State of the spend: Charting Budget 3.0
You'd be forgiven for losing track. South Africa is now on Budget Speech 3.0 in just four months.
Fiscal policy keeps morphing to meet political pressures and economic realities and the National Treasury's latest figures reveal some subtle shifts and trade-offs.
Here is the visualised story behind the numbers, taking a look at where every R100 of your tax goes, what's driving up debt, and how the scrapped VAT proposal rewrote the books in-between budgets.
Highlights from 2025's third budget reveals a larger negative budget balance than Budget 2.0, tabled 12 March, and a loss in GDP of about R2-billion since National Treasury's first try in February.
After the proposed VAT hike was scrapped following legal and political pressure, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced on 21 May that a general fuel levy will come into effect on 4 June. No changes were made to other personal income tax or any tax brackets, but a R20-billion tax plan is set to be revealed in Budget 2026, unless SARS can strap up and rake in some extra rands.
Speaking of tax… have you ever wondered exactly what the government does with the money that's dutifully subtracted from your pay cheque every month? Looking at the National Treasury's consolidated spending by functional and economic classification, we've analysed which departments score and which departments only manage to rake a few cents.
The debt-to-GDP ration of the country is an expression of how manageable the country's debt is. Budget 3.0 revealed the highest metric in this category since 1994. The country's GDP is also expected to grow only 1.4% in 2025.
The country's gross borrowing requirement, or borrowing cost, saw an increase of R6.24-billion as Treasury had to stretch out their hands to plug the hole left by the withdrawn VAT hike.
This budget projects consolidated spending growth averaging 5.4% annually, from R2.4 trillion in 2024/25 to R2.81 trillion in 2027/2028. Departments have largely retained their baselines, while the Treasury aimed to keep service delivery areas protected.
In case you wanted to know how Budget 3.0 stacks up against its previous iterations… Spot some changes in decisions about personal income tax rebates, VAT rates dropping from 2% to 0.5% then to none at all, and a public-sector wage bill whose allocated spending over the next three years has remained unchanged, even three budgets later. DM
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Daily Maverick
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Lottery jackpot — Mashatile's family tied to new multibillion-rand operator deal
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Bellamont and consortium partners then registered Sizekhaya just days before last year's February 3 deadline to contest the fourth national lottery licence. Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Parks Tau, finally announced the award to Sizekhaya on May 28 this year after protracted delays and what he called 'this arduous exercise' of evaluating eight applications. The National Lotteries Commission, which answers to Tau, helps adjudicate licence bids. The lottery licence is almost literally a licence to print money. The outgoing operator, Ithuba Holdings, reported a R7.28-billion turnover in 2024. Bogatsu and Tembe's joint involvement adds to widespread fears that the politics of patronage may have intruded on the award process. Tembe stays in a palatial residence on Bellamont Road above Umdloti Beach, north of Durban – a road that lent its name to Bellamont Gaming and about a dozen other companies in Tembe's corporate arsenal. People from the area, who asked not to be named, said that Mashatile and Humile had frequented Tembe's home, particularly last year when the deputy president's sizable motorcade made itself known. In February last year, they allegedly stayed over for around six days ahead of the ANC's election manifesto launch in Durban. A picture shows Tembe and Mashatile together at St Paul's Anglican Church where the party was honouring those who lost their lives in a bus crash returning from the manifesto launch at Moses Mabhida Stadium. The manifesto launch was on 24 February, three weeks after the Lotto bid deadline. Tembe has been seen at Mashatile's side in public, including in May this year as part of the business delegation that accompanied the deputy president to France for an investment conference. 'Nothing to do with the deputy president' In a terse response to amaBhungane's questions, Mashatile's spokesperson, Keith Khoza, denied the deputy president interfered. 'He has nothing to do with the licence award process as it does not fall within the ambit of his delegated functions nor did he participate in any way, shape or form. Similarly, the business relationship with any of the parties involved has nothing to do with the [deputy president] and his wife.' Khoza did not respond to detailed questions about Mashatile's relationship with Tembe and the new lotto operator, nor whether he was briefed – formally or informally – on the lottery bid. National Lottery Commission spokesperson Rudzani Tshigemane referred questions to Tau's department, which did not respond to amaBhungane's query. Sizekhaya Holdings, answering on its, Bogatsu and Tembe's behalf, said it rejected 'with the utmost seriousness, any suggestion that our successful bid for the national lottery licence was influenced by political proximity'. 