Why these 5 NHL restricted free agents could become trade candidates this offseason
There will likely be some sticker shock when fans see some of the contracts players earn this offseason as we enter a new era of NHL salary cap growth. This inflationary climate means some teams have tough decisions to make on specific restricted free agents who are in line for significant raises.
If the club is fully sold on the player's ability and long-term fit — and if the player is willing to stay — it's usually straightforward to agree to a lengthy contract extension that makes both sides happy. However, sometimes there is a gap between the agent's and the team's perceived value of the player or their future role, and that's when matters can become complicated.
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For example, if a player breaks out in their platform season, the surging cost of that RFA's next contract can scare a team. In that case, they could look to explore a 'prove it' two or three-year bridge deal that clocks in at a lower cap hit instead of making a massive long-term commitment. In extreme cases, teams can sell high on the player and trade them, similar to what the Buffalo Sabres did when they dealt Casey Mittelstadt to the Colorado Avalanche at the 2024 trade deadline.
It's widely assumed that the Detroit Red Wings' surprising decision to trade Filip Hronek to the Vancouver Canucks in 2023, when he was in the middle of a breakout, was at least partially motivated by the fear of what his next contract in the 2024 offseason would cost, as another example.
Teams must be more proactive and delicate when handling their RFAs, especially after the St. Louis Blues successfully offer-sheeted Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg last summer. The idea of an offer-sheet frenzy this offseason seems overblown, but it is a more legitimate leverage ploy for players in negotiations than ever before.
Here, we will examine five fascinating RFA quandaries teams will face this offseason. This is not meant to be a list of players who are guaranteed to be out the door in summer trades; it's just that their contract situations are complex and will require extra thought and consideration. A favorable contract extension would probably be the No. 1 preference for these teams, but if talks go sideways, it could open the door to the possibility of a trade.
Contract projections: eight years at $8 million (Evolving-Hockey), five years at $7.2 million (AFP Analytics)
Bowen Byram doesn't seem like an ideal long-term fit in Buffalo for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, the Sabres already have $19.35 million committed long-term to Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, two offensively gifted left-shot defensemen. It probably doesn't make sense for Buffalo to dole out another huge contract to a third left-shot defenseman with a similar offensively oriented skill set. Byram switched agents earlier this month, too, which can sometimes be a sign that a player isn't entirely happy with their situation.
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Byram's precise value as a player is also tricky to determine. The 23-year-old has tantalizing skating and puck-moving skills, and he flashed star-level potential during Colorado's 2022 Stanley Cup victory, and yet his underlying play-driving numbers have been mediocre since then, even going back to the end of his tenure with the Avalanche. This year, he drove strong results when paired with Dahlin but struggled when paired with anybody else.
It'd be risky to potentially commit a $7.5-8 million cap hit on a long-term deal to a defenseman who, while young and talented, hasn't proven he can drive his own pair yet.
The Sabres would be best off either trading Byram for a haul this summer or inking him to a cheaper, short-term bridge contract in the $6-6.5 million AAV range, though the latter would come with its own risk since any bridge deal longer than a year would walk him to straight to unrestricted free agency.
Contract projections: eight years at $7.7 million (Evolving-Hockey), seven years at $7.4 million (AFP Analytics)
Normally, you'd think a homegrown 23-year-old center coming off a 60-point season would be off-limits for other teams. Young top-six centers are the kind of core pieces that organizations build long-term around. However, Marco Rossi's situation in Minnesota has become strange and his future is uncertain.
Rossi was inexplicably buried on the fourth line during the Wild's first-round loss despite excelling in a top-six role throughout the entire regular season. He averaged just 11:08 a game in the playoffs, a far cry from the 18:15 he averaged during the regular season. Rossi told reporters he was 'very disappointed' by his usage during his end-of-year media availability.
The main knock on Rossi is that he's undersized at 5-foot-9. He's a fierce competitor, a reliable goal scorer who has scored 20+ goals in back-to-back years and has solid two-way IQ, but teams sometimes hesitate to commit big dollars and term to players that lack size and elite speed.
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Evolving-Hockey and AFP Analytics believe Rossi should command an AAV in the $7.5 million range on a long-term deal. I'm skeptical that the Wild would commit that aggressively to him when they didn't even use him like a top-nine forward in the postseason. GM Bill Guerin, who has often prioritized size and grit while building his roster, may look at Rossi's small frame and conclude he isn't cut out to be the 2C on a contender.
A medium-term contract in the three- to five-year range, with a cheaper AAV in the $5-6 million neighborhood, could be a reasonable compromise, but is that in Rossi's best interest? He may either feel uncertain about his top-six role with the club or want to capitalize on his 60-point breakout with the security that a lucrative long-term contract provides.
Rossi isn't arbitration-eligible, so that reduces his leverage, but he could be an offer-sheet target considering how many teams will be shopping for center help this summer. It isn't far-fetched to think Rossi could become a trade chip if contract talks become difficult, even though there's a decent chance a trade would backfire against the Wild long-term.
