Libya once again in the abyss of despair
https://arab.news/nr5ze
On May 12, Tripoli experienced widespread clashes between rival militias as Libya became the arena for the type of blood-letting and public disorder that recalled the horrors of civil conflicts and war that have devastated the country for more than a decade.
Both parts of the divided country, led by rival authorities in Tobruk and Tripoli, are overrun by militias. The administration in the east, headed by the House of Representatives in Tobruk, is supported by the Libyan Arab Armed Forces, commanded by Khalifa Haftar. His army controls political and financial institutions.
Haftar's forces also control Libya's oil-producing areas in the east that produce 1.2 million barrels a day. Oil revenues, which are deposited in the Central Bank of Libya, account for 97 percent of the government revenues required to pay for official expenses, salaries, and imports.
The latest turbulence has occurred in the west of the country, which is administered by the Government of National Unity headed by acting Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. Tripoli is home to three powerful militias: the Stability Support Authority; the Special Deterrence Force, also known as Radaa; and the 444 Brigade.
In early May, Dbeibah called for the dismantling of these militias. On May 12, after heavy fighting, the head of the Stability Support Authority, Abdulghani Kikli, was killed. He was the most powerful militia chief in Tripoli, controlling internal security and managing cash transfers from the central bank. Following his death, militias affiliated with Dbeibah, in particular the 444 Brigade, took over the assets of the Stability Support Authority, consolidating Dbeibah's hold on power.
Beginning on May 16, however, popular protests started to take place in Tripoli demanding Dbeibah's resignation. The demonstrators held him responsible for the power enjoyed by the militias, and for their own dire security and living conditions. After the protests were quelled by the security forces, Dbeibah took credit for 'ending the rule of militia and building a state of law.'
The latest violence in Tripoli has highlighted the fragility of a binary political order in Libya that has enfeebled state institutions, weaned predatory political leaders, and encouraged lawlessness and violence in the broken polity.
It has also placed Libya at the center of regional human-trafficking networks. The International Organization for Migration estimates that in January and February this year more than 700,000 migrants from 44 countries were waiting in Libya to make perilous sea journeys to Europe.
The latest violence in Tripoli has highlighted the fragility of a binary political order in Libya that has enfeebled state institutions.
Talmiz Ahmad
The rival leaders in Tripoli and Tobruk enjoy the support of one of two major external powers: Turkiye backs Tripoli, while Russia backs Tobruk. Turkiye has provided the Government of National Unity with armored vehicles, air defense systems, armed drones, and artillery.
Meanwhile, during a military parade in Benghazi on May 26, Haftar flaunted Russian-supplied weaponry that included air defense systems, helicopters, tanks, military trucks, rocket systems, and infantry fighting vehicles. The parade served to showcase his military prowess, and supported the Libyan Arab Armed Forces' claim to be the legitimate national army.
While Libya's leaders enrich themselves and feud with each other, their backers, Turkiye and Russia, are reaping strategic and economic benefits. Russia already has airbases at Al-Khadim and Al-Shatti, and is said to be looking to establish a Mediterranean naval base, possibly at Tobruk itself.
Turkiye's agreement with the Tripoli-based government in 2021 strengthened its claims to the energy resources of the Eastern Mediterranean. Since then, the country has obtained lucrative infrastructure contracts from the Tobruk government as well.
Russia views Libya as a strategic bridge to the Mediterranean and Africa. In the aftermath of the regime change in Syria, Moscow has targeted Libya as its principal geopolitical center for political, economic, and military outreach in Africa. Its interests on the continent, particularly in the Sahel, are being promoted by the Africa Corps, the successor to the Wagner Group, and are well-served from bases in Libya, particularl Maettan Al-Sarra close to the borders with Chad and Sudan.
So far, Turkiye and Russia have been pursuing a policy of 'managed rivalry,' as they have done previously in relation to Syria and the South Caucasus.
A recent analysis in an Arabic newspaper contrasted the current lawlessness and violence in western Libya with the unity, discipline, and security provided by Haftar in the east through the elimination of extremists and militias. The author suggested that before seeking free elections and a democratic government, Tripoli needs to establish law and order through a takeover by Haftar's forces and unite the country.
Possibly concerned by the corrosive effect of the national divide, Russia and Turkiye just might agree to unify Libya under Haftar. In September last year, there were reports that he was moving his troops to Ghadames, a strategically located oasis with an airport near the border with Tunisia and Algeria. This movement of his armed forces was seen as a precursor to the siege of Tripoli.
However, recent history tells us that although in times of disorder and violence military rule might seem alluring, once in power such rule rarely makes way for free and fair elections; instead, it remains entrenched for decades and grows increasingly autocratic, intolerant, and harsh.
Libya, sadly, is likely to be the latest example of this historical truth.
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