Latest news with #AxisSecurities
Economic Times
10 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Axis Securities predicts Nifty could touch 27,600 in bull case by March 2026
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, we caught up with Neeraj Chadawar, Head of Fundamental and Quantitative Research at Axis Securities, to decode the market's direction for the rest of FY25 and beyond. With India's domestic growth trajectory holding strong despite global headwinds, Chadawar outlines why the Nifty 50 could scale up to 27,600 in a bull case scenario by March 2026. He shares insights on macro trends, policy moves, sector rotations, and why largecap, domestic-facing sectors are poised to lead the next leg of the market rally. Plus, his take on interest rates, rural revival, institutional flows, and what retail investors should do amid rising FOMO. Edited Excerpts – ADVERTISEMENT Q) Thanks for taking the time out. After a stable May, the market turned volatile in June. 1H2025 has been robust with Nifty closing in the red in just 2 out of the last 5 months; however, we still underperformed EM peers in 2025. How do you see markets in the medium-to-long term?A) Despite external risks, India's domestic growth trajectory remains intact, with key macroeconomic factors supporting a stronger FY26 versus FY25. Both the RBI and the government are providing support to the Indian economy through policy measures such as a 50 basis point CRR cut in December 2024, 100 basis points of rate cuts so far, improved bank liquidity, an additional 100 basis points CRR cut from September 2025 onwards, dividends from the RBI, a consumption boost provided in the budget, and an uptick in government Capex spending. Furthermore, macroeconomic uncertainty has reduced significantly over the last month. Most significant events are now behind us, with the majority of negative concerns regarding the domestic economy and earnings already factored into the forward, the market will closely monitor global developments around: 1) the U.S. government's policies, 2) the reciprocal tax, 3) further rate cuts by the U.S. Fed in 2025 (based on growth and inflation dynamics), and 4) the direction of currency and oil prices in the remaining part of 2025. ADVERTISEMENT These developments will continue to challenge market direction and valuations in the near term. Hence, we believe the market needs to navigate through another couple of months smoothly before entering into a concrete growth a result, we expect near-term consolidation in the market, with breadth remaining narrow in the immediate term. Our focus will remain on style and sector rotation, along with earnings recovery. ADVERTISEMENT Going forward, we expect the Indian market to be divided between domestic-facing and export-facing sectors, but the risk-reward balance would favor domestic-facing sectors due to the minimal to low impact of the reciprocal sectors will be in a wait-and-watch mode, and the impact and developments related to the reciprocal tax will be closely tracked. ADVERTISEMENT Based on the current development, we present 3 scenarios for the Nifty 50 by Mar'26:Bull Case: Nifty target of 27,600 by Mar'26, valued at 21x, assuming a Goldilocks scenario and private capex boostBase Case: Nifty target of 26,300 by Mar'26, valued at 20x on Mar'27 earnings (Recently, we have upgraded our Base case multiple to 20x from 19x earlier, supported by the favourable addition of high PE stocks in the index, in which Jio Financial and Eternal have replaced Britannia and BPCL). ADVERTISEMENT Bear Case: Nifty target of 22,300 by Mar'26, valued at 17x, assuming policy shifts, inflation challenges, and recession risks. Q) What is your take on the outcome of the MPC meeting in June? What is the trajectory you foresee for rates in 2025? A) It was a double delight from the RBI in Jun'25 MPC. The RBI's 50bps rate cut surprised markets, which expected a third straight 25bps cut. The regulator is in favour of front-loading rate cuts to support it has now changed its stance from Accommodative to Neutral, providing limited scope for further rate cuts. We believe any policy action on rates will be largely data-driven going RBI also surprised with a CRR cut of 100bps in four tranches, effective from Sep'25, which will provide more liquidity in the system, supporting credit growth for banks, (especially in H2FY26, which is characterised by the festive season).In BFSI, the pick-up in credit growth, which was subdued as banks exited FY25, remains are pinned on a recovery in H2FY26, supported by falling interest rates, consumption boost from the tax rate cut, expectations of a strong monsoon, and potential recovery in demand in the unsecured segments as stress subsides. Q) Which themes look attractive to you for the next 6-12 months amid trade war fears, a strong dollar and a possible scenario of falling interest rates? A) The valuations appear attractive for the Largecaps vs. the broader