Varcoe: U.S. air travel demand 'has not recovered' yet from Canadians cancelling trips south, says WestJet CEO
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'If I just look into how our next couple of months are booked, then I see sort of mid-to-high teens (percentage) less bookings than there were a year ago,' he said after the speech.
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The phenomenon of Canadians opting not to travel to the U.S. has been showing up in cross-border travel statistics for several months.
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The country's largest airline, Air Canada, reported earlier this month that it was seeing booking on transborder markets drop by low teens percentage points, on average, for the following six months.
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In April, return trips by Canadians by air fell 20 per cent compared with the same month a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada preliminary figures.
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Return trips by automobile plunged 35 per cent — the fourth straight month of year-over-year declines in both categories.
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A research note by ATB Economics on Wednesday pointed out the number of Canadians returning from south of the border through the Calgary and Edmonton airports dropped 5.6 per cent during the first four months of 2025 from year-earlier levels.
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And it's not just Canadian flyers showing their displeasure with the trade war by shifting their travel patterns.
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Through April, the number of Canadians returning from the U.S. by both air and road fell 22 per cent, and for Alberta, it decreased eight per cent from the same period last year, said ATB deputy chief economist Rob Roach.
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The trade conflict will lead to more Albertans travelling to other countries outside the U.S., but it will also likely see more consumers taking vacations and spending their tourism dollars inside the country, Roach said in an interview.
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'I do think it's a temporary thing, but it will last and go (on) as long as the trade war is hot,' he said Wednesday.
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'They are still tariffs and we are one tweet away — or Truth Social post away — from this blowing up again. So, until there's a sense that things are back to normal, I think we'll see this reflected in the actual numbers.'
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After Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Trump in Washington earlier this month, the annexation discussion subsided from the White House.
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However, the U.S. president mentioned it again on social media Tuesday, saying Canada could join his country's Golden Dome defence system for $61 billion but it would cost 'ZERO DOLLARS if they become our cherished 51st state. They are considering our offer!'
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How long could a travel boycott continue?
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'We do assume that at some point in time, there will be some kind of agreement, hopefully,' von Hoensbroech added.
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'What we have seen in the past in our industry is that whenever there's a change in demand pattern for political reasons, it's usually transitional, and long-term demand trends usually flow back.'
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Susan Bell, a senior vice-president with consultancy Rystad Energy, said the decline in travel to the U.S. isn't just coming from Canada, but also from fewer travellers coming from other countries — and it's showing up in less jet fuel demand.
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About 20 per cent of U.S. aviation fuel demand is typically tied to international flights.
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