MINISO Group Holding Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
It's been a sad week for MINISO Group Holding Limited (NYSE:MNSO), who've watched their investment drop 12% to US$18.29 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of CN¥4.4b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 31% to hit CN¥1.36 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from MINISO Group Holding's 22 analysts is for revenues of CN¥20.8b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 3.5% to CN¥8.28. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥21.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥9.73 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.
View our latest analysis for MINISO Group Holding
The consensus price target held steady at US$23.47, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MINISO Group Holding at US$30.94 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.49. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MINISO Group Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting MINISO Group Holding's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 24% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 16% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that MINISO Group Holding is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$23.47, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for MINISO Group Holding going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for MINISO Group Holding that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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