market, where the margin of safety is still this backdrop, we believe that the Largecap stocks, 'quality' stocks, monopolies, market leaders in their respective domains, and domestically-focused sectors may outperform the market in the near on the current developments, we 1) Continue to like and overweight Largecap private banks, telecom, consumption, hospitals, and interest-rate proxies,2) upgrading certain plays in retail consumption and FMCG sectors based on the recovery expectations in FY26, 3) prefer certain capex-oriented plays that look attractive in light of the recent price correction and reasonable growth visibility in the domestic market in FY26. Q) The IMD has predicted a normal monsoon in 2025 – do you see this supporting consumption stocks/auto stocks? A)Rural as a theme remains watchful for upcoming quarters based on the normal monsoon expectations, subdued inflation, and the pick-up in government spending. This theme has seen a long period of underperformance and may revive in FY26. It would also support entry-level 2-wheeler demand, which has lagged since Covid-19. Q) How do you see flows – FIIs have recently turned positive on Indian markets, while DIIs have supported the rally. Do you see a reversal of flows into Indian markets? A) FY26 is expected to present a more constructive environment for foreign flows compared to FY25, driven by improving domestic fundamentals in terms of earnings expectations and proactive policy of the earnings-related concerns are factored in FY25, and here onwards, the FY26 earnings prospects have improved will be supported by the RBI's liquidity support, including a CRR cut, the interest rate cut of 100 bps, which should support a recovery in corporate earnings in FY26, and a consumption-oriented Union said, global macro risks continue to warrant close attention. While India remains relatively better placed among emerging markets, foreign investors are likely to take a calibrated approach, balancing optimism around India's structural story with caution around global headwinds. Q) Is there any theme or sector where one should avoid fresh investments in the current environment? A) We continue to maintain underweight in export-oriented themes with a wait-and-watch approach and will closely monitor emerging developments related to the continue to maintain our underweight stance in the IT sector, as we foresee a slowdown in overall IT spending in the US market and a probable delay in discretionary spending, which may pose a downgrade risk in the upcoming quarters. Guidance and commentary remain critical for the sector going forward. Q) What is your call on the small & midcap space? Are they still trading at expensive valuations, and are large caps still a better play? A) The sector and style rotation will play a meaningful role in alpha generation going forward. The valuations appear attractive for the Largecaps vs. the broader market, where the margin of safety is still certain pockets in the Mid and Smallcap universe are looking attractive after the correction and the expectation of the earnings recovery in the near term, it will be a bottom-up stock picking market, and once we progress more towards FY26, more and more sectors are likely to join the rally based on the revival expectation of the domestic economic this backdrop, the broader market may deliver double-digit returns in the next one year. Q) Many investors who stayed on the sidelines at the beginning of 2025 and are now experiencing FOMO as markets have seen a significant rally, but it is still down by about 5% from the highs. Should they adopt staggered buying, keep cash or do a lump sum investment? A) We suggest staggered buying for the remaining part of FY26 with a 'Buy on Dips' strategy as the prospects for the domestic economy are slowly and gradually improving. Q) COVID cases are rising. Can this fuel hospital stocks, or should investors keep an eye on that theme? What are your views? A) We continue to like hospitals as a structural theme for the next couple of years, led by brownfield expansions, increasing insurance penetration, and the pick-up in medical tourism. All these factors are expected to remain sustainable over the next two to three years and will significantly drive the sector's growth. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Mint
10 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Nifty 50 Trading Strategy: Analysts suggest Bear Put Spread options strategy for 26 June expiry