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It said Bellamont in turn was a 'minority shareholder' in Sizekhaya and 'a legally compliant gaming entity'. Publicly available information records the Goldrush Group as Sizekhaya's largest shareholder, with 50%, which will reduce to 40% when a stake is issued to a government entity in line with licensing conditions. Goldrush is in turn 59.4% owned by JSE-listed Goldrush Holdings, whose shareholders include Mauritian-based Astoria Investments and local investors Jan van Niekerk and Piet Viljoen. Another notable figure in Sizekhaya is ANC-linked businessman Sandile Zungu. He was nominated for the position of ANC KwaZulu-Natal chair in 2022 but decided not to contest after speaking to ANC leaders. Zungu, like Tembe, accompanied Mashatile to France in May this year. The delegate list records Tembe as representing his Bellamont Investments and Zungu his Zungu Investments. It was a visit that later drew media scrutiny over Mashatile's travel expenses and the company the deputy president kept. The delegation included a businessman under scrutiny by Johannesburg Water, an amaBhungane investigation has found. Sizekhaya said Tembe and Zungu attended the investment conference 'at the formal invitation of the South African Ambassador to France, Mr Nathi Mthethwa' and that they were 'present as part of a longstanding national effort to promote foreign investment'. Sizekhaya did not respond directly to a question about Mashatile's alleged stay at Tembe's house before the ANC manifesto launch, but said Tembe 'has hosted and interacted with trade unionists, religious figures and political leaders across the spectrum, including the ANC, IFP, DA, EFF, MK Party – and yes, Deputy President Paul Mashatile'. Regarding a picture that shows Tembe and Mashatile together at St Paul's Anglican Church in Durban where the party honoured party faithful killed in a bus crash after the launch, it said Tembe had been invited by the presiding minister, his cousin Reverend Thami Tembe. 'This was a private family engagement of spiritual significance, and it would be inaccurate to attribute any political motive to it.' 'Never concealed' Sizekhaya dismissed any suggestion that the company's successful bid was tainted by political connections. 'This is a defamatory inference that maligns not only Mr Tembe's business integrity but also undermines the credibility of the regulatory and adjudication systems of the Republic of South Africa.' Sizekhaya also said Tembe 'has never concealed his association' with the deputy president: 'Given Mr Mashatile's public role as the country's second citizen and the scrutiny which accompanies it, it would be entirely illogical – if not impossible – to obscure any such association.' The Lotteries Act provides that 'no political party in the Republic or political office-bearer [must have] any direct financial interest in the applicant or a shareholder of the applicant' for a lottery licence. Sizekhaya said it had fully complied with the Act: 'No arrangements exist that confer a direct or indirect financial benefit to any political entity.' Bogatsu, it said, 'is not a political office bearer and is fully entitled to pursue any legitimate commercial interest'. Controversy The awarding of the fourth lottery licence has garnered significant public attention, which has focused also on the apparent political ties of other bidders. Political parties Build One South Africa (Bosa) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) have been outspoken on the issue. Bosa submitted a Promotion of Access to Information Act application last October to access the identities of the people tasked with adjudicating the tender amid concerns of conflicts of interest. 'At R180-billion, the contract to operate the national lottery is the country's largest tender. Given the amount of money involved, the process followed requires a high duty of care to ensure no malfeasance or wrongdoing by any party involved,' Bosa deputy leader Nobuntu Hlazo-Webster said. The EFF last year raised red flags including over the involvement of Tembe and Zungu in Sizekhaya. 'The minister's refusal to answer direct questions … raises serious concerns about the legitimacy and lawfulness of the process,' spokesperson Sinawo Tambo said. The process of the award has not been without struggle, plagued by delays and court challenges. In December last year, Tau said he had identified 'matters that require further evaluation' and postponed his decision. He cited the need to ensure that the licensee's owners and managers were fit and proper persons. 'In addition, I must ensure that no political party or political office-bearer has any direct financial interest in the applicant or a shareholder of the applicant,' he said. DM
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