Where Iran's Nuclear Program Goes From Here
Deep beneath the Zagros Mountains in central Iran, in a labyrinth of fortified tunnels outside the city of Natanz, centrifuges spun at speeds too fast for the eye to track. The cascade of machines, arranged in long halls and shielded by concrete and steel, have been central to Iran's most sensitive nuclear work, and, until recently, largely immune to airstrikes. But this month Israeli warplanes penetrated Iranian airspace and struck multiple nuclear sites, including underground facilities thought to be untouchable.
While the full extent of the damage remains murky, satellite imagery and initial damage assessments by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicate that the strikes on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility were particularly effective, knocking out the electricity to the underground area.
The Israeli strikes also blew up the uneasy nuclear status quo that existed in the Middle East for years while raising a daunting question: What happens if Iran decides that the only true deterrent is to build a bomb?
For over a decade, Tehran has operated just below the threshold of nuclear breakout capability. But this spring it abandoned that restraint. The IAEA reported in May that Iran had accumulated roughly 120 kg of uranium enriched to 60%—dangerously close to weapons-grade levels of 90%—and enough to build 22 nuclear bombs within five months if further enriched. At the same time, Iran began building a third enrichment hall on top of the two already in use. U.S. officials saw it as a provocation; Israel viewed it as a casus belli.
The military strikes Israel launched on June 13 were swift, surgical, and calibrated. Israeli officials described them as a pre-emptive operation to cripple Iran's ability to build a nuclear weapon by targeting its main enrichment sites, nuclear scientists, and military officials.
But while the strikes appear to have disrupted Iran's enrichment operations, it retains scientific expertise and stockpiled material, and now possesses a stronger incentive to bury its program even deeper. 'If Iran survives the conflict, they could decide that a nuclear weapon is the only way to have deterrence,' says Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
Iran could attempt a dash for a nuclear weapon at one of its remaining sites. One, at Fordo, is buried so deeply in mountains near the city of Qom that only the U.S.'s most powerful bunker-busting bomb—the 30,000-lb. GBU-57—is believed capable of reaching it.
The threat underscores the collapse of diplomatic efforts to constrain Iran's program. 'Trying to get to a deal now is infinitely harder than it used to be,' says Richard Nephew, who worked on Iran sanctions in the Obama Administration. Others are more hopeful about the outcome of the war. Says Matt Kroenig of the Atlantic Council: 'We were on the verge of Iran becoming a nuclear power and it looks like now we've set that threat into the future.'
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The Hill
33 minutes ago
- The Hill
Israel, Iran trade strikes as Trump weighs US military involvement
Israel and Iran traded strikes on Friday as President Trump weighs the possibility of U.S. involvement and European officials seek to revive nuclear negotiations with Tehran. Israel said it hit 60 Iranian aircrafts early Friday morning along with the headquarters of the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, which carries out nuclear weapons research, according to the Associated Press. Iranian media said Israel's strikes also hit the city of Rasht on the Caspian Sea early Friday. Reuters reported that at least one Iranian missile struck Beersheba, Israel's largest southern city, early Friday, ripping off the facade of at least one apartment complex and leaving a crater in a residential area. CNN reported it struck close to a tech park that houses a Microsoft office. Iran also struck near civilian sites in Haifa, injuring more than a dozen people and sending residents running for cover in a shopping mall, CNN reported. That followed an Iranian strike on Thursday that struck a hospital in Beersheba, wounding at least 80 patients and medical workers, according to Israeli officials. Israel's defense chief accused Iran of war crimes and said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be held accountable for the attack. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched overnight bombings in the heart of Tehran, along with the cities of Tabriz and Kermanshah, hitting 'missile storage and launch infrastructure components,' according to the AP. 'We are strengthening our air control in the region and advancing our air offensive,' Israeli military spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin told reporters, according to the AP. 'We have more sites to strike in Tehran, western Iran and other places.' Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, met with Britain's foreign secretary on Thursday to discuss diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is slated to meet with European leaders in Geneva to discuss a new nuclear deal. Iran earlier this month rejected U.S. proposals to effectively end its nuclear program, and move enrichment facilities outside the country. The White House on Thursday released a statement from President Trump saying he would decide within two weeks on whether to join Israel's war. Israel is pressuring the U.S. to deploy it's 'bunker buster' bombs on Iran's Fordo uranium enrichment facility, which is key to its nuclear program and buried deep inside a mountain. While Trump has been publicly non-committal on resuming talks with Tehran, Araghci said Thursday the U.S. is pushing for diplomacy behind the scenes. 'It is the Americans who want talks,' he said, according to AP. 'They've sent messages several times — very serious ones — but we made it explicitly clear to them that as long as this aggression and invasion continue, there is absolutely no room for talk or diplomacy. We are engaged in legitimate self-defense, and this defense will not stop under any circumstances.' Earlier this week, Trump urged civilians to evacuate Tehran immediately, as the U.S. ordered a third U.S. Navy destroyer to the eastern portion of the Mediterranean Sea. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking near the damaged Beersheba hospital, said he trusted that Trump would 'do what's best for America.' 'I can tell you that they're already helping a lot,' he added.