The Indian stock market traded higher after opening flat on Friday amid mixed global cues, with the benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, gaining nearly half a percent each. The Nifty 50 index rose close to 24,900 level, recovering from the previous session's loss. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bharti Airtel, Jio Financial Services, Trend and Shriram Finance were among the top gainers in the Nifty 50 index. In Thursday's session, the Nifty 50 declined 18.80 points, or 0.08%, to close at 24,793.25. The formed a doji candle and continues to stay sideways in the range of 24,500 and 25,200 levels. In the options market, the highest Open Interest (OI) on the Call side is at the 25,000 strike, followed by 24,900 and 25,100, which could act as resistance levels, according to Axis Securities. On the Put side, the highest Open Interest is at 24,800, followed by 24,700 and 24,500, which may serve as support levels. The premium for the At-the-Money option is ₹ 412, indicating a likely trading range for the week between 24,300 and 25,200, Axis Securities said. Axis Securities has suggested a Bear Put Spread strategy for Nifty options contracts expiring on 26 June 2025, reflecting a moderately bearish outlook. A Bear Put Spread involves buying a Put option with higher strike and simultaneously selling a Put option with lower strike to offset part of the upfront cost. This strategy is characterized by limited risk and limited profit potential, making it suitable for traders anticipating a moderate decline in the underlying Nifty 50 index. Buy Nifty 24,800 Put @ ₹ 190 - 200 Sell Nifty 24,550 Put @ ₹ 110 - 120 The strategy involves buying one lot of the 24,800 strike Put option and simultaneously selling one lot of the 24,550 strike Put option, according to Axis Securities. According to analysts at Axis Securities, the potential maximum risk for this strategy is ₹ 6,000, whereas the potential maximum reward is ₹ 12,750. 'Traders may consider deploying this spread strategy to achieve moderate returns while maintaining controlled risk and reward,' the brokerage firm said. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Mint
11 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Stocks to buy: Rajesh Palviya of Axis Sec suggests Swiggy, Wipro, Bharti Airtel shares today
Stock market today: India's stock indices opened slightly higher on Friday, driven by financial sector gains after the central bank relaxed project financing regulations, though rising tensions between Israel and Iran limited further increases. As of 9:23 IST, the Nifty 50 had increased by 0.17% to reach 24,836.15, while the BSE Sensex climbed by 0.22% to 81,540.81. Global market sentiment remained weak following reports of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which led to retaliatory missile and drone attacks by Iran. The White House announced that President Donald Trump would make a decision within two weeks regarding US military support for Israel. Rajesh Palviya of Axis Securities recommends Swiggy Ltd, Wipro Ltd, and Bharti Airtel Ltd. Here's what Palviya says about the overall market. In the previous session, Nifty 50 closed at 24,793, experiencing a modest dip of 19 points. The daily chart painted a picture of uncertainty, showing a Doji candlestick that signifies a standoff among market participants, where bullish and bearish forces struggle for dominance. Accompanying this was a small negative candle, adorned with subtle upper and lower shadows, further hinting at a period of turbulent, sideways movement. After a sequence of climbing peaks in recent weeks, Nifty 50 now appears to have formed a new lower peak at 24,982, signaling a potential weakening as it transitions from higher highs to lower highs. Presently, Nifty 50 is hovering near an immediate support level of 24,700. Should it slip below this crucial support, it could tumble toward the next support level at 24,500-24,400 in the near term. Conversely, if it manages to break through and hold above the resistance level of 25,000, it could ignite a wave of renewed buying enthusiasm, breathing fresh life into the market atmosphere. On the daily and weekly charts, Swiggy share price has experienced a trend reversal, forming a series of higher tops and bottom formations. The stock is well placed above its 20, 50 and 100-day SMAs, which reconfirms a bullish trend. The past couple of months' rising volumes signify increased participation. The daily and weekly strength indicator RSI indicates rising strength. Investors should consider buying, holding, and accumulating this stock. Its expected upside is ₹ 405-435, and its downside support zone is the ₹ 360-345 levels. On the daily and weekly charts, the stock has experienced a trend reversal, forming a series of higher tops and bottom formations. The 20 and 50-day SMA positive crossover signifies bullish sentiments and a positive trend. The past couple of weeks have seen rising volumes indicating increased participation. The daily and weekly strength indicator RSI indicates rising strength. Investors should consider buying, holding, and accumulating this stock. Its expected upside is ₹ 276-290, and its downside support zone is the ₹ 257-255 levels. Bharti Airtel share price is in a strong uptrend across all time frames; however, for the past couple of months, the stock has been consolidating within 1900-1800 levels, representing sideways movement. And hence any either side breakout may indicate further direction. As the stock is well placed above its 20, 50, 100 and 200-day SMAs and these averages are also inching up along with prices, which signals a higher probability for a range upward breakout. The daily, weekly and monthly strength indicator RSI indicates rising strength. Investors should consider buying, holding, and accumulating this stock. Its expected upside is 1,950-2,000, and its downside support zone is the 1,840-1,800 levels. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Time of India
