Gold set for historic 6-month rally after 23 years — Is it time to invest?
Gold prices are on the brink of achieving a rare milestone—a six-month winning streak not seen in over two decades. As of mid-June 2025, the precious metal has already climbed over 3% for the month, and if it closes June in the green, this would mark the first such streak since May 2002, according to Axis Securities.
The surge in gold prices is being driven by a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. A weaker US dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and heightened global tensions—particularly between Iran and Israel—have all contributed to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
In India, gold recently breached the ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams mark. While prices have slightly corrected from their all-time highs, they remain elevated and show resilience amid global volatility.
A Historic Signal for Long-Term Investors
Axis Securities highlights a striking historical pattern: in the past 75 years, gold has achieved a six-month winning run only 13 times. In 85% of those instances, prices surged over the following year, delivering average gains of nearly 50%. Over two years, returns nearly doubled, signaling a potentially strong upside for long-term investors.
'The six-month winning streak is historically a strong signal to increase gold allocation, especially as global de-dollarization and inflation fears persist,' Axis Securities noted.
Strong Fundamentals Add Support
Fundamentally, gold remains supported by central bank buying and continued investor demand due to economic and political uncertainty. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, remarked that while geopolitical tensions like the Iran-Israel conflict do spark short-term rallies, the broader bullish sentiment stems from enduring fundamentals.
'Safe-haven demand and central bank diversification away from the US dollar are key drivers. We maintain a constructive view on gold,' Menke said.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
From a technical standpoint, US gold prices are targeting the $3,600–$3,800 zone in the short term. Axis Securities advises swing traders to consider profit booking in that range, citing a potential dollar rebound. The crucial support level to watch is $3,245—below which, a correction toward $3,000 could materialize. For now, $3,289 remains the pivotal level to monitor before month-end.
In India, the current trading band for gold lies between ₹98,500 to ₹1,00,500, per Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities. He believes gold's trajectory will be influenced by the US Fed's rate decision, geopolitical developments, and global trade dynamics.
Conclusion: A Golden Opportunity or Time for Caution?
While historical trends and fundamentals point to continued strength in gold, investors should weigh their decisions carefully. Short-term traders may find opportunities to book profits, but for long-term holders, this could be an ideal time to diversify into gold—especially in a world increasingly skeptical of dollar dominance.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only. Please consult a certified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Mint
17 minutes ago
- Mint
Israel-Iran war: DMart to Eicher Motors— Jigar Patel of Anand Rathi recommends 3 stocks to buy for the short term
Stocks to buy for the short term: Indian stock market benchmarks, the Sensex and the Nifty 50, crashed over a per cent each in intraday trade on Monday, June 23, as Israel-Iran war escalates further, crude oil prices rise sharply and investors dump riskier equities and rush to safe haven assets. As it is difficult to predict the trajectory of the stock market amid rapidly changing geopolitical scenarios, Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, advises traders to remain vigilant. "A decisive breakout above 25,300 could pave the way for a sustained rally toward 25,500–25,600. Conversely, any faltering near current levels could signal renewed caution. On the downside, immediate support lies at 24,700, with a stronger floor near 24,450. Until confirmation is evident, restraint remains prudent near resistance zones," said Patel. Jigar Patel recommends buying shares of DMart, Eicher Motors and Biocon for the next two to three weeks. Over the past month, Eicher Motors has witnessed a healthy correction of approximately 12 per cent from its recent peak of ₹ 5,906. Notably, the stock has established a firm base over the last 15 trading sessions, consolidating between its 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages — a sign of stabilizing price action. In the latest session, Eicher decisively broke out of a dual descending trendline, supported by a steadily improving Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has consistently held above the 40 mark and now stands at 61.42. "The confluence of favourable technical indicators positions Eicher as an attractive long candidate. Traders may consider initiating positions in the ₹ 5,530–5,480 range, targeting ₹ 5,900, with a stop loss placed below ₹ 5,300," said Patel. Eicher Motors Following a steep decline from its recent high of ₹ 4,557, DMart has entered a consolidation phase, forming a strong base around the confluence of its 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (DEMA). Notably, the stock has triggered a bullish golden crossover, with the 50-DEMA moving above the 200-DEMA — a technically significant development often interpreted as a precursor to upward momentum. Adding weight to the bullish bias, the stock has also broken out of a descending trendline, indicating a potential trend reversal. "Given this confluence of positive technical signals, traders may consider initiating long positions in the ₹ 4,300–4,250 zone, with an upside potential toward ₹ 4,700. A stop loss should be maintained below ₹ 4,100 on a daily closing basis," Patel said. DMart Biocon has recently established a robust base around the confluence of its 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (DEMA), signalling price stability after a period of consolidation. A golden crossover — with the 50-DEMA crossing above the 200-DEMA — further reinforces the emerging bullish sentiment. On June 19, 2025, the stock also formed a bullish harami candlestick pattern, accompanied by a close above the R3 Camarilla monthly pivot, strengthening the technical outlook. This alignment of key indicators suggests a potential upside move. "Traders may consider initiating long positions in the ₹ 353–348 range, with a projected target of ₹ 385. A protective stop loss should be placed below ₹ 332 on a daily closing basis to manage risk effectively," said Patel. Biocon Read all market-related news here Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.
Economic Times
35 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Gold Price Prediction: War tensions push yellow metal down by Rs 1,900 from peak. Turbulence ahead?
