Why a tentative stock market makes sense
For the Indian stock market, it's been a jagged past fortnight or so, with the benchmark index showing moderate volatility post-Operation Sindoor. On Tuesday, the BSE Sensex fell 0.76% to 81,551.63 after rising in the previous two sessions. Indeed, the index has swung between gains and losses.
Also Read: Mint Quick Edit | India's military strike didn't faze its stock market
The swings are not too sharp, but it's hard to ignore the cloud of uncertainty that hangs over its direction. While rises are triggering profit booking and dips are being bought into, eyes seem set on US tariff policy for broad cues on the index's future course.
Also Read: Devina Mehra: Trump stocks? They're mythical at best in this new era of uncertainty
Although America's 50% tariff threat aimed at the EU being held off till July was celebrated globally, a day of reckoning for world trade still lies ahead. Washington's disapproval of Apple's plan to import more India-made iPhones has dashed hopes that it wasn't too serious about a push for manufacturing self-sufficiency. Signals from the US have left investors puzzled about what kind of trade reset to expect and what it will mean for businesses.
Also Read: The certainty of uncertainty calls for enhanced economic vigilance
True, India is far less exposed to global upheavals, but rapid economic growth still hinges on access to markets abroad. It's easy to empathize with investors who are unsure of outcomes.
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India Today
23 minutes ago
- India Today
News Menu, June 23: Iran threatens Strait of Hormuz closure, rain alert for Delhi
Good morning. On June 23, 1980, Sanjay Gandhi died in a plane crash in New Delhi. A trained pilot and instructor, he was piloting a new aircraft, a Pitts S-2A, when it lost control and crashed shortly after takeoff from the Safdarjung Airport. The accident occurred around 8 AM, and Sanjay, who was 33 years old, was killed instantly. The crash was a significant event, given Sanjay's prominent role as a political figure and son of then-Prime Minister Indira Today presents a news menu dominated by fighter planes, bloodshed and fears of global geopolitical and oil crises amid escalating tension in the Middle Raita: Iran Threatens Strait of Hormuz ClosureIran's parliament approved closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point handling 20% of global oil consumption, following US strikes codenamed 'Operation Midnight Hammer' on its nuclear sites. The closure awaits final approval from Iran's top security authority. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, heading to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, called the US and Israel's actions a 'big red line.' The US, through Pentagon chief Hegseth, described the strikes as 'intentionally limited' and not aimed at regime change, involving over 125 aircraft and 75 munitions. UN Secretary General Antnio Guterres warned, 'Humanity has opened gates to hell.' EU Foreign Ministers will discuss the crisis on Monday, while the US has asked China to Take: Iran's defiance and US aggression mark a pivotal moment in the conflict. If Iran goes ahead with its plan to block the Strait of Hormuz, it will force the US to initiate steps to open up the choke dependent on imported oil, faces potential supply risks, though it placed bigger orders with Russia in June. The Nifty and Sensex will be under scrutiny for reactions to escalating tensions, while global indices like S&P 500 and Nasdaq brace for PM Narendra Modi spoke with Iranian President Pezeshkian, expressing deep concern over US airstrikes and urging immediate de-escalation through dialogue. Modi reiterated India's commitment to regional peace, stating, 'India is on the side of peace and humanity.'Political Spice: Bihar's Election Battle Heats UpThe BJP declared Nitish Kumar as its Chief Minister face for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, aiming to quell speculation over leadership. RJD's Tejashwi Yadav called Nitish 'tired' and a 'burden,' ruling out his return to the Lalu Prasad Yadav is poised to become the party's national president for another term on other political news, by-election results for Kadi, Visavadar, Kaliganj, and Ludhiana West are due Sizzler: Karnataka's Corruption AllegationsadvertisementCongress MLA BR Patil's leaked audio sparked a storm, alleging corruption in Karnataka's house allotments. He stood by his claims, while Minister HK Patil criticised the government over illegal mining, citing a Rs 1.5 lakh crore loss due to 'systematic loot.'Celebrity Soup: Vijay Deverakonda's Legal TroubleActor Vijay Deverakonda faces a case under the SC/ST Act at Rayadurgam Police Station, following complaints from tribal associations over his remarks on the CBFC demanded a title change for the film JSK - Janaki Vs State of Kerala, starring Union Minister Suresh Mix: Weather AlertsDelhi: IMD issues a 'yellow' warning for rain and thunderstorms on Monday, with monsoons expected in Delhi and Chandigarh within two States: Orange alert for heavy rainfall and widespread thunderstorms, per Bite: The June TragediesA cruel quirk of fate turned June into a tragic month for former PM Indira Gandhi. On June 25, 1975, she declared a nationwide emergency, leading to her downfall. Five years later, she lost Sanjay, her son and political heir, in the same month. And on June 5, 1984, she ordered Operation Bluestar in Amritsar's Golden Temple. The decision to send the Indian army into the shrine ultimately led to her assassination the same InMust Watch
Time of India
23 minutes ago
- Time of India
Fordoward Thinking
