and 35 shipping berths. With a capacity of 100 million tonnes of cargo annually, including 6 million TEU containers, it manages about 55 per cent of Iran's total cargo operations. The port features 40 berths, supports more than 4,000 vessels and also offers logistics, industrial and free-zone advantages. The significance of the port means the disruption may have broader economic and security implications for Iran and for regional trade routes. The explosion comes as Iran's economy struggles, as US President Donald Trump's administration presses on with its 'maximum pressure' campaign against Tehran with a new round of sanctions to curtail its revenue. Iran's economic growth is projected to flatline to 0.3 per cent in 2025, down from 3.5 per cent in 2024, an International Monetary Fund report said. It is forecast to expand 1.1 per cent next year. 'The explosion at Shahid Rajaee Port in Bandar Abbas – Iran's largest commercial port – will have an immediate and severe impact on Iran's economy,' said Dean Mikkelsen, independent maritime, energy and security analyst. 'Its shutdown disrupts the flow of goods, deepening Iran's economic isolation at a time when it is already under significant sanctions pressure.' The port explosion come at a time when new US sanctions on Iran are seeking to curb the country's oil exports. 'Critically, the port also supports infrastructure related to Iran's oil exports, including operations tied to Iran's 'dark fleet' – a network of ships that covertly export Iranian crude oil by disabling AIS systems and conducting ship-to-ship transfers,' Mr Mikkelsen said. Iran's oil exports provide its government with an estimated revenue of $50 billion to $55 billion annually, which helps to fund essential state services and stabilise the economy. "Any 'nterruption, even temporary, threatens Iran's financial stability," Mr 'ikkelsen said. "A pr'longed closure would force Iran to reroute trade through smaller, less efficient ports, increasing costs and risking further bottlenecks." Ira', the third largest producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), extracts about 3.3 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), or about 3 per cent of global output. While the Strait of Hormuz remains open after the explosion at nearby logistics hub of Shahid Rajaee Port, the incident raises the risks for regional shipping, analysts say. The incident has 'the potential of driving up insurance premiums and forcing some vessels to reroute to safer ports in the UAE or Saudi Arabia, increasing transit times and costs', Mr Mikkelsen said. 'While the immediate impact may be contained regionally, the broader effect is a further tightening of global supply chains, with delays and cost increases rippling across industries.' This comes at a time when global trade is projected to slow down due to the US tariffs regime imposed by the Trump administration. 'This added disruption could deepen supply bottlenecks and drive up costs for consumers and businesses worldwide,' he said. The World Trade Organisation on April 16 said that following a strong performance in 2024, global trade is now facing headwinds from a surge in tariffs and rising trade policy uncertainty. The volume of global merchandise trade is projected to decline by 0.2 per cent in 2025 – almost three percentage points lower than it would have been without the recent policy shifts. A modest recovery of 2.5 per cent is expected in 2026, the WTO said in its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report. With tariffs-induced economic uncertainty, the added disruption to critical shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea has the potential to push transport and energy costs higher, Mr Mikkelsen said. 'If businesses face rising shipping and fuel costs, those expenses are likely to be passed on to consumers, amplifying inflationary pressures triggered initially by the tariffs,' he said. 'The port explosion compounds existing vulnerabilities by increasing the risk of prolonged inflation and supply chain instability.' The port blast came as Iranian and US delegations met in Oman for high-level talks on Tehran's nuclear programme on Saturday, with both sides reporting progress. While Iranian authorities so far appear to be treating the blast as an accident, it comes against the backdrop of years of shadow war with regional foe Israel. 'The significance of this incident and its human costs is very high,' said Mahdi Ghodsi, economist at The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies. 'Any evidence regarding its initial cause is crucial at this sensitive moment, coinciding exactly with Iran's third round of negotiations with the US. 'If this incident was accidental, it highlights poor government effectiveness and a political system unable to provide the necessary security services. 'Alternatively, if this incident involved foreign intervention, it could exacerbate tensions and derail the negotiations by shifting the focus away from nuclear issues to regional issues, thereby jeopardising these talks that are solely designed to be on nuclear issues.'
