As bird flu spreads, so do fears of a ‘nightmare scenario'
Good morning. Here's what you need to know to start your day.
Susanne Rust hated to say it, but she did:
'I think the H5N1 bird flu outbreak is going to continue to pester us as we move into 2025,' The Times' environmental health reporter told me in December as I gathered insights from our newsroom to understand what stories they'd be following into the new year.
A trip to the supermarket will confirm that bird flu is indeed pestering us.
Millions of chickens have been killed to limit transmission of the virus. That's wreaking havoc on the nation's supply of eggs, as many of you reading this know first-hand (the TikTok videos are wild).
The latest development, Susanne reported this week: a deadly strain of bird flu is infecting dairy cows in neighboring Nevada. Dubbed D1.1, this version of the virus killed a person in Louisiana, severely sickened a teen in Canada and has been causing major die-offs of wild birds in a few eastern states.
'Finding D1.1 in dairy cows caught investigators off-guard, but it is also just the latest surprise as the H5N1 bird flu continues to flummox researchers and public health officials,' she wrote. 'It's a stark reminder that this virus does not behave like a 'typical' flu virus.'
John Korslund, a former USDA scientist, didn't mince words as he explained the current situation to Susanne via email.
'This is truly a 's— show' unfolding into a nightmare scenario,' Korslund wrote. 'We have no idea how widespread this version of the virus already is in cattle herds. Every time poultry flocks break [with virus] we'll need to investigate cattle contacts [which are many] as well as wild bird and other poultry contacts.'
Researchers are facing many unanswered questions as they try to understand the virus' impacts, including how it could affect the dairy industry, other livestock animals and humans that are in close contact with those animals, and the likelihood of more 'spillover events' from wild birds into cattle.
How bad is it?
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control has recorded 67 human infections and one death through January. More than half of human cases were in California and all but two were dairy workers.
Although there are no confirmed person-to-person infections so far, Susanne previously reported on research that indicates the strain currently affecting dairy cows is one mutation away from becoming easily transmitted between humans.
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture show 32 new confirmed cases of H5N1 infections among cows at dairy facilities in the state last month and more than 736 cases in total during the outbreak. That represents nearly 77% of cases nationwide.
More than 100 commercial chicken farms in California have experienced infections, affecting more than 23 million birds, according to USDA data through Feb. 3. Nationwide, nearly 30 million birds have been affected.
In December, Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency amid rising cases, 'to ensure government agencies have the resources and flexibility they need to respond quickly to this outbreak.'
How is the federal government responding?
That's mostly TBD.
Shortly after retaking office, President Trump shut down the Biden-era White House Office of Pandemic Preparedness and ordered federal health agencies to 'pause' all public communication. That included halting studies CDC researchers planned to release pertaining to bird flu.
Infectious-disease experts are concerned that the administration's actions will hamper the government's ability to provide timely information about the spread of the virus. Susanne spoke with some who worried about economic and social isolation if the virus continues its spread.
'Other nations may begin to question the health and safety of exported agricultural products, such as dairy, livestock, poultry and meat, as well the health of Americans who want to travel internationally,' Susanne explained.
You can read her latest reporting here.
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Mayra Fernández de Schäfer writes: 'As a teenager, growing up in Guatemala, I used to have an opinion on almost everything happening in the neighborhood. Once, as I pondered over someone's ongoing crisis with a relative, my mother, almost casually, said: 'No hay que sudar calenturas ajenas' (you don't have to sweat other people's fevers), which taught me not to judge based on assumptions and also to mind my own business.'
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On Feb. 6, 1993, tennis champion Arthur Ashe — the only Black man to win Wimbledon — died of pneumonia, a complication of AIDS. He said he had contracted the disease from an unscreened blood transfusion during his second open-heart surgery in 1983. Former Times sports writer Steve Springer wrote about Ashe's wins on and off the court.
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