Settling for Half a Victory in the Iran-Israel War
This war had been brewing for two decades - long anticipated but repeatedly avoided. Both the Iranian and Israeli sides had succeeded in avoiding direct confrontation, limiting themselves to proxy wars, until the October 7, 2023, attack happened. At that point, the Israelis decided to eliminate the sources of threat and shift their strategy from 'mowing the lawn' - targeting the proxy threats as they grow - to destroying the entire octopus. They started with Hamas, then dismantled Hezbollah's capabilities, exposed the Assad regime in Syria, and now, the war has reached Iran.
There, Iran is developing its nuclear and missile capabilities, which have rendered Israel's deterrence doctrine obsolete, making war necessary to restore the balance of power in Israel's favor and reinforce deterrence.
When it comes to the Israeli concept of deterrence, Ben-Gurion said: 'A long war is not an option for us; deterrence is our true weapon.' Moshe Dayan explained it further: 'We must scare them from even thinking of waging war, not just win it.'
Deterrence remains a cornerstone of Israel's military policy, and that's why it seeks - at least in theory - to strip Iran of its threatening capabilities. But fighting between two heavily armed and destruction-ready forces is an extremely dangerous affair. We have seen in recent history how wars have spun out of control.
Hassan Nasrallah never imagined that he and his group would be wiped out when he launched a few rockets. Bashar al-Assad never thought he would end up an isolated refugee in a suburb of Moscow. And Yehya al-Sinwar never envisioned the horrific destruction of Gaza when he planned the October 7 attack.
It's only been a few days of fighting, yet the losses are significant. The Iranians have lost top-tier commanders, and their nuclear and missile facilities have sustained major damage. The Israelis are bleeding too - Jaffa, Israel's third-largest city, has suffered massive destruction not seen since the 1948 war, due to Iranian missile attacks. The Iron Dome did not offer full protection for a small country in both population and land.
This confrontation differs from previous wars in terms of how victory and defeat are defined.
The Israelis are now prepared to tolerate heavy human losses. In the past, governments would fall if as few as five people were killed. So far, Israel has lost over 400 soldiers in the Gaza war, and it hasn't stopped. That's what makes this different - both Israelis and Iranians are willing to bear the cost, and each side sees it as an existential war.
Each party accuses the other of crossing red lines by targeting civilians, seemingly laying the groundwork to justify expanding the war, just as happened in the Iran-Iraq war, when most missiles were deliberately aimed at cities. Israel's defense minister warned: 'Tehran will burn if Iranian attacks on cities continue.' This in turn will lead to targeting political leaders, who were considered off-limits at the start of the war.
Can the war be stopped in its first week? Israeli sources say they have achieved an immediate success by dismantling Iran's defenses - systems, missiles, and command centers - but strategic Iranian capabilities remain, as not all facilities have been destroyed.
Will both sides settle for half a victory to halt the war and return to nuclear negotiations? Perhaps Tehran is willing, to stop the ongoing destruction, while the Israelis don't seem satisfied yet with the results; they want to 'complete the mission' to ensure Iran won't threaten them for the next twenty years.
There are other players too, particularly US President Donald Trump, who is likely inclined to stop the war. Will he act in the second week before things spiral out of control? How could it spiral? The Russia-Ukraine war began with two countries; today, it includes North Korean troops, Iranian drones, and Western European experts.
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