The National
27-04-2025
- Business
- The National
Iran port blast: What it means for the country's economy and global oil
An explosion in a port city in southern Iran on Saturday rocked Shahid Rajaee port in Bandar Abbas, disrupting one of the country's key shipping and trading arteries and adding to the oil exporter's significant economic pressures. Fires were still blazing on Sunday after an explosion tore through Iran's largest commercial port at Bandar Abbas the day before, killing at least 28 people and leaving hundreds more injured. The strategic port is the country's biggest and one of its most strategic assets. In 2024, it handled 85 per cent of Iran's shipping container traffic, according to the Port and Maritime Organisation. The port is strategically located on the northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of all oil trade passes and is vital for international trade. The state-owned National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company said in a statement the explosion "has no connection" to its facilities, reporting no interruption to its work in Bandar Abbas. Bandar Abbas, the capital of Hormozgan province, is Iran's main southern port city and is vital to the global oil industry. "Shahid Rajaee Port is Iran's largest and most significant maritime hub, often referred to as the 'Golden Gateway' of Iran's trade. The port connects with 80 major international ports via 35 top container shipping lines," Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said. The facility for container shipments, covering 2,400 hectares, handles 70 million tonnes of cargo per year, including oil and general shipping. It has nearly 500,000 square meters of warehouses and 35 shipping berths. With a capacity of 100 million tonnes of cargo annually, including 6 million TEU containers, it manages around 55 per cent of Iran's total cargo operations. The port features 40 berths, supports more than 4,000 vessels and it also offers logistics, industrial, and free-zone advantages. The significance of the port means the disruptions may have broader economic and security implications for Iran and for regional trade routes. The attacks come amid a weakening economy, as US President Donald Trump's administration presses on with its 'maximum pressure' campaign against Tehran with a new round of sanctions to curtail its revenue. Iran's economic growth is projected to flatline to 0.3 per cent in 2025, down from 3.5 per cent in 2024, the International Monetary Fund said in a report in April. It is forecast to expand 1.1 per cent next year. "The explosion at Shahid Rajaee Port in Bandar Abbas–Iran's largest commercial port – will have an immediate and severe impact on Iran's economy," Dean Mikkelsen, independent maritime, energy and security analyst, said. "Its shutdown disrupts the flow of goods, deepening Iran's economic isolation at a time when it is already under significant sanctions pressure." The port attacks come at a time when new US sanctions on Iran are seeking to curb the country's oil exports. "Critically, the port also supports infrastructure related to Iran's oil exports, including operations tied to Iran's 'dark fleet' – a network of ships that covertly export Iranian crude oil by disabling AIS systems and conducting ship-to-ship transfers," Mr Mikkelsen said. Iran's oil exports provide its government with an estimated revenue of $50 billion to $55 billion annually, which helps to fund essential state services and stabilise the economy. "Any interruption, even temporary, threatens Iran's financial stability," Mr Mikkelsen said. "A prolonged closure would force Iran to reroute trade through smaller, less efficient ports, increasing costs and risking further bottlenecks." Iran, the third largest producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), extracts about 3.3 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), or around 3 per cent of global output. While the Strait of Hormuz remains open after the explosion at nearby logistics hub of Shahid Rajaee Port, the attack raises the risks of regional shipping, analysts say. The incident has "the potential of driving up insurance premiums and forcing some vessels to reroute to safer ports in the UAE or Saudi Arabia, increasing transit times and costs," Mr Mikkelsen said. "While the immediate impact may be contained regionally, the broader effect is a further tightening of global supply chains, with delays and cost increases rippling across industries." This comes at a time when global trade is projected to slow down due to the US tariffs regime imposed by the Trump administration. "This added disruption could deepen supply bottlenecks and drive up costs for consumers and businesses worldwide," he said. The World Trade Organisation on April 16 said that following a strong performance in 2024, global trade is now facing headwinds from a surge in tariffs and rising trade policy uncertainty. The volume of global merchandise trade is projected to decline by 0.2 per cent in 2025 – almost three percentage points lower than it would have been without the recent policy shifts. A modest recovery of 2.5 per cent is expected in 2026, the WTO said in its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report. With tariffs-induced economic uncertainty, the added disruption to critical shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea has the potential to push transport and energy costs higher, Mr Mikkelsen said. "If businesses face rising shipping and fuel costs, those expenses are likely to be passed on to consumers, amplifying inflationary pressures triggered initially by the tariffs," he said. "The port explosion compounds existing vulnerabilities by increasing the risk of prolonged inflation and supply chain instability." The port blast came as Iranian and US delegations met in Oman for high-level talks on Tehran's nuclear programme on Saturday, with both sides reporting progress. While Iranian authorities so far appear to be treating the blast as an accident, it comes against the backdrop of years of shadow war with regional foe Israel.
