Why India's Budding EV Sector Has Opened Its Doors To China
For decades, China has driven the lion's share of oil demand growth thanks to its remarkable economic boom and large population. However, China is now losing its prominence in global oil markets due to a dramatic slowdown in its economy coupled with the country's ongoing electric vehicle revolution. Last year, nearly half of all new cars sold in China were electric vehicles, including both battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Indeed, China's rapid adoption of EVs, as well as rapid growth of high-speed rail and natural gas trucks, is displacing traditional fossil fuel demand, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicting that China's oil demand will peak as early as 2027. Ironically, the country that is taking over China's mantle in world oil markets is also aspiring to follow in its EV footsteps: India.
Unlike China, India's EV sector is still at its infancy, with electric vehicles accounting for just 2.5% of all cars sold in the country in 2024. However, India has big EV ambitions, with the Indian government having set a target for EVs to make up 30% of total passenger vehicle sales by 2030. To accomplish this, India's EV sector is forging close ties with Chinese EV manufacturers at a time when Washington has been keeping Chinese EV giants at bay. India is relying on Chinese EV tech to bridge the gap until the domestic sector is ready to compete on the global stage.
Industry analysts note that without access to Chinese technologies—including batteries, drivetrain components, and EV software—India would likely face slower product rollouts, limited model variety, and higher costs during its growth phase. This marks a clear pivot from just a few years ago, when India restricted the operations of firms like BYD and banned popular Chinese apps such as TikTok and Shein after deadly clashes at the border.Now, New Delhi appears to be taking a more calculated stance. In March, the government reduced tariffs on over 35 EV components, many of which are imported from China, making it easier for automakers to source critical parts. A few weeks later, India's Ministry of Heavy Industries unveiled a new EV policy slashing import duties on fully built EVs from 110% to 15%, provided manufacturers invest and set up local production. This dual-pronged approach aims to attract international players while building out domestic supply chains.
Experts view these shifts as pragmatic. Leading Indian EV makers—such as Tata Motors, Ola Electric, and Mahindra & Mahindra—continue to depend on Chinese vendors for components like battery cells, power control units, and electric motors, even though assembly is carried out in India.
'The aim is to build a resilient domestic ecosystem, not to isolate it, unlike the more aggressive decoupling seen in the U.S. with China,' said Shubham Munde, senior analyst at intelligence firm Market Research Future.
Yet this growing alignment between Indian and Chinese EV sectors is creating both opportunity and competition. MG Motor—a joint venture between India's JSW Group and China's state-owned automaker SAIC—has managed to double its market share over the past year, putting pressure on homegrown giants like Tata Motors. Its model, the MG Windsor, is now India's top-selling electric car, highlighting how joint ventures are gaining traction.
At the same time, India's EV landscape remains deeply fragmented. According to Bernstein Research, just four legacy automakers dominate 80% of the electric mobility market, leaving over 150 EV startups struggling to establish a foothold in an increasingly competitive space.
Government policy appears to be playing an outsized role in the EV trajectories of different countries. In its 2025 Electric Vehicles Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) cut both its near-term and long-term passenger EV adoption outlook in the United States for the first time ever, citing key policy changes including rollback of national fuel-economy targets as well as the removal of supportive elements of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) by the Trump administration.
In contrast, S&P Global Mobility has forecast strong growth for India's nascent EV sector, projecting that production of battery-electric passenger vehicles will increase by 140% year-over-year in 2025 to roughly 301,400 units. That would represent about 6% of the estimated 5.16 million passenger vehicles expected to be built in India that year.
Still, the road to India's 2030 goal may be steep. According to S&P, India would need to boost EV adoption by approximately 380 basis points annually to reach 30% market share—nearly double the current growth rate of around 200 basis points per year since 2021. Compounding the challenge is the lack of a unified long-term roadmap and the pending expiration of several state-level EV incentive programs.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.comRead this article on OilPrice.com
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