11 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Buy Sanathan Textiles, target price Rs 490: Axis Securities
Axis Securities has a buy call on Sanathan Textiles with a target price of Rs 490. The current market price of Sanathan Textiles is Rs 447.9. The time period given by the analyst is 3-6 months when Sanathan Textiles price can reach the defined target. Sanathan Textiles, incorporated in 2005, is a Small Cap company with a market cap of Rs 3778.35 crore, operating in the General sector. Sanathan Textiles' key products/revenue segments include Textiles, Scrap and Export Incentives for the year ending 31-Mar-2024. Financials For the quarter ended 31-03-2025, the company has reported a Consolidated Total Income of Rs 735.91 crore, down -1.69 % from last quarter Total Income of Rs 748.57 crore and down -3.88 % from last year same quarter Total Income of Rs 765.63 crore. The company has reported net profit after tax of Rs 43.65 crore in the latest quarter. The company's top management includes Vrajlal Dattani, Vallabhdas Dattani, Vrajdas Dattani, Vrajdas Dattani, Sarkar, Thanawalla, Vora, Aggarwal. Company has Walker Chandiok & Co. LLP as its auditors. As on 31-03-2025, the company has a total of 8 crore shares outstanding. Live Events Investment Rationale While newly listed, Sanathan holds rich experience in the Industry and has built long-term relationships with major clients. Axis Securities expects the company to post a revenue growth of 47%/31% in FY26/FY27, with steady improvement in margins. Accordingly, the brokerage recommends a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 490/share, implying an upside of 11% from the CMP.
Time of India
12 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Axis Securities predicts Nifty could touch 27,600 in bull case by March 2026
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, we caught up with Neeraj Chadawar, Head of Fundamental and Quantitative Research at Axis Securities , to decode the market's direction for the rest of FY25 and India's domestic growth trajectory holding strong despite global headwinds, Chadawar outlines why the Nifty 50 could scale up to 27,600 in a bull case scenario by March shares insights on macro trends, policy moves, sector rotations, and why largecap, domestic-facing sectors are poised to lead the next leg of the market his take on interest rates, rural revival, institutional flows, and what retail investors should do amid rising FOMO. Edited Excerpts –A) Despite external risks, India's domestic growth trajectory remains intact, with key macroeconomic factors supporting a stronger FY26 versus the RBI and the government are providing support to the Indian economy through policy measures such as a 50 basis point CRR cut in December 2024, 100 basis points of rate cuts so far, improved bank liquidity, an additional 100 basis points CRR cut from September 2025 onwards, dividends from the RBI, a consumption boost provided in the budget, and an uptick in government Capex macroeconomic uncertainty has reduced significantly over the last month. Most significant events are now behind us, with the majority of negative concerns regarding the domestic economy and earnings already factored into the forward, the market will closely monitor global developments around: 1) the U.S. government's policies, 2) the reciprocal tax, 3) further rate cuts by the U.S. Fed in 2025 (based on growth and inflation dynamics), and 4) the direction of currency and oil prices in the remaining part of developments will continue to challenge market direction and valuations in the near term. Hence, we believe the market needs to navigate through another couple of months smoothly before entering into a concrete growth a result, we expect near-term consolidation in the market, with breadth remaining narrow in the immediate term. Our focus will remain on style and sector rotation, along with earnings forward, we expect the Indian market to be divided between domestic-facing and export-facing sectors, but the risk-reward balance would favor domestic-facing sectors due to the minimal to low impact of the reciprocal sectors will be in a wait-and-watch mode, and the impact and developments related to the reciprocal tax will be closely on the current development, we present 3 scenarios for the Nifty 50 by Mar'26:Bull Case: Nifty target of 27,600 by Mar'26, valued at 