Iran may still negotiate with US, taking a long view, while skirmishing with Israel. Even if its nuclear infra is damaged, its knowhow isn't. But if the conflict spreads, welfare of 9mn Indians in the region will be New Delhi's first concern For two decades every United States administration said it might someday bomb Iran's enrichment plants. On Saturday night that 'someday' arrived. B-2 stealth bombers dropped 30,000-pound 'bunker buster' bombs while submarines and aircraft launched Tomahawks at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, the three most consequential nodes in Iran's IAEA monitored nuclear network. Trump declared that 'Fordow is gone', and that Tehran must 'agree to end this war'. The flourish was vintage Trump – muscular and headline grabbing. But behind the applause lines lies a strategic gamble whose downsides may echo far beyond Qom. Trump crossed a threshold earlier presidents tiptoed around, turning an Israel-Iran slugfest into a US-Iran confrontation. He insists the raid was a 'one-off', intended to cripple enrichment. Although neither US nor Israel has produced evidence that Iran was on the brink of building a bomb, the Pentagon's quick look report claims the strikes set the programme back by years at minimal cost. Physics, however, counsels humility. Centrifuges are hardware while enrichment expertise is software lodged in scientists' heads. Bombs can destroy cylinders but not knowledge. Hardliners in Tehran will now argue that only a nuclear weapon can deter the next bunker buster. Did the raid delay a bomb or make it inevitable? Iran accused US of a grave violation of the UN Charter, NPT and international law and vowed that it will not go unanswered. The easiest escalation is to menace the Strait of Hormuz through which about a fifth of global oil passes every day. Next may come missile salvos on Gulf energy infra or on US installations, and then the possible activation of proxies from Lebanon to Yemen. With Iran's parliament reportedly approving the closure of the strait, Brent could easily move past $100 a barrel. Oxford Economics projects $130 if flows are disrupted, a level that would push world inflation back toward 6%. Traders are already paying a war premium in afterhours quotes. Jerusalem meanwhile is jubilant. Netanyahu called the strike a bold decision. Strategically Israel has shifted part of the fight and the risk to Washington. If Iran retaliates, Americans rather than Israelis will calibrate the counterpunch. That is deterrence by entanglement in the short run. Over time it hands Iran a larger menu of US targets and risks dragging America into a war it does not want. Russia immediately cited the bombing as proof of US recklessness while Beijing called it a serious violation of international norms. Any condemning move at the Security Council will face a US veto. However, in the General Assembly the Global South is expected to side with Iran in significant numbers. For India the strike lands like a thunderclap at a cricket match. New Delhi has tried to balance a growing partnership with Washington, deep defence ties with Israel and consequential arrangements with Tehran, from the Chabahar port to International North-South Transit Corridor and once-robust crude imports. That balancing act has lately been criticised by the main opposition party. ● The immediate anxiety is economic. The Gulf supplies 54% of India's oil, generates about 40% of its remittances and accounts for more than $170bn in two-way trade. India imports more than 80% of its crude; every ten dollar rise in Brent adds about one billion dollars a month to the import bill and pressures the rupee. Consumer inflation just slipped below 5%; a Hormuz scare could undo that gain and complicate RBI's plan to cut rates. GOI is already moving to secure supplies, eyeing the strategic petroleum reserve and talking to several producers to ensure continuity. ● A second priority is the safety of nearly nine million Indians working in the region. Evacuation from Iran and Israel is underway. Operation Sankalp ships in the region can be helpful, if required. Diplomatically India has open channels with Washington, Tehran and Jerusalem, but leverage is thin while missiles fly. Still New Delhi may be able to offer discreet messages that help each side edge away from the brink, just like back-channel efforts by Qatar and Muscat. Meanwhile others such as Saudi Arabia and UAE are actively counselling restraint. The key actors need face-saving options. That also means Washington spelling out what de-escalation looks like. Would it accept enrichment capped below weapons grade? Does it envisage returning to the JCPOA framework with phased sanctions relief? Absent clarity Tehran will read 'time for peace' as code for surrender. In US, supporters have praised decisive action; critics have warned that the President had bypassed Congress and demanded a War Powers vote. Trump's boast that the mission was historic and limited is politically smart yet strategically ambiguous. If Iran swallows the blow and returns to talks the White House can claim victory. If Tehran retaliates Washington can strike again and say it had no choice. Either way the attack chips away at the nonproliferation regime and bets that humiliation will not ignite a wider war. The US entry into another West Asian conflict recalls 1991 and 2003, but this round involves nuclear facilities, peer power pushback and an energy hungry Global South. Fordow's tunnels may indeed be rubble, yet geopolitics rarely collapses neatly. US strikes may be tactically brilliant. Strategically they kick a radioactive can down a much steeper road. That road needs to be kept from becoming a cratered battlefield. The test is whether diplomacy can move faster than the bunker busters. The writer is former permanent representative of India to UN and served as an international civil servant at IAEA Facebook Twitter Linkedin Email Disclaimer Views expressed above are the author's own.
India Gazette
29 minutes ago
- India Gazette
India can play proactive role in stopping Iran-Israel war, says West Asia strategist Awwad
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