As Israel-Iran war escalates, Ukraine fears ‘more losses' to Russia
Kyiv, Ukraine – There is a Persian word millions of Ukrainians fear.
Shahed – also spelled as Shaheed or Shahid, originally a Quranic term for 'martyr' or 'witness' – is the name given to the triangular, explosives-laden, Iranian-designed drones that became a harrowing part of daily life and death in wartime Ukraine.
These days, they are assembled in the Volga-region Russian city of Yelabuga and undergo constant modifications to make them faster, smarter and deadlier during each air raid that involves hundreds of drones.
Their latest Russian versions shot down in Ukraine earlier this month have artificial intelligence modules to better recognise targets, video cameras and two-way radio communication with human operators.
'The word 'Shahed' will forever be cursed in Ukrainian next to 'Moscow' and 'Putin',' said Denys Kovalenko, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Kovalenko's face and arms were cut by glass shards after a Shahed exploded above his northern Kyiv neighbourhood in 2023.
Shaheds are the most visible and audible part of the military alliance between Moscow and Tehran that is being tested this month amid attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran.
Other aspects of the alliance that affect the Russia-Ukraine war include Iranian-made ammunition, helmets, and flak jackets, according to Nikita Smagin, an author and expert on Russia-Iran relations.
However, the year 2022, when Putin started the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, was the 'peak of Iran's significance for Russia as a military partner', Smagin told Al Jazeera.
The Kremlin has invested tens of billions of dollars into its military-industrial complex and shadow systems to supply chips, machine tools and dual-purpose goods for its weapons that bypass Western sanctions.
The flow of military technologies usually went the other way as Moscow supplied advanced air defence systems, missiles and warplanes to Tehran, keeping Israel worried.
In 2009, then-Israeli President Shimon Peres told this reporter in Moscow that his visit was aimed at convincing the Kremlin to 'reconsider' the sale of S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Tehran.
Russia's advanced Su-35 jets were supposed to be delivered to Tehran earlier this year, but were not seen in the Iranian sky.
Washington's arms supplies to Israel have already affected Kyiv's ability to withstand Russia's air raids and slow advance on the ground.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on June 9 that the White House decided to divert 20,000 anti-drone missiles earmarked for Kyiv.
'Without the help of the United States, we'll have more losses,' Zelenskyy said in televised remarks.
More Ukraine-bound military aid may now be diverted to Israel, and the Kremlin 'counts on this scenario', analyst Smagin said.
This possible diversion already alarms Ukraine's top brass.
Arms that were 'made for Ukraine will go to the Middle, so there are no illusions about it', Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of Ukraine's general staff of armed forces, told Al Jazeera.
There should be no illusions about Russia's ability to protect Iran, he said.
Even though Moscow and Tehran hail their strategic partnership, it does not envisage a mutual defence clause.
Therefore, the Kremlin will hardly be able to commit to military action similar to the Russian air raids against Syria's then-opposition to support then-President Bashar al-Assad's faltering regime, he said.
'They won't change anything significantly,' Romanenko said. 'But they will have enough for arms supplies.'
Any arms supplies may, however, enrage US President Donald Trump, who has so far showed unusual leniency towards Moscow's actions in Ukraine as his administration botched peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv.
Moscow's condemnation of Israeli and US strikes on Iran evoked a sense of hypocrisy, some observers said, as Russia's description of the attacks sounded familiar.
'No matter what arguments are used to justify an irresponsible decision to subject a sovereign state's territory to missile and bomb strikes, [the decision] rudely violates international law, the United Nations charter and the resolutions of the UN Security Council,' Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Sunday.
'Moscow and Iran compete for China's market'
There is an area where Russia and Iran compete for multibillion-dollar oil trade profits that keep their sanctions-hobbled economies afloat.
'Moscow and Iran compete for China's market, and China will respectively have to buy more Russian oil at a higher price,' Smagin said.
A third of global oil exports go through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel between Iran and Oman that is fully controlled by Tehran's 'mosquito fleet' of tiny warships.
Crude prices will skyrocket worldwide if Tehran opts to close the strait to tankers. It would also strike a financial bonanza for Russia that could further finance the war in Ukraine.
And as Moscow's war in Ukraine consumes most of Russia's resources, its reputation in the Middle East will suffer.
'Reputation-wise, Russia suffers huge losses as it risks not to be seen as a great power in the Middle East,' Smagin said.
If Tehran rejects Trump's 'ultimate ultimatum' to work out a peace deal, Washington's attention to Iran and Israel may spell disaster for Kyiv.
'Undoubtedly, the US's refocusing on the Middle East and Iran is a geopolitical catastrophe for us; there's nothing to argue about,' Kyiv-based analyst Aleksey Kuschch told Al Jazeera.
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