Live Events How to trade gold? Manoj Kumar Jain suggested the following ranges for gold and silver on MCX: Gold has support at Rs 98,660-98,280 and resistance at Rs 99,400-99,850 Silver has support at Rs 1,05,400-1,04,650 and resistance at Rs 1,07,000-1,07,800 Gold rates in physical markets Gold Price today in Delhi Gold Price today in Mumbai Gold Price today in Chennai Gold Price today in Hyderabad (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Amid geopolitical tensions and a war scenario, Gold August futures contracts at MCX opened flat at Rs 99,175/10 grams, which is up merely by Rs 66 or 0.07%. However, the prices of the yellow metal have slipped by Rs 1,900 from their all-time high of Rs 1,01,078/10 silver July futures showed strength, opening higher by Rs 503 or 0.47% at Rs 1,06,727/ gold and silver prices hovered near $3,360 and $36 per ounce, respectively, on Monday, remaining volatile as tensions escalated in the Middle East after the U.S. joined Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear Trump warned of further military action if Iran resists peace, intensifying fears and boosting demand for safe-haven Friday, gold and silver settled on a weaker note in the domestic market while settling on a mixed note in the international markets. Gold August futures contract settled at Rs 99,109 per 10 grams with a loss of 0.22%, and silver July futures contract settled at Rs 1,06,224 per kilogram with a loss of 1.09%.Gold and silver showed very high price volatility and slipped from their highs amid the hawkish policy stance of the U.S. Fed. The U.S. Fed maintained a status quo on interest rates and also downgraded growth also show concerns about higher inflation due to U.S. trade and silver also plunged after the U.S. President said that it will take two weeks to decide whether to intervene in the Israel-Iran war or not. However, the US stroke on Iran's three main nuclear facilities over the comes at a fragile moment for the global dollar index is also facing resistance at higher levels and supporting prices of gold and silver. Today, the US Dollar Index, DXY, was hovering near the 99.01 mark, gaining 0.31 or 0.31%.'We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the dollar index and geo-political tensions and Chairman's testify but gold prices could hold its support level of $3,280 per troy ounce and silver prices could also hold $34.40 per troy ounce levels on a weekly closing basis,' said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.'Investors now turn to upcoming U.S. economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including a two-day congressional testimony by Chair Jerome Powell, to gauge the Fed's response amid rising risks from tariffs and conflict,' believes Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta suggests buying silver around Rs 95,500 with a stop loss of Rs 95,000 for a target of Rs 96, gold (22 carat) prices in Delhi stand at Rs 57,216/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,968/8 gold (22 carat) prices in Mumbai stand at Rs 57,576/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 61,416/8 gold (22 carat) prices in Chennai stand at Rs 56,936/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,744/8 gold (22 carat) prices in Hyderabad stand at Rs 56,880/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,576/8 grams.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Time of India
40 minutes ago
- Time of India
Gold Price Prediction: War tensions push yellow metal down by Rs 1,900 from peak. Turbulence ahead?
Amid geopolitical tensions and a war scenario, Gold August futures contracts at MCX opened flat at Rs 99,175/10 grams, which is up merely by Rs 66 or 0.07%. However, the prices of the yellow metal have slipped by Rs 1,900 from their all-time high of Rs 1,01,078/10 gm. However, silver July futures showed strength, opening higher by Rs 503 or 0.47% at Rs 1,06,727/kg. Internationally, gold and silver prices hovered near $3,360 and $36 per ounce, respectively, on Monday, remaining volatile as tensions escalated in the Middle East after the U.S. joined Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear sites. President Trump warned of further military action if Iran resists peace, intensifying fears and boosting demand for safe-haven assets. On Friday, gold and silver settled on a weaker note in the domestic market while settling on a mixed note in the international markets. Gold August futures contract settled at Rs 99,109 per 10 grams with a loss of 0.22%, and silver July futures contract settled at Rs 1,06,224 per kilogram with a loss of 1.09%. Gold and silver showed very high price volatility and slipped from their highs amid the hawkish policy stance of the U.S. Fed. The U.S. Fed maintained a status quo on interest rates and also downgraded growth outlooks. They also show concerns about higher inflation due to U.S. trade tariffs. Gold and silver also plunged after the U.S. President said that it will take two weeks to decide whether to intervene in the Israel-Iran war or not. However, the US stroke on Iran's three main nuclear facilities over the weekend. This comes at a fragile moment for the global economy. The dollar index is also facing resistance at higher levels and supporting prices of gold and silver. Today, the US Dollar Index, DXY, was hovering near the 99.01 mark, gaining 0.31 or 0.31%. 'We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the dollar index and geo-political tensions and Chairman's testify but gold prices could hold its support level of $3,280 per troy ounce and silver prices could also hold $34.40 per troy ounce levels on a weekly closing basis,' said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research. 'Investors now turn to upcoming U.S. economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including a two-day congressional testimony by Chair Jerome Powell, to gauge the Fed's response amid rising risks from tariffs and conflict,' believes Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities. How to trade gold? Manoj Kumar Jain suggested the following ranges for gold and silver on MCX: Gold has support at Rs 98,660-98,280 and resistance at Rs 99,400-99,850 Silver has support at Rs 1,05,400-1,04,650 and resistance at Rs 1,07,000-1,07,800 Jain suggests buying silver around Rs 95,500 with a stop loss of Rs 95,000 for a target of Rs 96,650. Gold rates in physical markets Gold Price today in Delhi Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Delhi stand at Rs 57,216/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,968/8 grams. Gold Price today in Mumbai Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Mumbai stand at Rs 57,576/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 61,416/8 grams. Gold Price today in Chennai Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Chennai stand at Rs 56,936/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,744/8 grams. Also read: Why stock market is falling today? Key factors behind 900-point Sensex crash, Nifty below 24,850 Gold Price today in Hyderabad Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Hyderabad stand at Rs 56,880/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,576/8 grams. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