Yahoo
44 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Under attack from Israel, Iran's supreme leader faces a stark choice
CAIRO (AP) — Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who crushed internal threats repeatedly during more than three decades in power, now faces his greatest challenge yet. His archenemy, Israel, has secured free rein over Iran's skies and is decimating the country's military leadership and nuclear program with its punishing air campaign. It is also threatening his life: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Khamenei 'cannot continue to exist.' The 86-year-old leader faces a choice. He could escalate Iran's retaliation against Israel and risk even heavier damage from Israeli bombardment. Or he could seek a diplomatic solution that keeps the U.S. out of the conflict, and risk having to give up the nuclear program he has put at the center of Iranian policy for years. In a video address Wednesday he sounded defiant, vowing 'the Iranian nation is not one to surrender' and warning that if the U.S. steps in, it will bring 'irreparable damage to them.' Here's what to know about Khamenei: He transformed the Islamic Republic When he rose to power in 1989, Khamenei had to overcome deep doubts about his authority as he succeeded the leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. A low-level cleric at the time, Khamenei didn't have his predecessor's religious credentials. With his thick glasses and plodding style, he didn't have his fiery charisma either. But Khamenei has ruled three times longer than the late Khomeini and has shaped Iran's Islamic Republic perhaps even more dramatically. He entrenched the system of rule by the 'mullahs," or Shiite Muslim clerics. That secured his place in the eyes of hard-liners as the unquestionable authority — below only that of God. At the same time, Khamenei built the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard into the dominant force in Iran's military and internal politics. The Guard boasts Iran's most elite military and oversees its ballistic missile program. Its international arm, the Quds Force, pieced together the 'Axis of Resistance,' the collection of pro-Iranian proxies stretching from Yemen to Lebanon that for years gave Iran considerable power across the region. Khamenei also gave the Guard a free hand to build a network of businesses allowing it to dominate Iran's economy. In return, the Guard became his loyal shock force. He fended off domestic challenges The first major threat to Khamenei's grip was the reform movement that swept into a parliament majority and the presidency soon after he became supreme leader. The movement advocated for giving greater power to elected officials – something Khamenei's hard-line supporters feared would lead to dismantling the Islamic Republic system. Khamenei stymied the reformists by rallying the clerical establishment. Unelected bodies run by the mullahs succeeded in shutting down major reforms and barring reform candidates from running in elections. The Revolutionary Guard and Iran's other security agencies crushed waves of protests that followed the failure of the reform movement. Huge nationwide protests erupted in 2009 over allegations of vote-rigging. Under the weight of sanctions, economic protests broke out in 2017 and 2019. More nationwide protests broke out in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini after police detained her for not wearing her mandatory headscarf properly. Hundreds were killed in crackdowns on the protests, and hundreds more arrested amid reports of detainees tortured to death or raped in prison. Still, the successive protests showed the strains in Iran's theocratic system and lay bare widespread resentment of clerical rule, corruption and economic troubles. Trying to defuse anger, authorities often eased enforcement of some of the Islamic Republic's social restrictions. He built Iran into a regional power When Khamenei took power, Iran was just emerging from its long war with Iraq that left the country battered and isolated. Over the next three decades, Khamenei turned Iran around into as assertive power wielding influence across the Middle East. One major boost was the U.S.'s 2003 ouster of Saddam Hussein, which eventually brought Iranian-allied Shiite politicians and militias to power in Iraq. Iraq provided a linchpin in Iran's Axis of Resistance, grouping Bashar Assad's Syria, Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Palestinian militant group Hamas and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. By 2015, the alliance was at its height, putting Iran on Israel's doorstep. The past two years brought a dramatic reversal Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel brought massive Israeli retaliation on the Gaza Strip. It also brought a turnaround in Israeli policy. After years of trying to fend off and tamp down Iran's allies, Israel made crushing them its goal. Hamas has been crippled, though not eliminated, even at the cost of the decimation of Gaza. Israel has similarly sidelined Hezbollah — at least for the moment — with weeks of bombardment in Lebanon last year, along with a dramatic attack with booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies that stunned the group. An even heavier blow to Hezbollah was the fall in December of Assad when Sunni rebels marched on the capital and removed him from power. Now, a government hostile to Iran and Hezbollah rules from Damascus. Iran's Axis of Resistance is at its lowest ebb ever. Lee Keath, The Associated Press
