Machinery and olive oil: The economic impact of Trump's tariffs on Spain
When he's not disrupting the geopolitical order and rowing with foreign leaders, US President Donald Trump likes to focus on trade and his firm belief that the US has for decades been getting 'ripped off' by the rest of the world.
In fact, the President has stated many times that 'tariff', in his view, 'is the most beautiful word in the dictionary.'
Slapping trade tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China are a sign of Trump's confrontational approach to international relations, something he views very transactionally.
But in recent weeks Europe has also come into the crosshairs of Washington, with Trump pledging to put 25 percent tariffs on EU-made goods, a bloc he says was created to "screw the United States".
However, this isn't quite the same as putting tariffs on Chinese or Canadian goods. The EU is not a single country but a massive political and trading bloc made up of 27 member states, some of which have very different individual trading relationships with the US.
Germany, for example, is thought to be particularly exposed due its car exports.
But what about Spain? How would tariffs affect Spain and which sectors are most at risk?
What economic impact will Trump's tariffs have on Spain?
Starting with a big picture view, it seems that, comparatively speaking, it could be worse -- a few notable exceptions aside (more on that below).
In a report by Bankinter, Spanish Chamber of Commerce figures suggest that the impact of tariffs on the Spanish economy would be limited 'since our country is less exposed than other EU partners' and 'we import more than we export.'
While for the EU as a whole exports to the US account for almost 5 percent (4.6) of GDP, in Spain it's half that at just 2.3 percent.
Forecasts suggest that even in the worst case scenario, general tariffs of 25 percent could mean losses of up to €4.3 billion, which is equivalent to around 0.27 percent of GDP — not an insignificant number but not as bad as many might've feared.
Which sectors and products would be impacted most?
That said, there are few specific Spanish goods that might be more impacted by Trump's tariffs.
Spain's main exports to the US are products such as engine parts and other mechanical and electronic machinery.
It also exports a lot of semi-manufactured products like chemicals and pharmaceuticals, and, of course, agri-food products like olive oil.
According to economic forecasts, the sectors most affected by possible tariffs would be electrical machinery and equipment, which could see sales fall by 28 percent; chemical and pharmaceutical industry sales, which could fall by up to 16.5 percent; metallurgical exports (iron, steel and aluminium) could fall by up to 10.3 percent; and agri-food exports would see an overall fall of up to 6 percent, but in the case of certain products, such as olive oil, trade could 'collapse completely,' Bank Inter states.
Agricultural goods
On agricultural goods specifically, of all sectors Spain seems particularly exposed in terms of exports.
Agricultural products are reportedly next on Trump's tariff list, including many of those exported by Spain. Earlier this month, the President made clear to American farmers that they'll need to boost their production because tariffs will be applied to imports from April 2nd.
This announcement has caused some concern in Spain, as the agri-food industry stands to lose out on up to €3.5 billion in exports, according to data provided by the Ministry of Economy.
This will mainly be in olive oil, wine and table olive exports.
Rafael Pico, director of the Association of Olive Oil Exporters (Asoliva), told Spain's state broadcaster RTVE that blanket tariffs would be the best case scenario: 'we think that there will be no distortion in the international market because all countries will be treated the same, and in our case olive oil.'
Tariffs on agricultural products from all over the world is the least damaging scenario. It would be worse if these tariffs were applied only to the EU. Even more damaging, however, would be tariffs applied to specific imports from specific countries, as Trump already applied to Spain in his first term and which are still in force on table olives.
Antonio de Mora, secretary general of the Spanish Association of Exporters and Industrialists of Table Olives (Asemesa), says that 'any tariff imposed on Spain and not imposed on countries outside the EU would be seriously damaging for us.'
RTVE reports that the sector is already preparing and looking for new markets to replace what the United States potentially stops buying from April.
The same is true of wine and preserved food. Spain recorded wine exports worth €334 million and €420 million for sales of canned fruit and vegetables in 2024.
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