4 Timing Secrets That Fueled Billion-Dollar Venture Growth
Time to Takeoff: Get It Right!
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Most unicorn founders weren't first — they just mastered timing. These timing secrets fueled unicorn growth by helping entrepreneurs spot the right emerging trends early, act before takeoff, and use that narrow window to build the right strategy and skills to lead the industry. That's how Sam Walton beat Kmart, Jeff Bezos won over Borders, and Mark Zuckerberg overtook MySpace — without needing early venture capital and often beating those who had more capital.
Here are 4 key timing secrets of Founder-CEOs who achieved rapid growth and market dominance.
Just like ChatGPT, DeepSeek, and Mistral, unicorns are best launched when the industry is just emerging. The key to building a unicorn is entering the right emerging trend — for you — at the right time. This is after the industry starts and before it takes off and this time period has ranged from about 3 to 11 years (https://www.forbes.com/sites/dileeprao/2024/02/27/mark-cubans-surprising-advice-should-entrepreneurs-heed-it/):
• After the start because major trends are started by external factors – not by an entrepreneur. These factors can include disruptive technologies, new laws, and economic changes.
• Before takeoff because it is difficult even for existing giants to catch up, as is demonstrated by Sears, Wards and the countless other giants crushed by upstart billion-dollar entrepreneurs.
Nearly every billion-dollar entrepreneur took advantage of an emerging trend, including:
• Big-box stores: Sam Walton (Walmart) and Dick Schulze (Best Buy).
• Personal computers: Bill Gates (Microsoft) and Michael Dell (Dell)
• Linking PCs: Leonard Bosack and Sandy Lerner (Cisco)
• Internet 1.0: Jeff Bezos (Amazon.com) and Page and Brin (Google)
• Internet 2.0: Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook/ Meta)
• Internet 3.0: Travis Kalanick (Uber) and Brian Chesky (Airbnb).
What can you do? Emerging trends often take 3 to 11 years to take off – but your window to enter is at the beginning, not after takeoff. The earlier you start, the more time you'll have to refine your strategy and build dominance.
When you enter the trend is important. The winners are rarely first movers. They're usually first dominators.
One of the key reasons why only about 11% of first movers led their industry (https://www.forbes.com/sites/dileeprao/2017/01/24/first-movers-seldom-win-first-dominators-mainly-do/?sh=4fb7713d19a1) is that first-to-market or even a product-market fit is often not enough. The winners are those who dominate, not those who rush. The ultimate winners are usually smart followers. In artificial intelligence, IBM was the first, but many other companies, including ChatGPT, seem to be leading. Examples of smart followers included Sam Walton in the big-box trend, Bill Gates in the personal computer trend, Steve Jobs in the iPod and iPhone trends, and Brian Chesky in the online trend (https://www.forbes.com/sites/dileeprao/2024/09/10/unicorn-entrepreneur-mode-4-steps-to-surpass-founder--manager-modes/). Alex Karp noted that some in Europe are waiting for the right moment to get in on AI, and that they will rue their delay. His point – get in now or miss a major emerging trend.
What can you do? If you are the first mover, keep pivoting to find the right strategy (see #3). If you are the smart mover, find the neglected segment that can be targeted by the emerging trend.
Finding the right strategy is key because each emerging trend is different. Product-market fit gets you started. But domination requires the right combination of product, market, strategic group, sales driver, and unicorn-launch skills:
• Walmart: Found his niche in rural locations by pivoting from small stores.
• Gates: Found his edge with a strategic alliance with IBM by pivoting from writing programs.
• Dell: Dominated by selling direct-to-consumer.
• Bezos: Launched with books to dominate.
• Chesky: Focused on helping landlords find guests and pivoted from guests.
What can you do? Most unicorns didn't guess their way into dominance — they learned, pivoted, and refined until they found the dominant strategy. You may have to do so also. So be flexible to pivot and test to find the right strategy – this takes time.
Unicorn-entrepreneurs rely on skills to grow from idea to unicorn. They do not rely on VCs or their hired CEOs. They learn both technical skills (or partner with someone who has them) and unicorn-launch skills. Gaston Taratuta didn't jump in blindly – he learned the skills to enter the emerging Internet trend by joining Universo Online in Brazil and then scaled Aleph into a billion-dollar company (https://www.forbes.com/sites/dileeprao/2024/01/24/bootstrapping-unicorns-7-finance-smart-insights-from-gaston-taratuta/).
What can you do? Identify the unicorn-launch skills you lack. Then learn, test, and practice them before the trend takes off. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/dileeprao/2024/12/06/unlock-your-growth-potential-5-keys-from-unicorn-entrepreneurs/).
MY TAKE: Timing isn't about being first. It's about being ready — with the right skills, strategy, and edge — before the trend takes off. Jump in when the trend begins, then use the runway to master your skills, evaluate your strategy, and position yourself to dominate when the trend takes off. Or better yet – be the leader who makes the trend take off. Learn how the top 125 billion-dollar entrepreneurs did it — often without VC. Read my other blogs on Forbes.
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