Contract projections: eight years at $10.1 million (Evolving-Hockey), eight years at $10.3 million (AFP Analytics)
Noah Dobson and the Isles are in a tricky, high-stakes situation.
The 25-year-old exploded for 70 points and finished eighth in Norris Trophy voting in 2023-24. However, he's coming off a disappointing 2024-25 season where he produced just 39 points in 71 games. Dobson is an enormously talented top-pair defenseman, but his defensive play has flaws, and his offensive production has clearly vacillated.
A $10 million AAV projection for Dobson might seem too high given his down year, but he's paced for an average of 56 points per season over the last four years. Jakob Chychrun, who is also far from perfect defensively, recently earned $9 million AAV on an eight-year extension with the Capitals despite a career high of only 47 points. Chychrun is a more prolific scorer than Dobson, but the latter is a better overall point producer and player, excluding this season, and a more premium asset as a right-shot defenseman.
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For the Isles to commit a $10 million AAV to Dobson long-term, they'd have to be confident that he's a bona fide No. 1 defenseman, which is an open question at this point. New York could try exploring a four- to six-year deal at a lower cap hit, but would the player be open to that? Dobson has a lot of leverage here despite his down season — he's arbitration-eligible and only one year away from UFA status. If the Islanders aren't ready to pay Dobson like a No. 1 defenseman, he could file for arbitration, take the one-year settlement and walk himself to free agency next summer.
All of these dynamics — Dobson's down year, the $10 million AAV projection for a long-term deal and the leverage he has in arbitration — make this a challenging situation for the Islanders to navigate.
Contract projections: four years at $5.9 million (Evolving-Hockey), six years at $6 million (AFP Analytics)
K'Andre Miller, 25, has become a polarizing defenseman in New York.
Two years ago, Miller looked like one of the most promising young defensemen in the NHL, scoring 43 points and eating huge top-four minutes as a 23-year-old. He unfortunately stagnated in 2023-24, and took a clear step back this season.
The 6-foot-5 left shot committed costly turnovers, was at the center of tough defensive lapses and saw his offensive production slip to 27 points in 74 games in 2024-25. He has all the physical/athletic gifts in the world but struggles with his decision-making/hockey IQ at times.
Miller is already coming off a two-year, $3.872 million AAV bridge deal, so you'd assume he's looking for a lucrative, long-term payday this time around. That presents an interesting dilemma for the Rangers: Are they ready to invest long-term in him, or do they fear he's never going to reach the potential he flashed two years ago, in which case it may be prudent to sell him while he'd still be a very valuable asset around the league?
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I'd argue the Rangers should extend Miller and bet on a bounce-back for a few reasons:
• The Rangers' blue line, especially on the left side following Ryan Lindgren's departure, is thin on impact difference-makers. Miller is the Rangers' second-highest upside defenseman after Adam Fox.
• It'd be risky to give up on Miller without first seeing what a new Mike Sullivan-led coaching staff and system could do for his game. It's probably not a coincidence that almost every Rangers defenseman, Fox included, underperformed under Peter Laviolette and Phil Housley this season.
• Miller and Fox have posted dominant results together in the past, controlling 63 percent of shot attempts and 65 percent of expected goals in nearly 500 five-on-five minutes together over the last three seasons. They don't have a huge sample size together, but it's particularly relevant since Lindgren's departure means Fox needs a new partner next season.
Keeping Miller isn't a straightforward decision, though, because the Rangers have less than $10 million of cap space this summer, according to PuckPedia. They need to feel confident he'll rebound to justify handing out a long-term contract.
Contract projections: seven years at $7.8 million (AFP Analytics), six years at $6.8 million (Evolving-Hockey)
Don't be surprised if JJ Peterka can command an $8 million AAV, or at least close to it, on a long-term extension.
Matt Coronato, a 22-year-old winger, broke out this season with 24 goals and 47 points. He recently signed a seven-year extension with the Calgary Flames at a $6.5 million cap hit. Peterka's statistical profile is much stronger than Coronato's — he scored 68 points this season and scored 28 goals and 50 points in 2023-24. The 23-year-old Sabres winger is a higher-end, more proven top-six scorer than Coronato, and his price tag should reflect that.
Peterka is an excellent offensive creator, but his defensive impact was dreadful this season. During Peterka's five-on-five shifts, the Sabres bled 3.04 expected goals against per 60 and 3.35 actual goals against per 60, which was by far the worst mark among all Buffalo forwards. His defensive rating ranked in the bottom five percent of league forwards according to Dom Luszczyszyn's Net Rating model.
That's where the question lies for the Sabres. Do they believe Peterka is worth a potential $7.5-8 million cap hit moving forward, considering his defensive warts this season? Peterka is young enough that he should be able to improve his play without the puck, and it's worth noting that his defensive numbers weren't nearly as bad in 2023-24, so perhaps this year's nightmarish defensive numbers are just a one-off, but it's a question mark nonetheless.
I think the Sabres should bet on his talent and sign him long-term, but it's possible they could dangle him as a trade chip to shake up their core and address other needs, such as the club's dire need for top-four right-handed defense help.
(Top photo of Bowen Byram: Al Bello / Getty Images)
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