Reckoning Is Coming for US Treasuries, Says Gundlach
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach says a "reckoning is coming" for US treasuries. "You should be thinking about increasing your allocations to non-dollar investments," he said at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum.
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19 hours ago
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Canadians snapped up U.S. debt in April despite Trump's tariffs, but the bond selloff tanked its value
April's massive bond selloff didn't stop Canadians from buying Treasuries, but it weighed heavily on the value of their holdings. Higher interest rates in the U.S., where the Federal Reserve has been much more patient to cut interest rates than other central banks, have likely spurred demand. Canadians have been ditching all-things American after having enough of U.S. President Donald Trump's threats about tariffs and making their country the '51st state.' Boycotts of U.S. products from whiskey to dog food to Teslas—and a huge pullback in travel across the border—haven't stopped Canadian investors from buying Uncle Sam's debt, though. Trump's chaotic tariff rollout in April marked the high point of the 'Sell America' trade as stocks, bonds, and the dollar all sank. But despite the turmoil in fixed-income markets, Canadians purchased a net $9.2 billion of U.S. government bonds in April, the biggest monthly surge since November 2023. This embedded content is not available in your region. However, the value of Canada's overall holdings fell by roughly $58 billion that same month, according to the most recent data from the Treasury, by far the biggest swing for any of the top 20 foreign owners of U.S. debt. The drop likely reflects that month's massive bond selloff, which may have forced Trump to back off on his so-called reciprocal tariffs. Long-term yields, which spike when bond prices fall, have remained stubbornly elevated with the Federal Reserve—unlike other central banks around the world—patient to cut interest rates. 'You've got this gap emerging with the Fed on hold and the Bank of Canada cutting rates, along with everyone else,' Rob Haworth, a senior vice president and investment strategist at U.S. Bank, told Fortune. The Bank of Canada has slashed rates by 225 basis points over the past nine months, including 25-point cuts in January and March. The Fed, meanwhile, reduced rates by 100 points from September to December last year but has held rates steady so far in 2025. As a result, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.38% as markets closed on Friday, while Canada's was at 3.30%. Higher interest rates in the U.S. can make Treasuries appealing to Canadians and other foreign investors, Haworth said, provided they can effectively hedge the risk presented by a weakening U.S. dollar. At the end of January, Canada's private and public sector held a combined $351 billion worth of Treasury securities. That number surged to $426 billion at the end of March before falling to $368 billion in April, the most recent data available. As Federal Reserve economists explained last year, this type of data has long been used as a gauge of foreign demand for Treasuries, particularly among the top three holders: Japan, the U.K., and China. The example of Canada, the seventh-largest owner of U.S. debt, illustrates why this approach is shortsighted, however. After all, Canadian investors bought more Treasuries in April, even as the total value of their holdings declined after revaluing the bonds at current market prices. The big drop suggests America's northern neighbor has heavy exposure to long-dated Treasury notes and bonds, which are much more volatile than short-term Treasury bills. 'Valuation changes often move in the opposite direction of net U.S. sales/purchases and are often large enough to drive overall changes in holdings,' Fed economists wrote last year. 'As such, changes in holdings alone are an unreliable measure of cross-border demand for U.S. or foreign securities.' Foreign investors account for roughly 30% of the U.S. Treasury market, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk, and their behavior is being closely monitored as the Trump administration pushes for big shifts in global trade and international finance. The U.S. borrows at much better rates than its underlying finances would normally allow, thanks to the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and confidence that America will always pay its bills. If foreign buyers sour on U.S. Treasuries, however, that could force the Treasury to pay higher yields to bring back buyers. Such a move would put upward pressure on interest rates for mortgages, small-business loans, and other common types of borrowing throughout the economy. Foreign investors held just over $9 trillion worth of Treasuries at the end of April, down only slightly from the record set in March. The decline in the dollar this year, Haworth said, has been much more pronounced than any offloading of Treasuries. That makes sense, he added, because a slowdown in trade affects the flow of dollars first as greenbacks are used in fewer transactions. Changes in the allocation of Treasuries, often held as investments or bank reserves, happen much more slowly. 'There's probably still some fundamental pressure as we suss out where trade and tariffs end up,' he said. The Treasury data from April showed foreign private investors were net sellers of long-term U.S. debt. Government institutions like central banks and sovereign wealth funds were net buyers. More current data suggests the latter trend may have reversed in the months since, though. Holdings by these official entities in the custody of the New York Federal Reserve have declined by $48 billion since late March, prompting Bank of America credit strategists to suggest that 'cracks' in demand from these investors are now visible. Still, it doesn't seem foreigners are dumping U.S. debt just yet. Even angry Canadians. 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Yahoo
20 hours ago
- Yahoo
Canadians snapped up U.S. debt in April despite Trump's tariffs, but the bond selloff tanked its value
April's massive bond selloff didn't stop Canadians from buying Treasuries, but it weighed heavily on the value of their holdings. Higher interest rates in the U.S., where the Federal Reserve has been much more patient to cut interest rates than other central banks, have likely spurred demand. Canadians have been ditching all-things American after having enough of U.S. President Donald Trump's threats about tariffs and making their country the '51st state.' Boycotts of U.S. products from whiskey to dog food to Teslas—and a huge pullback in travel across the border—haven't stopped Canadian investors from buying Uncle Sam's debt, though. Trump's chaotic tariff rollout in April marked the high point of the 'Sell America' trade as stocks, bonds, and the dollar all sank. But despite the turmoil in fixed-income markets, Canadians purchased a net $9.2 billion of U.S. government bonds in April, the biggest monthly surge since November 2023. This embedded content is not available in your region. However, the value of Canada's overall holdings fell by roughly $58 billion that same month, according to the most recent data from the Treasury, by far the biggest swing for any of the top 20 foreign owners of U.S. debt. The drop likely reflects that month's massive bond selloff, which may have forced Trump to back off on his so-called reciprocal tariffs. Long-term yields, which spike when bond prices fall, have remained stubbornly elevated with the Federal Reserve—unlike other central banks around the world—patient to cut interest rates. 