Miami Herald
an hour ago
- Miami Herald
Brazil joins Latin America's dictatorships in siding with Iran over Israel
No one's shocked to see the dictatorships of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua lining up behind Iran's repressive theocracy in its standoff with Israel. But Brazil — South America's giant — striking a similar note is sparking outrage in Western diplomatic circles. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's government issued a statement on June 13, hours after the conflict started, expressing its 'firm condemnation' of Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. But the Brazilian foreign ministry statement didn't condemn Iran's missile attacks on Israel, its repeated vows to 'eliminate' Israel, or its history of supporting terrorist groups. Iran has financially supported Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Gaza-based Hamas organization, which invaded Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing more than 1,200 civilians and taking 251 others hostage. Brazil's position on the Israel-Iran conflict stands in stark contrast with that of all major Western democracies. The leaders of the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Japan signed a joint pro-Israel statement at the G-7 summit in Alberta, Canada, on June 16. In it, they said that 'Israel has a right to defend itself' and that 'Iran is the principal source of regional instability and terror.' The G-7 statement added that 'we have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.' Shortly before Israel's attack, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had warned that Iran has been secretly enriching uranium to 60% purity — just short of the 90% required for nuclear weapons. If you are not following Iran's political history closely, you may be asking yourself: Why doesn't Iran have the right to produce nuclear weapons as India, Pakistan and several other countries have done? The answer is very simple: because Iran is publicly vowing to annihilate another sovereign country — Israel — that has been recognized by the United Nations since 1948. Few countries would stand idly by if a nearby nation vowed to erase it from the face of the earth and was close to acquiring a nuclear bomb. Over the years, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly said that Israel must be 'wiped off the map.' In a 2020 speech, he called Israel a 'cancerous tumor' that 'will undoubtedly be uprooted and destroyed,' according to the Associated Press. It's not just Iran's rhetoric that's frightening, but its actions. In addition to sponsoring terrorist attacks by its proxies against Israel, Iran was behind the Hezbollah 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, which left 85 people dead, according to Argentina's government. Elliott Abrams, who served as U.S. special representative for Iran and Venezuela in the first Trump administration, told me that 'it is shocking' to see a major democracy like Brazil lending its diplomatic support to Iran. 'It suggests that Brazilian officials have not read the IAEA report about Iran's violations of international agreements and its efforts to move toward a nuclear weapon,' he said. Abrams said this may be 'an anachronistic effort by Lula to bring back memories of the non-aligned movement. But this is 2025, not 1975'. He added, 'Brazil will not gain anything in the Arab world with this statement. It will make the Ayatollah happy, but what good does that do to Brazil?' Lula, who currently chairs the BRICS group of emerging powers led by Russia, China, India, South Africa and Iran, may be trying to raise his international profile as he prepares to host the bloc's summit in Rio de Janeiro from July 6-7. But many Latin American officials and academics say the Brazilian president may be shooting himself in the foot. Brazil, and Latin America in general, are minor players in world affairs, and Lula's posturing may do his country more harm than good, they say. Andres Velasco, dean of the London School of Economics' School of Public Policy and a former finance minister of Chile, told me that the Brazilian president's flirtations with China, Russia, Iran and the BRICS 'are very bad policy' amid President Trump's global tariff wars. 'I was truly embarrassed to see President Lula recently applauding the parade of missiles on their way to killing Ukrainians at Moscow's Red Square,' Velasco said. Referring to Trump's possible reaction, Velasco added that 'these kinds of things put Latin America in the spotlight at a time when things are so heated that they invite (U.S.) retaliations. The best thing a country like Brazil could do would be to draw as little attention as possible.' Indeed, the support for Iran from Lula and much of Latin America's old-guard left is preposterous. Iran is not only a Jurassic dictatorship that puts women in jail for not covering their heads with a hijab in public and executes people for being gay. It is also a major a global sponsor of terrorism. If Iran is allowed to have a nuclear bomb, it will become much more of a global threat than it already is. Don't miss the 'Oppenheimer Presenta' TV show on Sundays at 9 pm E.T. on CNN en Español. Blog:
