It was always going to be a tightrope walk... Now Albo has everything on the line when he meets Donald Trump this weekend: PETER VAN ONSELEN
Anthony Albanese is expected to meet US President Donald Trump during the G7 Leaders' Summit in Canada, starting in three days time. And boy are there some big issues likely to be on the agenda, starting with the AUKUS agreement.
Australia's ambitious plan to enhance its naval capabilities through the AUKUS partnership faces renewed uncertainty as the United States launches a comprehensive review of the agreement.
Assuming their meeting still happens it will be the first face-to-face encounter between the PM and Trump since the US President was elected.
It's only been a matter of months since Trump has been back in charge, and he's already seeking to reassert a combative vision of American power globally. How Albo reacts to Trump when they meet will test the PM's ability to defend national interests without undermining the alliance.
Under the AUKUS pact, Australia is set to acquire between three and five Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US.
However, questions have arisen about the US industrial base's capacity to produce the subs without compromising its own needs.
The review is being led by Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby, a known skeptic of the pact. Its terms of reference include assessing whether the AUKUS agreement aligns with President Trump's America First policy.
Colby has previously questioned the wisdom of transferring critical assets like the Virginia-class submarines to US allies, suggesting it could weaken America's naval strength.
Deputy PM and Defence Minister Richard Marles has attempted to downplay the significance of the review, describing it as a natural step to ensure alignment with US defence priorities.
But it will certainly be on the top of the agenda when Albo and Trump meet. The PM will want to be able to say that he has received assurances that the agreement is iron clad.
The question of defence spending also isn't clear cut. Trump's supporters in the US have floated a 3.5 per cent of GDP benchmark they want Australia's defence spending to rise to.
Given that it's currently only at 2.4 per cent (including across forward estimates stretching all the way out to 2034), to lift our defence spending in line with US expectations would be fiscally reckless without cuts being made elsewhere.
The Australian budget is already forecast to be in deficit for the coming decade, with gross national debt at the trillion dollar mark.
While some domestic foreign policy hawks are independently pushing for higher defence spending, the figure team Trump wants us to meet is unrealistic for a country that faces no direct military threat and is unlikely to anytime soon.
Equally, social spending pressures are mounting. The recent election campaign included a raft of new spending promises, with recurrent spending on policies such as the NDIS already a strain on the budget. To increase defence spending in that climate is unlikely to be popular.
Besides, Australia's commitment to spend $368 billion on the AUKUS submarine program should be more than enough to signal that we take our defence and alliance duties seriously.
Another volatile topic expected to come up at Albo's meeting with Trump is trade. The US President's across-the-board 10 per cent tariff on imports is economic vandalism dressed up as nationalism, and Australia currently isn't exempt. It's a regressive policy that punishes allies and undermines the very order the US once built.
Albanese has been unusually forthright on this issue, condemning the move and seeking exemptions. Whether he can actually secure them is another matter, and depends less on the logic of his arguments than it does on Trump's whims.
If the meeting achieves anything it will be to gauge whether the President is open to pragmatism rather than simply doubling down on his new found protectionism.
Finally, the beef issue is deceptively niche but symbolically important for Australia. For decades, we have maintained biosecurity restrictions on US beef imports, particularly those involving supply chains running through countries with a history of mad cow disease.
Washington wants access to the Australian market but the government is firm in saying no way. Albanese has so far been unequivocal that protecting Australia's disease-free status is non-negotiable.
The blunt rejection of US demands for access is all about Australia retaining its access to high-value export markets like Japan and Korea, which is dependent on our gold-standard reputation for safe meat.
In all of these areas of discussion the real test for Albanese when he meets Trump Mark II for the very first time is to show resolve in the face of Trump's tendency to dominate and distract.
Voters won't necessarily remember every talking point, or the finer details of what gets discussed. But they will notice if their Prime Minister looks like he blinked and Trump got the better of him.
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