'You've got this gap emerging with the Fed on hold and the Bank of Canada cutting rates, along with everyone else,' Rob Haworth, a senior vice president and investment strategist at U.S. Bank, told Fortune. The Bank of Canada has slashed rates by 225 basis points over the past nine months, including 25-point cuts in January and March. The Fed, meanwhile, reduced rates by 100 points from September to December last year but has held rates steady so far in 2025. As a result, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.38% as markets closed on Friday, while Canada's was at 3.30%. Higher interest rates in the U.S. can make Treasuries appealing to Canadians and other foreign investors, Haworth said, provided they can effectively hedge the risk presented by a weakening U.S. dollar. At the end of January, Canada's private and public sector held a combined $351 billion worth of Treasury securities. That number surged to $426 billion at the end of March before falling to $368 billion in April, the most recent data available. As Federal Reserve economists explained last year, this type of data has long been used as a gauge of foreign demand for Treasuries, particularly among the top three holders: Japan, the U.K., and China. The example of Canada, the seventh-largest owner of U.S. debt, illustrates why this approach is shortsighted, however. After all, Canadian investors bought more Treasuries in April, even as the total value of their holdings declined after revaluing the bonds at current market prices. The big drop suggests America's northern neighbor has heavy exposure to long-dated Treasury notes and bonds, which are much more volatile than short-term Treasury bills. 'Valuation changes often move in the opposite direction of net U.S. sales/purchases and are often large enough to drive overall changes in holdings,' Fed economists wrote last year. 'As such, changes in holdings alone are an unreliable measure of cross-border demand for U.S. or foreign securities.' Foreign investors account for roughly 30% of the U.S. Treasury market, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk, and their behavior is being closely monitored as the Trump administration pushes for big shifts in global trade and international finance. The U.S. borrows at much better rates than its underlying finances would normally allow, thanks to the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and confidence that America will always pay its bills. If foreign buyers sour on U.S. Treasuries, however, that could force the Treasury to pay higher yields to bring back buyers. Such a move would put upward pressure on interest rates for mortgages, small-business loans, and other common types of borrowing throughout the economy. Foreign investors held just over $9 trillion worth of Treasuries at the end of April, down only slightly from the record set in March. The decline in the dollar this year, Haworth said, has been much more pronounced than any offloading of Treasuries. That makes sense, he added, because a slowdown in trade affects the flow of dollars first as greenbacks are used in fewer transactions. Changes in the allocation of Treasuries, often held as investments or bank reserves, happen much more slowly. 'There's probably still some fundamental pressure as we suss out where trade and tariffs end up,' he said. The Treasury data from April showed foreign private investors were net sellers of long-term U.S. debt. Government institutions like central banks and sovereign wealth funds were net buyers. More current data suggests the latter trend may have reversed in the months since, though. Holdings by these official entities in the custody of the New York Federal Reserve have declined by $48 billion since late March, prompting Bank of America credit strategists to suggest that 'cracks' in demand from these investors are now visible. Still, it doesn't seem foreigners are dumping U.S. debt just yet. Even angry Canadians. This story was originally featured on
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The Dollar Is Hanging On to Its Haven Role by a Thread, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) -- The escalating Middle East conflict is likely to help the dollar hold on to its haven role — but only just, the latest Bloomberg Pulse survey shows. Security Concerns Hit Some of the World's 'Most Livable Cities' One Architect's Quest to Save Mumbai's Heritage From Disappearing JFK AirTrain Cuts Fares 50% This Summer to Lure Riders Off Roads NYC Congestion Toll Cuts Manhattan Gridlock by 25%, RPA Reports Taser-Maker Axon Triggers a NIMBY Backlash in its Hometown A little more than half of 251 respondents think the US currency will regain its status as a safe asset as Iran and Israel continue to carry out attacks on each other. Yet participants also see the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falling over the next month, according to the poll conducted June 13-18. 'While we expect further dollar weakness, investors now perceive more two-way risks,' Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists including Christian Mueller-Glissmann and Michael Cahill wrote in a note to clients. 'Some argue the depreciation may be overdone, especially given resilient US asset returns.' The divergence underscores a shift in perceptions of the greenback, as global investors grow more averse to President Donald Trump's policies. While geopolitical tensions in the past week have limited its decline, sentiment toward the US currency remains overwhelmingly bearish. The share of respondents expecting Bloomberg's dollar gauge to fall over the next month is the smallest since February, according to Pulse survey data. The index was set for its first weekly gain since May. Beyond the revival of haven demand, the greenback also received support from a Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday, where Chair Jerome Powell warned of the inflationary impact of tariffs and said policymakers don't have great conviction in their outlook for lower rates. All the same, this week's advance barely dents the greenback's battering this year. It has lost more than 11% against the euro and about 8% against the Japanese yen so far this year. A weaker dollar is here to stay, according to Invesco Ltd. Senior Portfolio Manager Kristina Campmany. Recent shakeups in US policy mean that there's now a premium for holding the currency, Campmany said earlier this month at Bloomberg's Money & Macro: An Evening with Markets Live event in New York. As for Treasuries, higher oil prices resulting from the Middle East conflict will add to price pressures that will temper the bond rally — that's according to 49% of survey respondents. About a third said the crude spike will have no effect on US debt. The appeal of Treasuries in times of turmoil was clear. When asked which asset will deliver better volatility-adjusted returns over the next month, 54% of respondents favored bonds over US stocks. Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
