Philippine Developers Turn Cautious Amid Metro Manila Condominium Supply Glut
Philippine builders from Ayala Land to the billionaire Sy family's SM Prime are slowing down the construction and marketing of new high-rise housing projects as the real estate industry grapples with an oversupply of middle-income condominiums in Metro Manila.
Demand for condominiums ebbed after the government banned offshore gaming operators in the Philippines and the country's economic growth slowed, developers were left with more than 70,000 of unsold units as of end-2024, according to estimates by property consultants Colliers and Leechiu.
To move the inventory, developers have introduced creative pricing schemes to make the condominiums more affordable to buyers. The menu of enticements include low down payments, longer payment periods as well as rent-to-own schemes. Companies are also throwing in furniture and free parking space as well as helping buyers lease out their properties to prospective tenants.
'We are highly selective with new launches.'
While the promotions have spurred first-quarter take-up to rise 14% from fourth-quarter 2024 per Leechiu's assessment, developers have slowed the introduction of new projects. That should help minimize the oversupply, which Colliers estimates would take the market almost eight years to clear.
'Our outlook for the residential market in 2025 is cautiously optimistic,' Mybelle Aragon-Gobio, president and CEO of Robinsons Land, part of the billionaire Gokongwei family's JG Summit, told Forbes Asia. 'We are highly selective with new launches, focusing on high-demand locations, and we offer more flexible payment terms, to match what the market needs today.'
An artist impression of the 285-unit Aurelia Residences, a luxury condominium project being jointly developed by Robinsons Land and Shang Properties, controlled by Malaysian billionaire Robert Kuok and his family.
Ayala Land—which offers longer payment terms on some of its high-rise residential projects in Metro Manila—is focusing on horizontal developments, according to CEO Ma. Anna Margarita Dy.
The company spent 12.6 billion pesos ($227 million) in the first quarter on horizontal development projects outside of Metro Manila, Dy said. It will start marketing the bulk of its new residential projects in the second half when interest rates are seen to ease, she adds.
'We've just become more cautious based not so much on our inventory levels but on industry wide inventory levels,' Dy said. 'We will focus mostly on horizontal developments.' Ayala Land's sales in Metro Manila fell 15% in the first quarter, while those outside the capital region rose 3%.
While demand in the premium residential segment where properties are priced at 12 million pesos ($215,000) to 50 million each increased slightly during the quarter, Colliers noted that sale of units priced between 7 million pesos and 12 million pesos have been softening. Bulk of the oversupply is in this middle-income segment of the market, according to the property consultancy.
An artist's impression of The Crestmont, a 49-story residential tower DMCI Homes is building in Querzon City, north of Manila.
Meanwhile, demand for ultra luxury apartments priced at 50 million pesos and above remains robust, Colliers added. Ayala Land—the real estate arm of tycoon Jaime Zobel de Ayala's Ayala Corp., the country's oldest conglomerate—is set to launch in the second half a resort-themed luxury tower in Makati, building on the strong demand for Park Villas, a 51-story ultra-high-end residential tower at the heart of the central business district where each floor has a single unit priced at over 500 million pesos ($9 million) each.
DMCI Homes—controlled by tycoon Isidro Consunji and his family's DMCI Holdings—is offering buyers a rent-to-own option to make the company's projects more affordable, requiring minimal upfront costs. 'This setup offers a practical solution for those who are keen to secure a home but remain mindful of their financial commitments,' said Alfredo Austria, president of DMCI Homes.
Austria said the company's top selling residences are in prime locations, designed for resort living, as well as those offering smaller and more affordable units. 'This may indicate continued strong demand for well-located, value-driven properties that align with shifting buyer preferences,' he said. 'We expect these trends to persist in 2025.'
An artist's impression of the Air Residences, a residential skyscraper being built by SM Prime's SM Development Corp. at the heart of the Makati financial district.
SM Prime—controlled by the family of late retail tycoon Henry Sy Sr.—is also optimistic demand will pick up in the second half of this year with the central bank expected to further cut interest rates, the company's president Jeffrey Lim said.
While SM Prime is pushing forward its 360-hectare reclamation development in Manila Bay, Lim said the company is also building projects outside of Metro Manila where demand remains strong.
'Demand in provincial markets continues to be healthy.'
One of the projects SM Prime will start in the second half of this year is a 200-hectare upscale residential estate in Carmona, south of Metro Manila.
'Demand in provincial markets continues to be healthy, particularly in our integrated property developments,' Lim says. SM Prime has built more than 20 mixed-use projects that integrate residential, office and hotel properties around its shopping malls.
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