Blue states hope their clean energy plans withstand collision with Trump
Wind turbines generate electricity at the Block Island Wind Farm near Block Island, R.I. President Donald Trump has blocked leasing for pending offshore wind projects, a serious roadblock for many states' plan to transition to clean energy. ()
For states that are pursuing plans to build more wind and solar projects, the federal government has suddenly shifted from a powerful ally to a formidable opponent.
State leaders are still scrambling to make sense of President Donald Trump's flurry of executive orders, funding freezes, agency directives and verbal threats about clean energy. It's as if the teammate who had passed them the ball is now trying to block their shot.
Trump has slammed the brakes on offshore wind development, which relies on access to federal waters. He's halted permitting for some renewable energy projects. He's frozen grants and loans supporting everything from rooftop solar panels to household weatherization assistance. And he's created uncertainty around the tax credits that are perhaps the most significant driver of clean energy development.
'Yeah, we're in trouble,' said New Jersey state Sen. Bob Smith, a Democrat who chairs his state's Senate Environment and Energy Committee. 'We're about to get whipsawed pretty badly. Are [New Jersey's] electrical upgrades at risk because of Trump? Absolutely.'
Trump has long opposed wind power development and has repeatedly called climate change a 'hoax.' He's spread falsehoods that wind farms cause cancer and are more expensive than other forms of power. He's focused heavily on promoting fossil fuel production. His orders have been a sharp reversal of priorities from former President Joe Biden, who made clean energy investments a signature issue.
'We're not going to do the wind thing,' Trump said during a rally for supporters shortly after he was sworn in on Jan. 20.
Officials who want to lower greenhouse gas emissions argue that many of Trump's actions are unlawful. They expect courts to overrule his attempts to hold back funding approved by Congress under Biden. But they fear the greater threat is that the federal volatility will push clean energy developers and financiers to stop backing projects.
Yeah, we're in trouble. We're about to get whipsawed pretty badly.
– New Jersey Democratic state Sen. Bob Smith
'These actions are sowing a lot of chaos,' said Patrick Drupp, director of climate policy with the Sierra Club, a national environmental advocacy group. 'The longer that goes on, the more likely projects go away. If developers start pulling back from large projects, those are big parts of meeting [clean energy] goals for a lot of these states.'
Leaders in blue states say they're committed to overcoming Trump's opposition. They're confident that simple market dynamics will make it hard to hold back development. The country's energy needs are growing quickly, and wind and solar are among the cheapest sources of electricity. Meanwhile, more than a dozen U.S. House Republicans have called to preserve the clean energy tax credits, citing the jobs and revenue created in their districts.
'Are we confused by what we're hearing out of D.C.? Yes,' said Minnesota state Sen. Nick Frentz, a Democrat who chairs the Senate Energy, Utilities, Environment, and Climate Committee and authored the state's clean electricity law. 'But I'm fairly confident that affordability and reliability will continue to drive clean energy into Minnesota's energy mix.'
The most clear-cut energy casualty of Trump's second term is the development of offshore wind. Many Atlantic states have been counting on offshore turbines to provide much of their electricity, an effort that had strong federal support when Biden was in the White House. But now those federal waters have a new landlord.
Trump's executive order put an immediate halt to offshore wind leases, which are overseen by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. The order also threatens to undo existing leases, encouraging reviews of projects that face litigation.
'The Trump Administration is unlikely to vigorously defend offshore wind project permits issued by the Biden Administration,' Timothy Fox, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners LLC, an independent research firm, wrote in an email. '[The order] could encourage offshore wind foes to file additional legal challenges.'
A handful of previously approved projects are still moving forward, including a Virginia wind farm that's under construction. But the many more pending projects face dim prospects under Trump. Already, New Jersey — which has anchored its climate plans on offshore wind — is pulling back state financial support for projects.
Federal hostility could delay offshore wind projects, derailing state climate goals
'It's a HUGE roadblock, and put huge in capital letters,' Smith, the New Jersey lawmaker, said in an interview. 'It's a real, real problem for the immediate future and maybe even the long-term future.'