21x, assuming a Goldilocks scenario and private capex boostBase Case: Nifty target of 26,300 by Mar'26, valued at 20x on Mar'27 earnings (Recently, we have upgraded our Base case multiple to 20x from 19x earlier, supported by the favourable addition of high PE stocks in the index, in which Jio Financial and Eternal have replaced Britannia and BPCL).Bear Case: Nifty target of 22,300 by Mar'26, valued at 17x, assuming policy shifts, inflation challenges, and recession risks. MPC meeting in June? What is the trajectory you foresee for rates in 2025?A) It was a double delight from the RBI in Jun'25 MPC. The RBI's 50bps rate cut surprised markets, which expected a third straight 25bps cut. The regulator is in favour of front-loading rate cuts to support it has now changed its stance from Accommodative to Neutral, providing limited scope for further rate cuts. We believe any policy action on rates will be largely data-driven going RBI also surprised with a CRR cut of 100bps in four tranches, effective from Sep'25, which will provide more liquidity in the system, supporting credit growth for banks, (especially in H2FY26, which is characterised by the festive season).In BFSI, the pick-up in credit growth, which was subdued as banks exited FY25, remains are pinned on a recovery in H2FY26, supported by falling interest rates, consumption boost from the tax rate cut, expectations of a strong monsoon, and potential recovery in demand in the unsecured segments as stress subsides.A) The valuations appear attractive for the Largecaps vs. the broader market, where the margin of safety is still this backdrop, we believe that the Largecap stocks, 'quality' stocks, monopolies, market leaders in their respective domains, and domestically-focused sectors may outperform the market in the near on the current developments, we 1) Continue to like and overweight Largecap private banks, telecom, consumption, hospitals, and interest-rate proxies,2) upgrading certain plays in retail consumption and FMCG sectors based on the recovery expectations in FY26, 3) prefer certain capex-oriented plays that look attractive in light of the recent price correction and reasonable growth visibility in the domestic market in FY26.A)Rural as a theme remains watchful for upcoming quarters based on the normal monsoon expectations, subdued inflation, and the pick-up in government spending. This theme has seen a long period of underperformance and may revive in FY26. It would also support entry-level 2-wheeler demand, which has lagged since Covid-19.A) FY26 is expected to present a more constructive environment for foreign flows compared to FY25, driven by improving domestic fundamentals in terms of earnings expectations and proactive policy of the earnings-related concerns are factored in FY25, and here onwards, the FY26 earnings prospects have improved will be supported by the RBI's liquidity support, including a CRR cut, the interest rate cut of 100 bps, which should support a recovery in corporate earnings in FY26, and a consumption-oriented Union said, global macro risks continue to warrant close attention. While India remains relatively better placed among emerging markets, foreign investors are likely to take a calibrated approach, balancing optimism around India's structural story with caution around global headwinds.A) We continue to maintain underweight in export-oriented themes with a wait-and-watch approach and will closely monitor emerging developments related to the continue to maintain our underweight stance in the IT sector, as we foresee a slowdown in overall IT spending in the US market and a probable delay in discretionary spending, which may pose a downgrade risk in the upcoming quarters. Guidance and commentary remain critical for the sector going forward.A) The sector and style rotation will play a meaningful role in alpha generation going forward. The valuations appear attractive for the Largecaps vs. the broader market, where the margin of safety is still certain pockets in the Mid and Smallcap universe are looking attractive after the correction and the expectation of the earnings recovery in the near term, it will be a bottom-up stock picking market, and once we progress more towards FY26, more and more sectors are likely to join the rally based on the revival expectation of the domestic economic this backdrop, the broader market may deliver double-digit returns in the next one year.A) We suggest staggered buying for the remaining part of FY26 with a 'Buy on Dips' strategy as the prospects for the domestic economy are slowly and gradually improving.A) We continue to like hospitals as a structural theme for the next couple of years, led by brownfield expansions, increasing insurance penetration, and the pick-up in medical tourism. All these factors are expected to remain sustainable over the next two to three years and will significantly drive the sector's growth.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
