California Government Report Assesses a Decade of Changes in Retail Crime
California's retail theft rate has ticked up over the course of the past decade as changes to statewide laws, pandemic-era social standards and the retail environment have impacted crime trends. A new study from the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) shows that between 2014 and 2023, reports of retail theft increased by about 11 percent.
Prop. 47, passed in 2014, has been fingered for much of the upswing in retail-related crime over more than a decade, as it set the felony threshold for most types of retail theft at $950 or more, resulting in mere misdemeanor charges for many instances of shoplifting.
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The controversial law, which was overwhelmingly passed by voters as a ballot initiative, became a complicating factor for law enforcement agencies and prosecutors, leading to fewer arrests and convictions. Researchers also found that Prop. 47 led to an increase in other types of crime, including larceny (which can include retail theft). During the pandemic, non-residential burglaries increased, too.
Some of these trends coincided with changes to the criminal justice system, from early releases from prison and reductions in probation term lengths during Covid. 'Taken together, these changes may have impacted retail theft rates by reducing (1) the likelihood people are apprehended for crime and (2) the number of people incarcerated at a given time who might otherwise commit crime,' the research showed.
At the same time, temporary stay-at-home orders and the closure of businesses during the pandemic may have contributed to a decline in the rate of crimes between 2019 and 2020, before it rebounded in 2021. Retail-related crimes grew slightly in 2015, at a rate of 5 percent, before declining through 2021 at a total rate of 20 percent. Between 2021 and 2023, retail theft increased significantly, at a rate of 32 percent.
Experts are still trying to understand the recent upswing, with the LAO positing that other factors, like changes to the retail environment, provide a possible clue. 'For example, expansion of self-checkout lines and store policies that direct staff not to physically confront shoplifters may have made some people feel that they have a higher chance of avoiding apprehension,' the study said.
Technological changes have also made it easier for bad actors to conspire to commit crimes, a la flash mob or smash-and-grab. Social media has been broadly used to organize such retail theft schemes and share tactics, while online marketplaces are routinely used to fence stolen property—a phenomenon that's also been addressed through targeted legislation.
There have been also changes in the broader social context, researchers wrote, including rates of homelessness and drug addiction in California—potential motivating factors for retail theft.
Amid these evolving societal challenges and changes to the retail landscape, lawmakers and voters have enacted new laws, with 2024 being a landmark year for retail crime legislation in California. These laws change both the likelihood of apprehension for retail theft perpetrators, as well as the likelihood that they will face incarceration for their crimes.
For example, Prop. 36, passed by 70 percent of California voters in November, effectively rolls back the most contentious sticking point of Prop. 47 by allowing the dollar value of thefts committed by the same defendant to be aggregated to achieve a felony conviction, even if the thefts are not similar and don't occur within a 90-day period.
Under the law, those who have two are more convictions for theft-related crimes like burglary, shoplifting or carjacking can be charged with a felony, which can be punishable with three years of incarceration depending on a person's criminal history. According to LAO researchers, elevating certain misdemeanor crimes to felonies in this way could reduce opportunities to commit crimes, as more of the population likely to participate in retail theft activity would be incarcerated.
Meanwhile, another historic package of 11 retail crime-related bills was signed into law by Governor Gavin Newsom last fall, and took effect on Jan. 1. Under Chapter 168 of AB 2943, law enforcement's authority to arrest shoplifters expanded.
'This could help deter people from committing shoplifting if it causes them to perceive a higher likelihood of apprehension,' LAO analysts wrote. 'Additionally, any time they spend in jail following arrest reduces their opportunity to commit more crime.'
Notably, Chapter 803 of AB 1065, passed in 2018, established organized retail theft as a specific crime involving working with other perpetrators to steal merchandise with the intent to sell it. The law also criminalized receiving or purchasing stolen goods knowingly, or organizing with others to do so. If the value of stolen retail goods exceeds $950 within a year, thieves can be charged with a felony.
According to LAO, within the criminal justice system, available research points to two key mechanisms that impact retail crime rates—namely, the likelihood of apprehension for a crime and the number of people incarcerated who might otherwise commit crimes.
One measure of the likelihood of being apprehended for crime is the share of reported crimes for which police make an arrest and are able to resolve the case, or send the detained person for prosecution, also known as a 'clearance rate.' California's clearance rate for property crimes declined from 14 percent in 2014 to about 8 percent in 2023, ticking up during the pandemic era. According to LAO, pandemic era early releases and shorter probationary periods, along with a rise in activities like smash-and-grabs, could have reduced clearance rates. Prop. 47 narrowed officers' ability to make arrests for shoplifting, since many were treated as misdemeanors even when there were repeat offenses.
Per LAO, the California Legislature should be paying attention to a number of factors as it evaluates the success of new retail theft and retail crime laws moving forward. The office compiled several questions that lawmakers should ask as it conducts oversight of the recent changes made to address retail theft, including whether practitioners, stakeholders and the public are aware of the changes, whether the new tools are being implemented (and leveraged correctly), whether promising practices are being captured and shared, and whether the laws robust enough to account for technological change.
Other areas that should be examined include whether reports of retail crime decrease, whether clearance rates improve, whether there are increased costs to the justice system and whether there are unintended consequences to the changes in the laws. 'Collecting answers to these questions will allow the Legislature to both monitor the implementation of the law changes and help it assess whether they are successful in reducing retail theft,' LAO wrote.
On Tuesday, Governor Gavin Newsom's office offered up some evidence that lawmakers' efforts to derail retail crime are already making a dent.
According to an analysis of Real Time Crime Index data by the Public Policy Institute of California, property crimes decreased by 8.5 percent in 2024, compared to the year prior. This decrease took place before laws like Prop. 36 took effect, but after the governor opted to allocate an unprecedented $267 million to 55 cities and counties to bolster retail crime-fighting operations and boost prosecutions for organized retail crime. That order took place in fall of 2023, and grant funds were dispersed over the course of the following months.
Over the course of 2025—since the 2024 theft package and Prop. 36 were enacted—Newsom said the state's law enforcement agencies have recovered 113,245 stolen items worth nearly $6.5 million.
During the month of May alone, arrests were up almost 130 percent, while stolen assets recovered grew by 65 percent, and the value of the items recovered was up nearly 49 percent from the month prior.
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