Opinion - The US must establish credible deterrence in the West Philippine Sea
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's decision to visit the Philippines on his first official trip to the region this week is commendable and sends a strong signal of commitment and of the enduring strength of the relationship with America's oldest ally in the Indo-Pacific.
The arrival of the most senior member of the Trump administration to travel to Manila to date comes in the wake of China's increasing aggression and brinkmanship within Philippine territorial waters over the past year to include the employment of military grade lasers, high-pressure water cannons and even knife and axe-wielding boarding parties attacking Philippine Navy boats and injuring sailors.
It also comes at a time when many U.S. allies and partners are reassessing their view of American alliance commitments going forward.
The capabilities of the Philippine Armed Forces and Coast Guard to deter and defend against Chinese aggression are increasing, thanks, in part, to continued U.S. support and security assistance, but remain far from what is required to change Beijing's calculus of what it can get away with in the pursuit of its illegal claims.
Compounding this calculation is China's view that the U.S. will not risk escalation by intervening militarily in response to its ongoing aggressive actions. China's harassment and overt attacks on Philippine military and coast guard vessels and personnel will continue to escalate, likely resulting in additional Philippine casualties and fatalities, even if by accident or miscalculation.
A perfect storm is brewing that threatens to place the U.S. in a lose-lose position of either risking escalation to conflict or undermining its credibility as a reliable alliance partner — or both. Avoiding either costly outcome requires fast-tracking the establishment of credible deterrence.
This can be achieved in the medium to longer term by continuing robust military and security assistance aimed at modernizing the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Philippine Coast Guard, especially in areas like autonomous systems, surveillance, intelligence collection and other capabilities that enhance maritime domain awareness and other critical capabilities. Credit the ongoing activities of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and other organizations across the Defense and State Departments for supporting these modernization efforts.
In the immediate term, however, a powerful way to bolster credible deterrence and signal that the alliance is indeed ironclad is to formally invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty, specifically its Article III and potentially Article IV, in response to future Chinese aggression.
Article III calls on the parties to 'consult together from time to time' when 'the territorial integrity, political independence or security of either of the Parties is threatened by external armed attack in the Pacific.' Article IV obliges the parties to respond to common dangers such as an attack by China, 'in accordance with its constitutional processes.'
As the treaty dictates, invocation of Article III or Article IV would not require any overt military response but would oblige Congress to review its level of support to the Philippines in light of attacks and the threat of more going forward.
By invoking the treaty, the U.S. can formally and regularly review the level and nature of the assistance it provides the Philippines in response to Chinese aggression. Such proactive measures will show tangible cause and effect to China and bolster the perceived credibility of the U.S. as an alliance partner.
The U.S. can and should demonstrate that it will act when its treaty ally is viciously threatened or attacked. These actions should be measured but substantive and determined in accordance with our constitutional processes.
Acting proactively can help to avoid being forced into an immediate and potentially destabilizing military decision on whether or not to come to the aid of the Philippines militarily in a future crisis when China attacks again and with lethal results.
Formally invoking the Mutual Defense Treaty should not be viewed as provocative but instead as a mechanism to proactively support more robust and effective development of Philippine defense and national security capabilities ex ante to deter further escalation of conflict, not ex post in response to a crisis situation where expectations within the alliance are more likely to diverge with the prospect of a crisis spilling over to a regional war with a nuclear armed adversary.
Such proactive measures will call out and hold China accountable for its illegal and aggressive actions. They will help ensure any U.S. responses to Chinese aggression are measured and deliberate in accordance with our constitutional processes, versus being forced to make an immediate executive decision on whether or not to come to the aid of the Philippines militarily in a future crisis
China will continue to escalate its aggressive actions and push its expansionist agenda in the West Philippine Sea unimpeded. It believes it can be combative without a credible response due to limited Philippine capabilities and a lack of U.S. commitment to come to the aid of their treaty ally.
The U.S. can act to force China to recalculate on both of these counts. It can set expectations of U.S. commitment to the alliance and to upholding an accurate interpretation of its obligations under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, concurrent with building capabilities and making investments in restoring credible deterrence.
President Bongbong Marcos Jr., his secretary of national defense and senior leaders in the Philippines are demonstrating courage in standing up for Philippine sovereignty and committing to strengthening the longstanding U.S.-Philippines alliance. This comes at a time when there is a bipartisan consensus in the U.S. that its priority national security interests lie in the Indo-Pacific.
America's comparative advantage in advancing its interests is through the strengthening of its alliances and partnerships in this priority region. Another perfect storm is brewing — in this case, a positive one.
The U.S. and the Philippines must not squander this opportunity to strengthen the credibility of their alliance and establish the effective and durable deterrence that it presents to maintain peace within Philippine territory and across the entire region.
Joseph Felter is a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution and served as deputy assistant secretary of Defense for South and Southeast Asia in the first Trump administration
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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