Japan's exports post first drop in 8 months as U.S. tariffs hit auto firms
New Toyota RAV4 crossover SUVs for sale are seen at an auto mall. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang
TOKYO — Japan's exports fell in May for the first time in eight months as big automakers like Toyota were hit by sweeping U.S. tariffs, and the failure of Tokyo to clinch a trade deal this week will likely pile pressure on a fragile economy.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said after the Group of Seven summit in Canada on Tuesday his country had not reached a comprehensive tariff agreement with Washington as some disagreements persisted between the two nations.
Japan and the U.S. 'explored the possibility of a deal until the last minute,' he added.
Tokyo is scrambling to find ways to get Washington to exempt Japan's automakers from 25 per cent automobile industry-specific tariffs, which are hurting the country's manufacturing sector. Japan also faces a 24 per cent 'reciprocal' tariff rate starting on July 9 unless it can negotiate a deal with Washington.
Japan's automobile sector accounted for about 28 per cent of the total 21 trillion yen (US$145 billion) worth of goods the Asian country exported to the U.S. last year.
Its total exports in May dropped 1.7 per cent year-on-year by value to 8.1 trillion yen, government data showed, smaller than a median market forecast for a 3.8 per cent decrease and following a 2 per cent rise in April.
Exports to the U.S. slumped 11.1 per cent last month from a year earlier, the largest monthly percentage decline since February 2021, dragged down by a 24.7 per cent plunge in automobiles and a 19 per cent fall in auto components, while a stronger yen also helped reduce the value of shipments. Exports to China were down 8.8 per cent.
In terms of volume, however, U.S.-bound automobile exports dipped just 3.9 per cent, indicating that the biggest Japanese exporters were absorbing the tariff costs.
'The value of automobile exports to the U.S. fell, but their volume did not drop that much,' Daiwa Institute of Research economist Koki Akimoto said. 'This indicates Japanese automakers are effectively shouldering the tariff costs and not charging customers.'
So far major Japanese automakers have refrained from price increases in the U.S. to mitigate the tariff costs, except for Subaru and Mitsubishi Motors.
'They are buying time right now to see the course of Japan-U.S. trade negotiations,' Akimoto said. The absence of price hikes could affect their profits, but their fiscal base is generally solid, he added.
While Japanese stocks N225 and the yen showed little reaction to the data, shares of car companies have come under pressure this year due to concern about the tariff impact.
Automakers and other transport companies are the second-worst performer this year among the Tokyo market's 33 sector sub-indices. TSEK is down almost 12 per cent. Only makers of precision equipment have fared worse.
Toyota, the world's top-selling automaker, has estimated that tariffs likely sliced 180 billion yen from its profit in April and May alone. Honda has said it expects a 650 billion yen hit to its earnings this year from tariffs in the U.S. and elsewhere.
The Japan May trade data provide one of the earliest indications of how U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs are impacting countries and the global economy.
China's data showed this week that the country's factory output grew 5.8 per cent in May year-on-year, the slowest pace in six months. And its outbound shipments to the U.S. plunged 34.5 per cent, the sharpest drop since February 2020.
The impending tariffs had driven companies in Japan and other major Asian exporters to ramp up shipments earlier this year, inflating levels of U.S.-bound exports during that period.
The Japan data showed imports dropped 7.7 per cent in May from a year earlier, compared with market forecasts for a 6.7 per cent decrease.
As a result, Japan ran a trade deficit of 637.6 billion yen last month, compared with the forecast of a deficit of 892.9 billion yen.
DRAG ON GDP
The hit from U.S. tariffs could add pressure on Japan's lackluster economy. Subdued private consumption already caused the world's fourth-largest economy to shrink in January-March, the first contraction in a year.
However, the smaller-than-expected drop in May shipments suggests that Japan's export driver has not stumbled, slightly raising the chance of the economy avoiding a contraction in the April-June quarter, Yuhi Kawano, economist at Mizuho Securities, wrote in a report.
The tariff woes, though, complicate the Bank of Japan's task of raising still-low interest rates and reducing a balance sheet that has ballooned to roughly the size of Japan's economy.
The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Tuesday and decided to decelerate the pace of its balance sheet drawdown next year, signaling its preference to move cautiously in removing remnants of its massive, decade-long stimulus.
According to an estimate by the Japan Research Institute, if all the threatened tariff measures against Japan were to take effect, U.S.-bound exports will fall by 20 per cent to 30 per cent.
Some economists say those duties could shave around 1 percentage point of the nation's gross domestic product.
(Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki, Kantaro Komiya and Tim Kelly; Additional reporting by David DolanEditing by Shri Navaratnam and Muralikumar Anantharaman)
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