Trump should not fall for Putin's gambit
As Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear programme continues, the Kremlin is flexing its diplomatic muscles. Vladimir Putin offered his mediation service during his call with President Trump, who later emphasised that he 'would be open to it.' Russia has also restated its willingness to take uranium from Iran as part of a nuclear deal.
This plan would see Russia take control of highly enriched uranium produced by Iran and use it for energy production. Washington would be making a mistake if it relies on Moscow. President Trump should not fall for Putin's gambit as he is the arsonist who plays fireman.
Russia has a long history of falsely portraying itself as an impartial mediator in conflicts ranging from civil wars in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, and the Central African Republic to the conflict between Israel and Palestine, and even to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
For Vladimir Putin, stakes are very high in the growing conflict between Israel and Iran. This year, Russia ratified a strategic partnership agreement with Iran. Tehran has also supplied the Kremlin with Shahed drones and Fath-360 close-range ballistic missiles against Ukraine. That relationship goes beyond security.
Russian nationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin has stressed the importance of the International North-South Transport Corridor as a critical backbone of Russian-Iranian cooperation to bypass Western-controlled trade routes and reduce dependence on Western economies. Dugin has also envisioned an ideological alliance in which Russia and Iran are 'complementary regimes,' both defending traditionalist, religious and anti-liberal values against the West. At last, although Iran and Russia have divergent interests for Central Asia, they have a mutual enemy: the United States.
Russia is neither willing nor able to be an effective mediator for a variety of reasons. Most importantly, Putin wants to pander to President Trump to strengthen his position in negotiations on Ukraine. Moscow is using Tehran to distract from its aggression in Ukraine, offering the prospect that Russia could be a reliable partner to Washington to strengthen US-Russian relations. You almost have to admire Putin's cynicism, who perceives Washington as Russia's enemy. Should the US accept Russian support on Iran, Moscow would use it as leverage to extort greater concessions in ongoing negotiations on Ukraine.
And there is a bonus. Putin has openly called the demise of the Soviet Union the greatest political catastrophe of the 20th century, and his greatest ambition is to recast Russia as a global superpower and secure a seat at the table. Russia condemned Israel's attack on Iran as a breach of international law and plans to use the UN to seek legitimacy via Russia's UN Security Council veto. Diplomatic manoeuvring, at the UN and elsewhere, will seek to portray Moscow as a pillar of a 'multipolar world' and picture Russia as a superpower standing up against the United States.
Finally, after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's pro-Russian regime in Syria, the Kremlin suffered a strategic challenge in the Middle East. Putin wants to strengthen his position in the Middle East as he fears losing Iran – another crucial partner. On Tuesday, the Kremlin accused Israel of not being interested in seeking a mediation service, but Israel knows well Putin's record of duplicity and does not trust Moscow to act as a peace broker. Russia has neither the power nor desire to be a good faith mediator in the Middle East.
Putin has been trying to reset US-Russian relations on his terms, which are detrimental to the interests of the United States. Now, the Trump administration must not be fooled by Russia's diplomatic posturing. Washington should not let the fox into the henhouse and allow Russia to mediate between Israel and Iran.
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