Smith said state leaders may have to look at other options to bolster their energy plans, such as small modular nuclear reactors. But he said that technology is 10 to 15 years away.
Officials who support clean energy say states can still work to improve their ports and transmission infrastructure, to give the offshore industry a strong platform to relaunch under a future administration. But policymakers and developers may now be unwilling to invest in a sector that can be upended after any election.
'It doesn't look great,' said Alissa Weinman, ocean program manager with the National Caucus of Environmental Legislators, a collaborative nonpartisan forum for state lawmakers. 'We've seen big developers pivot towards projects in other countries. That volatility is a real concern, especially because offshore wind [in the U.S.] is still in its nascent stages.'
Trump's order also targeted onshore wind, putting a similar halt to turbine leases on federal lands. While the vast majority of onshore wind development is on private lands, even those projects may face threats from the administration. In response to another Trump order focused on fossil fuel development, for example, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers froze pending permits last week for 168 renewable energy projects on private lands.
The agency says it has since lifted the pause, but not for wind power projects, The New York Times reported.
Climate advocates note that many wind projects require permits from the Federal Aviation Administration, another potential avenue for Trump to block development.
'If it becomes the policy to just deny all of those permits, that would be a problem for the entire industry, regardless of the type of land it's on,' said Ava Gallo, climate and energy program manager with the environmental lawmakers group. 'That's a worst-case but very possible scenario. If wind takes that big of a hit, it throws [states' clean energy targets] into jeopardy.'
Clean energy advocates note the bipartisan support for wind energy and red states' reliance on it.
'Wind energy is incredibly popular and a bipartisan thing that's brought huge amounts of money to a lot of red states,' said Drupp, with the Sierra Club.
Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas lead the nation in wind power generation. Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has boasted about his state's nation-leading wind production, while also claiming Texas needs to invest heavily in 'reliable' gas-fired plants to stabilize the grid.
State leaders say it's still unclear whether Trump's aim is to uphold a blanket federal ban on permits for wind and solar projects. Such a move, they say, would be a clear overstep of his authority.
'We're going to challenge every illegal and out-of-order action by this administration and continue to work towards our goals,' said New York state Sen. Kevin Parker, a Democrat who chairs the Senate Committee on Energy and Telecommunications. 'We're trying to identify the things we can do despite federal interference, or things that we can do on our own.'
Trump has also moved to freeze funding from the Inflation Reduction Act, the climate law passed under Biden that created major grants, loans and tax credits for clean energy.
The investments have been a significant catalyst for renewable development, and a large portion of the wind and solar projects in the works are supported by its programs. Industry leaders say the law is expected to produce 550 gigawatts of wind, solar and battery storage by 2030 — more than doubling the nation's current clean energy supply.
Red and blue states have big climate plans. The election could upend them.
Climate advocates say Trump's moves overstep his authority and that only Congress can revoke funding it has previously approved. They note that the federal government has already issued contracts for many of the grants blocked by Trump.
Judges have issued orders halting Trump's attempt to pause federal spending; a federal judge ruled this week that agencies have violated his previous order by failing to restore access to the funds.
'They [Trump officials] are creating a lot of confusion, likely on purpose,' said Rachel Jacobson, lead researcher of state climate policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank.
So far, Trump has not yet explicitly targeted the law's clean energy tax credits for developers and consumers, which have proven popular in both red and blue states. Analysts say those credits have been a key driver in making renewable projects attractive for financiers and developers.
However, climate advocates say Trump could revise regulations from the Internal Revenue Service to limit access to the credits, or slash agency staff to delay credit approvals. Some fear he could work with Republican allies in Congress to repeal the tax credits altogether.
'Even the threat of tax credit repeal will cool the market and make it harder for project financing,' Jacobson said.
State leaders say they're still working to understand the extent of Trump's orders and how their plans will be affected. But they point to the investments they've made at the state level and the rapid growth of renewables as an affordable electricity source.
'[Federal funding] would have been immensely helpful, but our program was always built to stand alone,' said Parker, the New York lawmaker. 'Whatever roadblocks the federal government tries to put in our way, we'll try to legally deconstruct them, drive around them or drive on roads that don't have roadblocks.'
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